Polls

Abbott expands lead over Davis in Texas

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s newest poll of next year’s race for Governor of Texas finds Republican Greg Abbott expanding his lead over Democrat Wendy Davis. Abbott now has a 15 point advantage at 50/35. That’s up a good amount from our last poll, conducted the week of Davis’ famous filibuster, when Abbott led just 48/40. But it’s pretty comparable to what we found in January when he had a 46/34 lead.

As Davis has become better known to Texans, her negatives have risen. 36% of voters have a favorable opinion of her to 42% with an unfavorable one. In June it was a positive 39/29 spread, meaning she’s dropped a net 16 points since then. Voters are kind of indifferent toward Abbott, with 35% rating him favorably, 32% unfavorably, and 33% not having an opinion either way.

Rick Perry’s retirement probably hurt Davis’ prospects for being elected Governor. Perry continues to be unpopular with 45% of voters approving of the job he’s doing to 50% who disapprove. Those numbers are identical to where they were in June, indicating that Perry hasn’t received any sort of post retirement announcement bounce as politicians sometimes do.

One thing that could improve Davis’ prospects is if 2010 Republican Gubernatorial candidate Debra Medina goes through with an independent campaign for Governor next year. She pulls 9% and with her in the mix Abbott’s lead gets reduced to 10 points with him at 47% and Davis at 37%.

There is some good news for Davis within the poll. Voters narrowly oppose the abortion law that put her in the spotlight, 40/41, including 37/48 opposition among independent voters. Concern that she may have difficulty in the election because she’s seen as too liberal on that particular issue may not be warranted.

“Greg Abbott starts out as a clear favorite in the Texas Governor’s race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Wendy Davis needs to win independents and pull a decent amount of Republican support if she’s going to be successful, and at this early stage she’s not doing that.”

PPP surveyed 500 Texas voters from November 1st to 4th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.4%. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Perry’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .45%
Disapprove…………. .50%
Not sure …………….. . 5%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Abbott?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Wendy Davis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%

Q4 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Greg Abbott and Democrat Wendy
Davis, who would you vote for?
Greg Abbott ……………………………………………. 50%
Wendy Davis…………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Debra Medina?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%

Q6 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Greg Abbott, Democrat Wendy
Davis, and independent Debra Medina, who
would you vote for?
Greg Abbott ……………………………………………. 47%
Wendy Davis…………………………………………… 37%
Debra Medina …………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q7 If the candidates for Lieutenant Governor next
year were Republican David Dewhurst and
Democrat Leticia Van de Putte, who would you
vote for?
David Dewhurst ………………………………………. 46%
Leticia Van de Putte…………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q8 Do you support or oppose the abortion law that
was passed in Texas this summer?
Support ………………………………………………….. 40%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q9 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 53%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%

Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 25%

Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%

Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 42%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 24%

Q13 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 19%
White …………………………………………………….. 63%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%

Q14 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 33%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%

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