Public Policy Polling

Americans love Hawaii, dislike California

Raleigh, N.C. – Over the course of four months starting last October, PPP asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

Americans generally have a favorable view of most states.  Only five are in negative territory, led by California (27% favorable and 44% unfavorable), Illinois (19-29), New Jersey (25-32), Mississippi (22-28), and Utah (24-27).  Only seven other states have net-positive ratings in the single digits, and another breaks even (Louisiana).

State favorability poll

Over the course of four months starting last October, we asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

State	+/-	Margin
Hawaii	54-10	44
Colorado	44-9	35
Tennessee	48-14	34
South Dakota	42-8	34
Virginia	45-13	32
Montana	39-7	32
Alaska	46-17	29
Oregon	43-14	29
North Carolina	40-11	29
Pennsylvania	40-11	29
Washington	43-17	26
Kentucky	42-16	26
Iowa	42-17	25
Oklahoma	40-16	24
Vermont	39-15	24
Wisconsin	40-17	23
Wyoming	34-11	23
Florida	43-21	22
North Dakota	33-11	22
Missouri	32-11	21
New Hampshire	37-18	19
Indiana	31-12	19
Idaho	30-11	19
Nebraska	29-11	18
Arizona	39-22	17
Michigan	38-21	17
Maine	32-15	17
Ohio	34-18	16
Delaware	32-16	16
Maryland	31-15	16
South Carolina	34-19	15
New Mexico	30-15	15
Kansas	28-13	15
New York	40-29	11
Georgia	31-20	11
Minnesota	27-17	10
Rhode Island	26-16	10
Texas	40-31	9
Massachusetts	35-27	8
West Virginia	23-15	8
Arkansas	25-20	5
Connecticut	26-22	4
Nevada	28-26	2
Alabama	27-26	1
Louisiana	24-24	0
Utah	24-27	-3
Mississippi	22-28	-6
New Jersey	25-32	-7
Illinois	19-29	-10
California	27-44	-17

Texans disinclined to re-elect Perry

Raleigh, N.C. – In the wake of his failed presidential bid, Texas voters say they would vote for someone else instead of Rick Perry if he ran for reelection as Governor in 2014. A full 62% of voters say they would prefer someone else over Perry, with just 32% saying they would support Perry and only 5% unsure. 68% of independents and 37% of Republicans indicated they would support someone else over Perry.

“Texans’ esteem for Rick Perry has dropped considerably in the aftermath of his disastrous presidential bid,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “He’s got some work to do if he plans on running for office again in Texas.”

Texas Odds and Ends

-Rick Perry left the door open last week for seeking another term as Governor of Texas, but voters in the state might shut it on him. Only 32% say they would vote for Perry again in 2014, while 62% say they'd prefer someone else. He could probably win nomination for another term, because 56% of Republicans say they would support him. The general election might be a different issue though, with 68% of independents saying it's time for someone new while only 24% still support Perry.

-Both of Texas' Senators are more popular than their state's Governor.  Kay Bailey Hutchison (a +8 spread at 45/37) and John Cornyn (a +7 spread at 42/35) have nearly identical numbers. Cornyn is more popular with Republicans (62% approval to Hutchison's 58%), but Hutchison is more popular with Democrats (31% approval to Cornyn's 19%.)

-Texas voters have a very negative opinion of Jerry Jones, with only 14% rating him favorably to 48% who hold a negative opinion. I'm pretty sure that -34 spread represents the worst poll numbers we've ever found for someone in Texas. Voters are more charitable toward the state's other celebrity sports owner, Mark Cuban, who has a 29% favorability rating with 28% expressing a negative opinion toward him. Asked which of the two they like more Texans pick Cuban by a 34-22 margin.

Republicans have advantage in Texas Senate contest

Raleigh, N.C. –  The Texas Senate race remains largely unformed with voters barely able to render an opinion on any of the six candidates tested. Republican Lt. Governor David Dewhurst is the only candidate on either side that a majority of voters have an opinion about, with 29% holding a favorable opinion, 31% unfavorable and 40% not sure.

Even Dewhurst doesn’t have a net favorable rating, and neither do any of the other candidates – Republican former Solicitor General Ted Cruz is at 12/19 with 69% unknown, Democrat Sean Hubbard is at 6/18 with 75% unknown, Republican Craig James comes in at 9/24 with 67% unknown, Republican former Mayor of Dallas Tom Leppert clocks in at 17/20 with 63% unknown, and Democratic former State Rep. Paul Sadler’s at 7/18 with 75% unknown.

Looking at head to head matchups, Dewhurst fares the strongest, perhaps not surprisingly due to his higher name recognition. He leads Hubbard 48-31 and leads Sadler 49-31 – nearly identical leads against both potential challengers we tested.  The other Republicans beat their Democratic challengers by around 10 points each time, reflecting the party ID in the state and essentially becoming de facto “Generic Republican v. Generic Democrat” contests.

GOP up big in Texas Senate race

Republicans start out with a strong advantage in the Texas Senate race to replace the retiring Kay Bailey Hutchison.  In 8 match ups pitting four different Republicans against two Democrats, the GOP candidate leads by at least an 8 point margin in every one.

