Raleigh, N.C. –
South Dakota might be next on the list of states where Republicans have a
bruising Senate primary. Our first look at the state for 2014 finds Mike Rounds
and Kristi Noem closely locked in a hypothetical contest, with Rounds leading
just 43/39. Noem's favorability rating with GOP voters at 71/18 is slightly
better than Rounds' 67/17.
Overall voters in the state have a positive opinion of both Rounds (51/34
favorability) and Noem (49/42). They're closely divided in their views about
incumbent Tim Johnson with 44% of voters approving of the job he's doing to 45%
who disapprove. Rounds leads Johnson 52/41 in a hypothetical match up with Noem
leading Johnson 49/45.
If Johnson were to retire, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin remains a popular
figure in the state and may actually increase Democrats' chances at keeping the
race competitive. She has a 52/37 favorability rating with 30% of Republicans
holding a positive opinion of her, the kind of crossover appeal that's
necessary for a Democrat to win in a state like South Dakota. Herseth Sandlin
would lead Noem 48/47 in a rematch of their 2010 contest, and would start out
trailing Rounds by a 49/44 margin.
South Dakota might be next on the list of states where Republicans have a bruising Senate primary. Our first look at the state for 2014 finds Mike Rounds and Kristi Noem closely locked in a hypothetical contest, with Rounds leading just 43/39. Noem's favorability rating with GOP voters at 71/18 is slightly better than Rounds' 67/17.
Overall voters in the state have a positive opinion of both Rounds (51/34 favorability) and Noem (49/42). They're closely divided in their views about incumbent Tim Johnson with 44% of voters approving of the job he's doing to 45% who disapprove. Rounds leads Johnson 52/41 in a hypothetical match up with Noem leading Johnson 49/45.
If Johnson were to retire, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin remains a popular figure in the state and may actually increase Democrats' chances at keeping the race competitive. She has a 52/37 favorability rating with 30% of Republicans holding a positive opinion of her, the kind of crossover appeal that's necessary for a Democrat to win in a state like South Dakota. Herseth Sandlin would lead Noem 48/47 in a rematch of their 2010 contest, and would start out trailing Rounds by a 49/44 margin.
Raleigh, N.C. – Over the course of four months starting last October, PPP asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are. Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.
Americans generally have a favorable view of most states. Only five are in negative territory, led by California (27% favorable and 44% unfavorable), Illinois (19-29), New Jersey (25-32), Mississippi (22-28), and Utah (24-27). Only seven other states have net-positive ratings in the single digits, and another breaks even (Louisiana).
Over the course of four months starting last October, we asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are. Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.
Raleigh, N.C. – Results PPP released Tuesday showed John Thune as the only candidate who would clearly blow President Obama out of the water in Thune’s home state of South Dakota, an eternally red state which could otherwise turn marginally competitive, especially if Sarah Palin is the nominee. Thune’s Republican base in the state wants to give him that nomination by a 3:1 margin over the next closest competitor, but if he chooses to stay out, the primary contest would be a four-way statistical tie.
John Thune is the strong choice of South Dakota Republicans to be their nominee for President next year. 37% say he would be their top pick to 12% for Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, 11% for Mike Huckabee, 10% for Newt Gingrich, 5% for Ron Paul, 2% for Tim Pawlenty, and 1% for Mitch Daniels.
Thune's performance in his home state may seem unremarkable- you would expect a native son candidate to do well. This is actually more the exception than the rule in PPP's 2012 Republican polling though. Mitt Romney does very well in Massachusetts, polling at 47%. But beyond that Tim Pawlenty gets just 24% in Minnesota, Jim DeMint 24% in South Carolina, Sarah Palin 15% in Alaska, Rick Santorum 11% in Pennsylvania, and Rick Perry 9% in Texas. There was a little discussion last week about the possibility of native son candidates returning to the nomination picture in 2012, but in most of the states we've polled Republicans don't seem real interested in supporting their home state candidates.
South Dakota's not going to be terribly relevant to either the Republican nomination process or the general election next year but it seems to me that a good first test for whether you're going to be viable at the Presidential level is whether your current constituents like you and on that front Thune fares a lot better than most of the rest of the GOP potentials.
If you take Thune out of the picture in South Dakota Sarah Palin nabs a rare first place finish, albeit by the smallest of margins. She gets 21% to 19% for Huckabee, 17% for Romney, 12% for Gingrich, 7% for Paul, 5% for Pawlenty, and 1% for Daniels. The most noteworthy thing there might be Pawlenty's low level of support- you would expect him to do better in a neighboring state.
Raleigh, N.C. – Popular former at-large Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin was one of the casualties of the Republican wave election last November, falling to Kristi Noem by just over two points in one of the closest battles of the season. In PPP’s first test of a potential rematch for 2012, Herseth Sandlin leads by a single point.
Herseth Sandlin was first elected in a special election in 2004, re-upped that fall at the same time as longtime Democratic leader Tom Daschle was defeated by John Thune, and sent to two more terms in 2006 and 2008. She remains extremely well liked, with a 55-36 favorability margin, which pales Noem’s meager 38-35 approval rating for her short time in office so far. Even 28% of Republicans have positive views of Herseth Sandlin, and independents favor her by a 65-27 margin. Noem, meanwhile, has a 31-42 standing with unaffiliated voters, and she polarizes the two parties.
