Raleigh, N.C. – Utah is perhaps the most Republican state in the country, and in most any statewide election, Democrats can only dream of seriously competing. However, if Congressman Jim Matheson makes a run for the Senate next year, Democrats could have a pick up opportunity in a state where Republicans outnumber Democrats 50-22.
If Senator Orrin Hatch faces Matheson in the general, they would start out deadlocked with Matheson leading 45-44. Against Matheson, Hatch leads only 72-20 among Republicans, and gets slaughtered with Independents, losing them 22-59. Hatch would have no problem dispatching any other Democrat. He leads former Utah Attorney General Jan Graham 55-34, and Utah Department of Alcoholic Beverage Control chairman Sam Granato 56-31. If Congressman Jason Chaffetz wins the GOP nomination, he would trail Matheson 42-47, but lead Graham 53-34 and Granato 54-33.
Hatch could face a tough fight in both the primary and general, and his tepid approval isn’t helping. 46% approve while 43% disapprove. Hatch receives a decent amount of crossover support, rating 22-71 among Democrats, but receives a miserable rating of 29-60 among independents. The good news for Hatch is that Republicans still approve 67-22, and only 26% feel he is too liberal compared to 59% who feel he is about right.
To run so strongly in Utah, a Democrat would need an outstanding favorability spread, and Matheson has it. 59% of Utah voters see Matheson favorably, compared to only 28% who see him unfavorably. He rates a good 76-15 among Democrats, a great 58-28 among independents, and a phenomenal 52-33 among Republicans. This makes Matheson the second most popular politician among members of the opposing party PPP has polled.
“That Matheson can run neck and neck with Republicans in Utah is a testament to his popularity,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Taking a senate seat in Utah will require a heroic effort from Democrats, but if there is a way, Matheson is it.”
PPP surveyed 732 Utah voters from July 8th to 10th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Orrin
Hatch’s job performance?
Approve ……………… 46%
Disapprove………….. 43%
Not sure ……………… 11%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jason Chaffetz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jan Graham?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sam Granato?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Matheson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 59%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q6 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Orrin Hatch and Democrat Jan
Graham, who would you vote for?
Orrin Hatch …………………………………………….. 55%
Jan Graham……………………………………………. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Orrin Hatch and Democrat Sam
Granato, who would you vote for?
Orrin Hatch …………………………………………….. 56%
Sam Granato ………………………………………….. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Orrin Hatch and Democrat Jim
Matheson, who would you vote for?
Orrin Hatch …………………………………………….. 44%
Jim Matheson …………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Jason Chaffetz and Democrat Jan
Graham, who would you vote for?
Jason Chaffetz………………………………………… 53%
Jan Graham……………………………………………. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Jason Chaffetz and Democrat Sam
Granato, who would you vote for?
Jason Chaffetz………………………………………… 54%
Sam Granato ………………………………………….. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q11 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Jason Chaffetz and Democrat Jim
Matheson, who would you vote for?
Jason Chaffetz………………………………………… 42%
Jim Matheson …………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q12 Do you think that Orrin Hatch is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 20%
Too conservative……………………………………… 32%
About right ……………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 25%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 29%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 23%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 22%
Republican……………………………………………… 50%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 28%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 94%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
Q18 Are you a Mormon or another religion?
Mormon………………………………………………….. 70%
Another religion……………………………………….. 30%