David Dewhurst is the best known candidate at this point and, not coincidentally, also the strongest. 60% of voters have an opinion about him with no one else known to more than 37% of the electorate. Dewhurst leads Paul Sadler by 18 points at 49-31 and Sean Hubbard by 17 at 48-31.

The most unpopular candidate is Craig James.  His net favorability is -15 with only 9% of voters holding a positive opinion of him to 24% with a negative one. The only match up we tested where the Republican candidate did not have a double digit lead was the one between James and Hubbard, on which James has only a 40-32 advantage. James leads Sadler 42-32. It looks like the Democrats' best hope at winning this seat is for the Republicans to somehow end up nominating James.

Tom Leppert narrowly edges out Ted Cruz as the second strongest potential GOP candidate for the general election. He leads Hubbard 43-32 and Sadler 44-31.  Cruz's advantages are 39-29 over Hubbard and 41-31 over Sadler.

None of the Democratic candidates have much name recognition so the race could get closer, but for now the GOP looks to have a strong advantage.

Full results here

Perry leads Obama by only one point in Texas

Raleigh, N.C. – Rick Perry’s standing in the state he has served as governor for about 12 years has declined along with that in the country at large.  His 42% approval rating at home is actually lower than President Obama’s 44% approval in Texas.  The president’s standing on that front is up four points since PPP last polled the state in September, with Perry’s down three.  As such, Perry only leads the president by one point (48-47), versus a seven-point (51-44) lead four months ago.

The only candidate Obama beats in the Lone Star State is Newt Gingrich, who trails by two points (45-47).  Obama trails his most likely opponent, Mitt Romney, by seven points (42-49); Rick Santorum by the exact same margin; and one of the state’s congressmen, Ron Paul, by six (40-46).

Perry's standing diminished in Texas

Rick Perry had fallen so far by the end of his Presidential campaign that it's not even clear he could have defeated Barack Obama in Texas.  Our poll of the state last weekend found Perry leading Obama just 48-47, including a 51-44 deficit with independents. Perry had led Obama by 7 points on a September poll there.

Perry will come home to only a 42% approval rating, with 51% of voters disapproving of him. He's fallen from 78% to 67% favor with Republicans over the last four months, and independents split against him 35/59. By comparison Obama's approval rating in Texas is 44%, although his disapproval is also higher than Perry's at 54%.

Our Texas Presidential poll is another reminder that a Gingrich surge would be very good news for President Obama. Obama actually holds a slight edge over him, 47-45. Only 33% of Texans have a favorable opinion of Gingrich to 53% with a negative one.

The GOP would start out ahead with any of its other potential nominees: Romney and Santorum lead Obama by identical 7 point margins at 49-42, and Paul has a 6 point advantage at 46-40. Democrats' dream of turning Texas to the blue column doesn't seem likely to come true this year unless they get the gift of running against Gingrich.

Romney leads in Texas, Dewhurst leading Senate primary

Raleigh, N.C. – Mitt Romney narrowly leads a divided field in the Texas Republican Presidential primary, while home state Governor Rick Perry has fallen to 3^rd place.

When we polled Texas last September, Rick Perry was in the driver’s seat with 49% compared to 10% for Mitt Romney in second place. Perry now commands less than half that support in his home state, clocking in at 18% with Romney garnering 24% and Gingrich at 23%. Santorum takes 15% while fellow Texan Ron Paul comes in 5^th with 12%.

Romney even leads Perry in a head-to-head matchup among Republican Texas Primary voters, 46-45 – a striking reversal from our last poll when Perry led 72-18. Romney also leads Gingrich head-to-head (43-42) and Paul (a whopping 64-25). The only candidate who beats Romney head-to-head in Texas is Rick Santorum (45-42), but it’s unclear if he’ll ever get the chance to do battle with Romney with the Republican field sufficiently narrowed.

Romney, Dewhurst lead in Texas

Rick Perry's Presidential campaign is doing about as bad in Texas now as it is everywhere else in the country. When PPP last polled the state in September he was at 49%, leading Mitt Romney by 39 points.  Now Perry's support has declined by 31 points, leaving him in 3rd place at 18%. Mitt Romney at 24% and Newt Gingrich at 23% lead the way with Rick Santorum at 15%, Ron Paul at 12%, and Buddy Roemer at 0% rounding out the field behind Perry.

What might be most shocking on this poll is that Romney edges Perry 46-45 if Republican voters had to pick just between the two of them. When we asked that identical question four months ago Perry led Romney 72-18.  There's been a 55 point shift in Romney's direction.

It's not just that Texas Republicans are no longer planning to vote for Perry- a lot of them even feel that Perry's candidacy has hurt Texas' image.  39% of GOP voters think his candidacy has been a negative for perceptions of the state, while only 13% believe it's been a positive.   By comparison just 28% of primary voters believe Ron Paul's campaign has been bad for the state's image to 19% who believe it's been a positive.

Beyond being bad news for Perry these numbers show the extent to which Republicans are starting to unify around Romney.  He's consistently fared pretty poorly in our Texas polling but he's gained 14 points of support over the last four months to take this modest lead. If he's ahead in Texas he's probably ahead just about everywhere.