Raleigh, N.C. – With former Gov. Linda Lingle having jumped into the race, the Democrats’ bid to retain Daniel Akaka’s seat could be very competitive. Akaka has held the seat for over 21 years, and another Democrat for 13 years before that.
The two announced Democrats, former Rep. Ed Case and current Rep. Mazie Hirono, are locked in a tight battle for the nomination at the moment. Hirono leads with 45% to Case’s 40%. Hirono’s lead is built entirely by an enormous 72-20 lead with the most liberal voters. Case leads by one to 20 points with every other ideological group.
It is, at least at this point, a good thing for Democrats that Hirono is in the lead, because while Case performs better against the unknown Carroll, Hirono does a little better versus their strongest and most likely opponent, Lingle. Hirono bests Lingle by six points, 48-42, but Case actually trails by two, 43-45. Lingle performs roughly equally well with Republicans and independents against either Democrat, leading by 69 or 71 points with her own party and by 26 with independents. But her share of the Democratic vote is a hefty enough 17% against Hirono, but 24% versus Case.
Case is liked by voters better overall because he actually has a net positive favorability rating with both Republicans and independents, while Hirono has a net negative margin with each, but that does not help Case when it comes time to face off with Lingle, who is far more popular with independents and her own party.
“This race has become far more competitive since PPP last polled it in March,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Linda Lingle’s candidacy does give Republicans a chance for a pick up that would be devastating to Democratic hopes of holding onto the Senate.”
PPP surveyed 568 Hawaii voters, including 368 usual Democratic primary voters, from October 13th to 16th. The margin of error for the entire survey is +/-4.1%, and +/-5.1% for the Democratic portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ed Case?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Carroll?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 53%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mazie Hirono?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Linda Lingle?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q5 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Ed Case and Republican John
Carroll, who would you vote for?
Ed Case…………………………………………………. 60%
John Carroll ……………………………………………. 21%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q6 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Linda Lingle and Democrat Ed
Case, who would you vote for?
Linda Lingle ……………………………………………. 45%
Ed Case…………………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Mazie Hirono and Republican John
Carroll, who would you vote for?
Mazie Hirono…………………………………………… 56%
John Carroll ……………………………………………. 29%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Linda Lingle and Democrat Mazie
Hirono, who would you vote for?
Linda Lingle ……………………………………………. 42%
Mazie Hirono…………………………………………… 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate were Ed Case
and Mazie Hirono, who would you vote for?
(Asked of 368 Democratic primary voters)
Ed Case…………………………………………………. 40%
Mazie Hirono…………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 22%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 10%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 56%
Man……………………………………………………….. 44%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 49%
Republican……………………………………………… 24%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 27%
Q13 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If native
Hawaiian, press 2. If Asian, press 3. If white,
press 4. If other, press 5.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 8%
Native Hawaiian………………………………………. 18%
Asian……………………………………………………… 30%
White …………………………………………………….. 37%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 49%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
