Raleigh, N.C. – Results PPP released Tuesday showed John Thune as the only candidate who would clearly blow President Obama out of the water in Thune’s home state of South Dakota, an eternally red state which could otherwise turn marginally competitive, especially if Sarah Palin is the nominee. Thune’s Republican base in the state wants to give him that nomination by a 3:1 margin over the next closest competitor, but if he chooses to stay out, the primary contest would be a four-way statistical tie.
In most states, Thune is almost unknown, and therefore gets almost no support against the heavy hitters. But in his hometown crowd, he earns 37% in an eight-way primary, with the usual four frontrunners bunched way back in second place, barely in double digits. Palin and Mitt Romney tie at 12% over Mike Huckabee’s 11%, Newt Gingrich’s 10%, Ron Paul’s 5%, Tim Pawlenty’s 2%, and Mitch Daniels’ 1%.
If Thune decides against jumping into the fray, a 28% plurality of his voters would be uncommitted, but Palin and Huckabee would benefit most, getting a respective 21% and 18% of Thune’s voters, followed by Romney’s 14%. In the smaller field, Palin would barely eke out a victory, with 21% to Huckabee’s 19%, Romney’s 17%, Gingrich’s 12%, Paul’s 7%, Pawlenty’s 5%, and Daniels’ 1%, with 19% undecided now, versus 10% with Thune among the options.
The supporters of the other candidates seem to be afraid of Thune. Overall, 54% of South Dakota Republicans think Thune should make a White House bid, while 26% do not. Bolstering that majority is almost unanimous support from those who pledge to vote for Thune. But except for those faithful to Palin and Paul, pluralities of the other candidates’ believers are against a Thune candidacy.
Thune also has a stronger home-state primary showing than Minnesota’s Pawlenty, South Carolina’s Jim DeMint, or Rick Perry. When PPP recently polled their states, Perry was a distant sixth in Texas, while Pawlenty and DeMint each won their respective primaries, but with barely more than the second-place finishers. Thune does nearly as well as Romney’s 47% in Massachusetts.
PPP surveyed 484 usual South Dakota Republican primary voters from January 28th to 30th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.5%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 59%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John
Thune’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 81%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q6 Do you want John Thune to run for President
next year?
Yes…………………… 54%
No ……………………. 26%
Not sure ……………. 20%
Q7 If the Republican candidates for President next
year were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 1%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 10%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 11%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 12%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 2%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 12%
John Thune…………………………………………….. 37%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 10%
Q8 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were just Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich,
Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who would you
vote for?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 1%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 12%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 19%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 21%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 17%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 19%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Conservative…………………………………………… 69%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
