Public Policy Polling

Americans love Hawaii, dislike California

Raleigh, N.C. – Over the course of four months starting last October, PPP asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

Americans generally have a favorable view of most states.  Only five are in negative territory, led by California (27% favorable and 44% unfavorable), Illinois (19-29), New Jersey (25-32), Mississippi (22-28), and Utah (24-27).  Only seven other states have net-positive ratings in the single digits, and another breaks even (Louisiana).

State favorability poll

Over the course of four months starting last October, we asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

State	+/-	Margin
Hawaii	54-10	44
Colorado	44-9	35
Tennessee	48-14	34
South Dakota	42-8	34
Virginia	45-13	32
Montana	39-7	32
Alaska	46-17	29
Oregon	43-14	29
North Carolina	40-11	29
Pennsylvania	40-11	29
Washington	43-17	26
Kentucky	42-16	26
Iowa	42-17	25
Oklahoma	40-16	24
Vermont	39-15	24
Wisconsin	40-17	23
Wyoming	34-11	23
Florida	43-21	22
North Dakota	33-11	22
Missouri	32-11	21
New Hampshire	37-18	19
Indiana	31-12	19
Idaho	30-11	19
Nebraska	29-11	18
Arizona	39-22	17
Michigan	38-21	17
Maine	32-15	17
Ohio	34-18	16
Delaware	32-16	16
Maryland	31-15	16
South Carolina	34-19	15
New Mexico	30-15	15
Kansas	28-13	15
New York	40-29	11
Georgia	31-20	11
Minnesota	27-17	10
Rhode Island	26-16	10
Texas	40-31	9
Massachusetts	35-27	8
West Virginia	23-15	8
Arkansas	25-20	5
Connecticut	26-22	4
Nevada	28-26	2
Alabama	27-26	1
Louisiana	24-24	0
Utah	24-27	-3
Mississippi	22-28	-6
New Jersey	25-32	-7
Illinois	19-29	-10
California	27-44	-17

Occupy much more popular in Hawaii than Tea Party

Raleigh, N.C. – Linda Lingle would be wise not to embrace the Tea Party in her bid to represent Hawaii in the Senate.  The movement has become unpopular even in red-leaning states, but it is massively disliked in deep-blue Hawaii.  Lingle’s relative popularity comes from warm feelings from many of the nearly half of voters who are Democrats; they would be turned off by an appeal to the right wing.  Only 28% of Hawaiians support the goals of the Tea Party, and 51% oppose them.  Voters are more split on the relatively new Occupy Wall Street movement happening mostly on the opposite side of the mainland.  38% support its goals, and 35% oppose them.  Asked of which movement they have a higher opinion, 44% choose O.W.S., and only 29% choose the Tea Party.

Hawaii Miscellany

-Voters in Hawaii are happy being part of the United States.  Only 14% favor seceding to form their own country with 74% opposed and 12% unsure.  Voters who identify their ethnicity as Native Hawaiian actually come pretty close to break even on the issue with 38% for independence and 45% opposed but beyond that group there's not much support for breaking off.

-Hawaii voters strongly dislike the Tea Party (28/51), but they're not really sold on the Occupy Wall Street movement either (38/35). Still when it comes to which of the two they have a higher opinion of Occupy Wall Street wins out 44-29.  Linda Lingle definitely knows what she's doing when she embraces the moderate Republican label and shies away from the Tea Party- that's the only way a GOP politician can prosper in Hawaii.

Abercrombie least popular gov. in U.S., HI wants gay marriage

Raleigh, N.C. – Move over, John Kasich.  Step aside, Rick Scott.  Take a hike, Scott Walker.  There is a new least popular governor in town, and he is a Democrat from one of the bluest states in the country, Hawaii.  Neil Abercrombie’s net approval rating has plummeted 33 points since PPP last polled the state in March, when he had a decent 48-41 spread.  That is now 30-56, nine points worse than the previous most hated governor on which PPP has polled this year, Ohio’s Kasich.

Abercrombie has slid across the board, but the costliest decline for him has been with his own party, which makes up almost half the state’s voters.  He has fallen 39 points with Democrats, from 66-23 to only 43-39.  He has also dropped 45 points with the sizeable 27% who claim to be independents, from breaking even at 45-44 to in the basement at 21-65.  Needless to say, Republicans pretty handily disapprove, 13-80, slightly worse than March’s 16-75.