-Stephanie Herseth Sandlin may be the poster child for how thoroughly nationalized last year's House races got, with how voters felt about the candidates themselves taking a back seat to how they generally felt about the direction of the country. 55% of South Dakota voters have a favorable opinion of her to only 36% with a negative one. That puts her in about the 90th percentile of popularity for all the politicians we poll on. And she lost anyway.
Herseth Sandlin would be viable in a hypothetical rematch against Kristi Noem. She leads 46-45, including a 52-31 advantage with independents. Herseth Sandlin only lost by a couple points last year so her polling three points better on the margin now than she did in November seems pretty consistent with the national shift toward the Democrats over the last three months.
Noem's only been in office for a month so it's no surprise that voters don't have really strong opinions about her performance so far- 38% think she's doing a good job, 35% a bad one, and 27% have no opinion.
-Tim Johnson has pretty solid approval numbers with 47% of voters approving of him and 41% disapproving. The Democratic base is pretty unified in their approval of him, he's very popular with independents at a 54/34 spread, and 21% of Republicans think he's doing a good job which is at least a little bit ahead of the national curve when it comes to crossover popularity. He's not nearly as popular as Herseth Sandlin though so it's a pretty darn good thing for Democrats that he wasn't up for reelection last year and isn't next.
-Tom Daschle and George McGovern may have both seen their careers in elected office end in defeat at the ballot box in South Dakota, but with the passage of time the state's voters look back favorably on both of them. 49% have a favorable opinion of Daschle to 41% with a negative one and 42% give McGovern positive reviews to 29% who have an unfavorable opinion of him. Both are pretty universally well liked by the Democratic base and have very solid numbers with independents, but only 19% each are rated favorably by Republicans and in a strongly GOP leaning state that lack of crossover appeal is why they eventually lost their Senate seats.
-Finally, new Governor Dennis Daugaard starts out his tenure with decent numbers at 43% approving and 33% disapproving.
Raleigh, N.C. – Unless the GOP nominates favorite son John Thune, South Dakota could become a marginally competitive presidential swing state in 2012. President Obama lost to John McCain by less than nine points in 2008, closer than the state usually comes to turning blue. But the president trails Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, the two strongest challengers right now, by respective 47-41 and 46-40 margins, and beats Newt Gingrich, 44-42, and Sarah Palin, 48-40. Thune, however, would put the state out of reach, winning it, 57-37.
There are two interesting story lines for next year's Presidential race in South Dakota: it's one of the few states we've polled that responds positively to a home state candidate and despite the fact that a Democrat hasn't won it in a Presidential contest since 1964 Barack Obama leads Sarah Palin by 8 points there.
John McCain took the state by 8 points in 2008 and if Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney was the Republican nominee next year they'd win by margins similar to that. Huckabee leads Obama 47-41 and Romney has an identical 6 point advantage at a 46-40 spread.
If the GOP went with Newt Gingrich or Sarah Palin as its nominee Obama's prospects for picking up the state would improve dramatically. Against Gingrich he holds a slight lead at 44-42 and pitted against Palin that increases to a somewhat remarkable 48-40.
The one potential candidate who would completely blow Obama out of the water is John Thune. He leads the President by 20 points in a hypothetical contest, 57-37. Thune is the first of the potential Republican candidates we've polled who's really done well in their home state. Tim Pawlenty trails Obama in Minnesota by a wider margin than Romney does. Rick Perry ties Obama in Texas even as the rest of the Republican candidates lead him. Chris Christie is down double digits in New Jersey and doesn't do any better than Romney or Huckabee. We haven't tested any head to heads in Alaska but voters there hate Sarah Palin now. Mitt Romney does better than the other Republicans in Masschusetts but still trails by a wide margin and Rick Santorum can't even finish in the top four for a primary contest in Pennsylvania. So South Dakota's strong support of a Thune run is more the exception than the rule in our 2012 polling to date.
Thune's strong showing is no surprise given that he's one of the most popular Senators in the country. His home state approval rating is 58% with only 31% of voters disapproving of him. He has near universal support from within his own party but he also gets good marks for his job performance from a third of Democrats, far more support than most folks in his position across the country get from across the aisle.
Obama's slightly unpopular in the state with 42% of voters approving of him and 49% disapproving. He's ahead of both Gingrich and Palin though because they're more unpopular than that. Gingrich's favorability is a 31/43 spread and Palin's is even worse at 37/55. Voters there are positive toward Huckabee, with 40% rating him favorably to 30% with a negative opinion, and a small plurality like Romney as well- 35% favorable, 34% unfavorable.
In the last two weeks we've found Palin up 1 point in Texas, up 1 point in Nebraska, and down 8 points in South Dakota. What those numbers indicate is that she would only really be safe in states that Republicans won by at least 20 points in 2008. And there weren't very many of those. It's becoming clearer and clearer that a Palin nomination would be Goldwater redux for the GOP. They need a new face and it will be interesting to see if John Thune gets in whether voters other places will respond as positively to him as those in South Dakota too. One thing's for sure: his home state support is at least one thing that differentiates him out of the gate from the other Republicans seriously considering the race.
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