Raleigh, N.C. – Despite losing Utah to John McCain by 28 points, President Obama has a chance to make the race much more competitive in 2012—that is, if the Republicans nominate someone who is not a Mormon. Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman both earn 63% of the vote against the president—14 to 20 points higher than any of the other four potential nominees. Against Huntsman, Obama gets only 23% of the vote, and 31% against Romney. But he trails Michele Bachmann by half his 2008 loss margin, 49-35, and is even closer against Tim Pawlenty, 45-34. He also lags Herman Cain only 43-36, and essentially ties Sarah Palin, 43-41.
Of the 44 states in which PPP has polled, Utah gives Obama a worse approval rating than all but Wyoming and Kentucky, with 32% approving and 62% disapproving. But for such a red state, they do not particularly like any of the non-Mormon Republicans either. Romney has a 63-29 favorable-unfavorable margin, and Huntsman a 54-36, some of the best numbers for a Republican anywhere. But it is downhill for the GOP from there, with Cain at 19-33, Bachmann at 29-44, Pawlenty at 17-38, and Palin at 32-58.
On top of that, the 30% of the population that does not affiliate with Mormonism would be perhaps the bluest state in the country. Two-thirds of them approve of the president’s job performance, a level PPP has measured nowhere else, and they hate all the Republicans but Huntsman, who actually has a higher favorability rating (66-29) with them than with his own religion (50-40). Non-Mormon Utahns support Obama by nine points over Huntsman, 40 over Romney, 43 over Bachmann, 46 over Pawlenty, 47 over Cain, and 51 over Palin. Huntsman has a 69% favorability rating with Democrats and 61% with independents, but only 44% with his own party.
“Undecided Republicans would probably end up rallying around the GOP nominee, whoever he or she is, but right now, Utahns don’t like anyone but the Mormon candidates,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 732 Utah voters from July 8th to 10th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 32%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Huntsman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 35%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 36%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Tim
Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 34%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 31%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 63%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Jon
Huntsman, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 23%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 63%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 25%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 29%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 23%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 22%
Republican……………………………………………… 50%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 28%
Q17 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 94%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
Q19 Are you a Mormon or another religion?
Mormon………………………………………………….. 70%
Another religion……………………………………….. 30%
