Raleigh, N.C. –
South Dakota might be next on the list of states where Republicans have a
bruising Senate primary. Our first look at the state for 2014 finds Mike Rounds
and Kristi Noem closely locked in a hypothetical contest, with Rounds leading
just 43/39. Noem’s favorability rating with GOP voters at 71/18 is slightly
better than Rounds’ 67/17.
Overall voters in the state have a positive opinion of both Rounds (51/34
favorability) and Noem (49/42). They’re closely divided in their views about
incumbent Tim Johnson with 44% of voters approving of the job he’s doing to 45%
who disapprove. Rounds leads Johnson 52/41 in a hypothetical match up with Noem
leading Johnson 49/45.
If Johnson were to retire, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin remains a popular
figure in the state and may actually increase Democrats’ chances at keeping the
race competitive. She has a 52/37 favorability rating with 30% of Republicans
holding a positive opinion of her, the kind of crossover appeal that’s
necessary for a Democrat to win in a state like South Dakota. Herseth Sandlin
would lead Noem 48/47 in a rematch of their 2010 contest, and would start out
trailing Rounds by a 49/44 margin.
Herseth Sandlin is the strong favorite of Democrats to be their candidate if
Johnson decides not to run again. 68% say she would be their choice compared to
16% who prefer US Attorney Brendan Johnson. The younger Johnson currently has
42% name recognition and would trail Noem by 12 points at 49/37 and Rounds by
21 points at 53/32 in hypothetical contests.
South Dakota provides a good opportunity for Republicans in 2014 but these
numbers suggest that it won’t be the end of the world for Democrats if Johnson
ends up deciding to retire, given Herseth Sandlin’s popularity, and the
potential for a highly divisive GOP primary that could give Democrats an
opportunity to replicate some of their other red state wins over the last few
election cycles.
PPP
surveyed 1,069 South Dakota voters, including 390 Democratic primary voters and
501 Republican primary voters on March 18th and 19th. The margin of
error for the overall sample is +/-3.0%, +/-5.0% for the Democratic portion and
+/-4.4% for the GOP portion. This poll
was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP
surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Tim
Johnson’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .44%
Disapprove…………. .45%
Not sure …………….. .11%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kristi Noem?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Rounds?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Tim Johnson and Republican Kristi
Noem, who would you vote for?
Tim Johnson …………………………………………… 45%
Kristi Noem…………………………………………….. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q6 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Tim Johnson and Republican Mike
Rounds, who would you vote for?
Tim Johnson …………………………………………… 41%
Mike Rounds…………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Stephanie Herseth Sandlin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and
Republican Kristi Noem, who would you vote
for?
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin ……………………….. 48%
Kristi Noem…………………………………………….. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and
Republican Mike Rounds, who would you vote
for?
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin ……………………….. 44%
Mike Rounds…………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brendan Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%
Q11 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Brendan Johnson and Republican
Kristi Noem, who would you vote for?
Brendan Johnson…………………………………….. 37%
Kristi Noem…………………………………………….. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q12 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Brendan Johnson and Republican
Mike Rounds, who would you vote for?
Brendan Johnson…………………………………….. 32%
Mike Rounds…………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q13 Generally speaking, do you vote in Democratic
or Republican primaries, or do you not usually
vote in primaries?
Democratic primaries……………………………….. 34%
Republican primaries ……………………………….. 48%
Don’t usually vote in primaries …………………… 18%
Q14 (Among 390 Democratic primary voters) If the
Democratic candidates for US Senate next
year were Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and
Brendan Johnson, who would you vote for?
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin ……………………….. 68%
Brendan Johnson…………………………………….. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q15 (Among 501 Republican primary voters) If the
Republican candidates for US Senate next
year were Mike Rounds and Kristi Noem, who
would you vote for?
Mike Rounds…………………………………………… 43%
Kristi Noem…………………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q16 In the last Presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 38%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 55%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 49%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 15%
Q19 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
