Raleigh, N.C. – The Republican presidential race is very much nationalized right now, with very few regional or state-by-state differences. Rick Perry is really cratering everywhere, and Herman Cain has led comfortably in every PPP primary poll in the last two weeks, first in rural, right-leaning states like North Carolina, West Virginia, and Nebraska, then Iowa and nationally, and now joined by states as distant and different as Ohio and Hawaii. Mitt Romney’s one true stronghold remains New England. Newt Gingrich is also on the rise, though not to the extent that Cain is.
Perry has never been as low as he is in Ohio, where he has fallen to sixth at 5%, not far above perennial cellar-dwellers Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum (1% each) and Gary Johnson (essentially zero). Cain has 34% to Romney’s 19%, Gingrich’s 14%, Ron Paul’s 7%, and Michele Bachmann’s 6%. This is a drastic change from when PPP last took a look at the contest in August—then, taken the same weekend as his official announcement, Perry led with 21% to Romney’s 20%, Bachmann’s 14%, Cain’s 10%, and Gingrich’s and Paul’s 8%. Perry is down 16 points and Bachmann eight, with Cain up 24 and Gingrich six. Romney remains near the top, but cannot get over the hump yet because the most conservative voters, who are usually 35-45% of the electorate, strongly dislike him and are waffling from one right-wing candidate to another instead of settling on Romney.
In Hawaii, Cain has a 36-24 lead over Romney, with Perry and Gingrich at 8%, Bachmann at 6%, Paul at 4%, and the other three each at 1%. This is one of the more diverse Republican electorates in the country; 44% are something other than white.
That at least two-thirds of these voters say they may change their mind makes the race’s volatility understandable—and gives Romney, Perry, and really anyone else hope that they can quickly make up ground in the months ahead.
PPP surveyed 500 usual Ohio Republican primary voters and 293 Hawaii GOP primary voters from October 13th to 16th. The margin of error for the Ohio survey is +/-4.4%, and +/-5.7% for the Hawaii survey. These polls were not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Ohio Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 68%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kevin Coughlin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Josh Mandel?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%
Q9 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron
Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 6%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 34%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 14%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 0%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 19%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 12%
Q10 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 29%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 71%
Q11 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 11%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 17%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 14%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 13%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 27%
Q12 If the Republican race for President came
down to Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q13 If the Republican race for President came
down to Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 36%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q14 If the Republican race for President came
down to Herman Cain and Rick Perry, who
would you vote for?
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 58%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q15 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 33%
No …………………………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q16 If the candidates for US Senate were Kevin
Coughlin and Josh Mandel, who would you
vote for?
Kevin Coughlin………………………………………… 12%
Josh Mandel …………………………………………… 27%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 62%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 7%
Moderate………………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 37%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 44%
Man……………………………………………………….. 56%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
Hawaii Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 65%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Carroll?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Linda Lingle?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 88%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q9 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron
Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 6%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 36%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 8%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 4%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 8%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 24%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 11%
Q10 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 33%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 67%
Q11 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 6%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 15%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 15%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 12%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 32%
Q12 If the Republican race for President came
down to Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q13 If the Republican race for President came
down to Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 34%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q14 If the Republican race for President came
down to Herman Cain and Rick Perry, who
would you vote for?
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 54%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q15 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 23%
No …………………………………………………………. 65%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q16 If the candidates for US Senate were John
Carroll and Linda Lingle, who would you vote
for?
John Carroll ……………………………………………. 9%
Linda Lingle ……………………………………………. 85%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 21%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 47%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 25%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q19 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If native
Hawaiian, press 2. If Asian, press 3. If white,
press 4. If other, press 5.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 3%
Native Hawaiian………………………………………. 12%
Asian……………………………………………………… 20%
White …………………………………………………….. 56%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%