Raleigh, N.C. – For the Democrats to compete in a statewide race in Utah, they would need an extraordinarily popular candidate, and they could have it in Congressman Jim Matheson. As is true for Orrin Hatch’s Senate seat, Republicans will have no trouble holding onto the governorship in Utah unless Matheson chooses to run.
Incumbent Governor Gary Herbert is looking quite strong, with a 51-32 approval rating. While independents do not like him, giving him a 34-44 rating, Herbert garners a significant amount of crossover support, earning 27% approval among Democrats, and holds a 71-14 rating among Republicans. Herbert is popular among fellow Mormons, garnering a 62-20 rating with them, compared to only a 25-59 rating among non-Mormons. Luckily for Herbert, Mormons make up 70% of the state.
A +19 approval rating for a Republican governor in one of the reddest states in the nation should be a recipe for a huge landslide. Against most of his possible opponents, this is true. Herbert leads Salt Lake City Mayor Peter Corroon, 55-32, and holds a 56-29 advantage against former Utah Attorney General Jan Graham. However, against Matheson, it is a whole different story. Herbert holds only a 45-43 lead against the congressman.
Matheson achieves such competitiveness by locking in Democrats, 83-10, garnering a fair amount of Republicans support, 18-73, and crushing Herbert with independents 57-23. There is a particularly large age gap in Utah, with Matheson garnering his strongest numbers among 18- to 29-year-olds, with whom he leads, 55-29. On the other hand, voters over 65 go for Herbert, 52-39.
“Democrats could have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to compete statewide in Utah,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The problem is: Jim Matheson can only run for one office.”
PPP surveyed 732 Utah voters from July 8th to 10th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Gary Herbert’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 51%
Disapprove………… 32%
Not sure ……………. 17%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Peter Corroon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q3 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Gary Herbert and Democrat Peter
Corroon, who would you vote for?
Gary Herbert …………………………………………… 55%
Peter Corroon …………………………………………. 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q4 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Gary Herbert and Democrat Jan
Graham, who would you vote for?
Gary Herbert …………………………………………… 56%
Jan Graham……………………………………………. 29%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Gary Herbert and Democrat Jim
Matheson, who would you vote for?
Gary Herbert …………………………………………… 45%
Jim Matheson …………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q6 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 25%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 29%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 23%
Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q8 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 22%
Republican……………………………………………… 50%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 28%
Q9 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 94%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
Q11 Are you a Mormon or another religion?
Mormon………………………………………………….. 70%
Another religion……………………………………….. 30%
