Raleigh, N.C. – Unless the GOP nominates favorite son John Thune, South Dakota could become a marginally competitive presidential swing state in 2012. President Obama lost to John McCain by less than nine points in 2008, closer than the state usually comes to turning blue. But the president trails Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, the two strongest challengers right now, by respective 47-41 and 46-40 margins, and beats Newt Gingrich, 44-42, and Sarah Palin, 48-40. Thune, however, would put the state out of reach, winning it, 57-37.
PPP has polled potential candidates Romney in Massachusetts, Tim Pawlenty in Minnesota, Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania, Chris Christie in New Jersey, and Rick Perry in Texas against Obama, and none of them has beaten the president in his home state.
South Dakota’s independents help to make up for the 48-38 Republican registration advantage over Democrats. They give the president a 53-38 job approval margin toward his decent 42-49 overall, tying with Ohio in the middle of the pack of 41 states in which PPP has tested him in the last year. He wins independents’ vote by 13 (against Huckabee) to 26 points (versus Palin), but because unaffiliated voters like Thune equally as well as the president, they go for their senator by a 50-43 margin.
Thune is also moderately popular across the aisle, with a third of Democrats approving of his job performance toward his 58-31 overall, making him the fifth most popular of 77 senators PPP has measured. As such, Thune takes 23% of Democrats’ support against the president, while the others can pull only 9% (Gingrich) to 13% (Huckabee).
The disparity between the Palin and Thune matchups is most clearly explained by the fact that Obama pulls 83% of his party to Palin’s 67% of hers, while Thune flips that, taking 85% of the GOP to Obama’s 70% of Democrats.
“John Thune is one of the few potential Republican Presidential candidates for next year whose home state voters seem really supportive of,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Meanwhile Sarah Palin being down 8 in South Dakota may be the strongest evidence yet that her nomination would be a disaster for the GOP.”
PPP surveyed 1,045 South Dakota voters from January 28th to 30th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John
Thune’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 58%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John
Thune, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 37%
John Thune…………………………………………….. 57%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q12 Do you want John Thune to run for President
next year?
Yes…………………… 41%
No ……………………. 41%
Not sure ……………. 18%
Q13 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 50%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 44%
Conservative…………………………………………… 43%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 48%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 14%
Q17 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 95%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