Hawaii Miscellany

-Neil Abercrombie has assumed the dubious distinction of 'most unpopular Governor in the country' in PPP's polling.  Only 30% of voters now approve of him to 56% disapproving. That represents a 33 point decline in his net approval since March, when PPP found him at 48/41.

Independents (21/65) and Republicans (13/80) are both pretty universal in their disapproval of Abercrombie.  But what really sinks his numbers is that even Democrats barely approve of the job he's doing- 43% give him good marks while 39% dissent.

I think Abercrombie's issues might be part of the reason for Linda Lingle's image resurgence over the last six months. Folks who might have burned out on her by the end of her time in office may now be looking at her in comparison to their feelings about Abercrombie and coming to the conclusion that she wasn't so bad.

-Daniel Inouye, on the other hand, is a model of popularity. 62% of voters are happy with the job he's doing to only 23% who disapprove. That ties Inouye for the second most popular Senator in the country, measured by net approval, behind only John Barrasso of Wyoming. Inouye has near universal approval from Democrats, is very solid with independents at 53/31, and comes pretty close to break even with Republicans at 36/46.

Obama down in Hawaii but still routing Romney, others

Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama’s standing has slipped even in his native state of Hawaii.  When PPP last polled the Aloha State in March, 64% approved and only 29% disapproved of his performance in office.  That has fallen 15 points on the margin to 56-36.  But that is still a better mark than in any other state PPP has ever polled him in.

In PPP’s first look at the presidential contest here, Obama tops Mitt Romney by 27 points, 59-32.  He leads Ron Paul and Herman Cain each by 33 (61-28 and 63-30, respectively), Rick Perry by 35 (63-28), Michele Bachmann by 36 (64-28), and Newt Gingrich by 37 (64-27).  Though the president does not match his 45-point win over John McCain against even the weakest of his hopeful Republican foes, his margins over them do still exceed his net approval rating, as in most states.

Obama's numbers down even in Hawaii

Barack Obama doesn't need to worry about winning Hawaii next year. He's more popular there than anywhere else in the country and he has huge leads over all of his potential Republican opponents.  But even his native state shows the difficulties Obama's facing right now- his approval numbers are way down from earlier in the year and his margins for reelection against the various GOP candidates don't come close to what he won by in 2008.

Obama's Hawaii approval rating is 56% with 36% of voters disapproving of him. That +20 spread is down 15 points from when we polled the state in March when he was at +35 (64/29.) Obama's numbers with Democrats now are basically identical to what they were earlier in the year. But where he previously had an unusual amount of crossover popularity with Republicans at 27% approval, that's now down to 15%. And he's gone from having very strong numbers with independents at 58/33 to relatively poor ones at 41/45.

Close race for Hawaii Senate seat

Raleigh, N.C. – With former Gov. Linda Lingle having jumped into the race, the Democrats’ bid to retain Daniel Akaka’s seat could be very competitive.  Akaka has held the seat for over 21 years, and another Democrat for 13 years before that.

The two announced Democrats, former Rep. Ed Case and current Rep. Mazie Hirono, are locked in a tight battle for the nomination at the moment.  Hirono leads with 45% to Case’s 40%.  Hirono’s lead is built entirely by an enormous 72-20 lead with the most liberal voters.  Case leads by one to 20 points with every other ideological group.

HI-Sen Tightens Up

Linda Lingle's image has rebounded over the last 7 months after she left office unpopular, and it looks like she might be able to make the Hawaii Senate race competitive.

When PPP polled the state in March, shortly after Lingle's second term as Governor ended, only 41% of  voters in the state had a favorable opinion of her to 51% with a negative one. Those poor numbers had her running 17 points behind Ed Case and 12 points behind Mazie Hirono in hypothetical head to head match ups.

The passage of time appears to have done Lingle some good though. Her favorability is up 5 points to 46% while her negatives have dropped 8 points to 43%. And with that improvement in her image has come an improvement in her standing against her potential opponents. She now trails Hirono by just 6 points at 48-42, and she actually leads Case by 2 points at 45-43.