Raleigh, N.C. – Popular former at-large Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin was one of the casualties of the Republican wave election last November, falling to Kristi Noem by just over two points in one of the closest battles of the season. In PPP’s first test of a potential rematch for 2012, Herseth Sandlin leads by a single point.
Herseth Sandlin was first elected in a special election in 2004, re-upped that fall at the same time as longtime Democratic leader Tom Daschle was defeated by John Thune, and sent to two more terms in 2006 and 2008. She remains extremely well liked, with a 55-36 favorability margin, which pales Noem’s meager 38-35 approval rating for her short time in office so far. Even 28% of Republicans have positive views of Herseth Sandlin, and independents favor her by a 65-27 margin. Noem, meanwhile, has a 31-42 standing with unaffiliated voters, and she polarizes the two parties.
In that light, Herseth Sandlin overcomes the ten-point Republican registration advantage by taking a 52-31 lead with independents, and winning 17% of Republicans to Noem’s 11% of Democrats, the same proportion as approve of her job performance. That gives Herseth Sandlin a narrow 46-45 lead overall.
“The fact that Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is so popular but still lost last year is emblematic of the extent to which the election was nationalized and really kind of ceased being about the candidates themselves,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “She’s be a strong candidate for a comeback in a different political climate.”
New governor Dennis Daugaard starts out with a decent honeymoon, posting a 43-33 approval margin. Independents approve by three points, and slightly more Democrats approve than Republicans disapprove.
Three-term Senator Tim Johnson also has pretty good favor for a Democrat in a red state, with a 47-41 job approval rating. He has a huge 54-34 margin with independents, and a fifth of Republicans approve. Former senators Daschle (49-41) and George McGovern (42-29) are perhaps better liked at home than their national public images would suggest.
PPP surveyed 1,045 South Dakota voters from January 28th to 30th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Dennis Daugaard’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 43%
Disapprove………… 33%
Not sure ……………. 25%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Tim
Johnson’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 47%
Disapprove………… 41%
Not sure ……………. 12%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of
Congresswoman Kristi Noem’s job
performance?
Approve…………….. 38%
Disapprove………… 35%
Not sure ……………. 27%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Stephanie Herseth Sandlin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q5 If the candidates for Congress next year were
Republican Kristi Noem and Democrat
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, who would you
vote for?
Kristi Noem…………………………………………….. 45%
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin ……………………….. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Daschle?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George McGovern?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 50%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 44%
Conservative…………………………………………… 43%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 48%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 14%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 95%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
