Polls

Obama down in Hawaii but still routing Romney, others

| Dustin Ingalls

Header-poll-results
PresidentGraphRaleigh, N.C. –
President Obama’s standing has slipped even in his native state of Hawaii.  When PPP last polled the Aloha State in March, 64% approved and only 29% disapproved of his performance in office.  That has fallen 15 points on the margin to 56-36.  But that is still a better mark than in any other state PPP has ever polled him in.

In PPP’s first look at the presidential contest here, Obama tops Mitt Romney by 27 points, 59-32.  He leads Ron Paul and Herman Cain each by 33 (61-28 and 63-30, respectively), Rick Perry by 35 (63-28), Michele Bachmann by 36 (64-28), and Newt Gingrich by 37 (64-27).  Though the president does not match his 45-point win over John McCain against even the weakest of his hopeful Republican foes, his margins over them do still exceed his net approval rating, as in most states.

All of the movement in the president’s approval rating is with Republicans and independents.  He still gets a strong 84-8 mark from his own party, which makes up almost half of voters, but he has declined 30 points with the GOP and 29 with independents, from 58-33 to only 41-45.  Against the GOP field, Obama exceeds these marks across the board, pulling 88-92% of his own party’s vote and 17-21% of the GOP, and while he lags Romney by three with independents, he leads the others by 9 to 21.

The president evidently had to convince at least a few fellow Hawaiians that he is indeed one of them.  Seven months ago, 79% thought the president was born in the country, and 13% did not.  Five months after the release of his long-form birth certificate, that has risen to 83-10.  The case is pretty much shut with Democrats and independents, but 30% of Republicans remain convinced he was born outside the country.

“Obama certainly has nothing to worry about in Hawaii but the numbers are indicative of his popularity being way down everywhere,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

PPP surveyed 568 Hawaii voters from October 13th to 16th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.1%.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 56%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%

Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 64%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 28%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 63%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%

Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 64%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 27%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 61%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 28%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%

Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 63%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 28%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 59%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q14 Do you think Barack Obama was born in the
United States?
Yes………………………………………………………… 83%
No …………………………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 22%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 10%

Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 56%
Man……………………………………………………….. 44%

Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 49%
Republican……………………………………………… 24%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 27%

Q18 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If native
Hawaiian, press 2. If Asian, press 3. If white,
press 4. If other, press 5.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 8%
Native Hawaiian………………………………………. 18%
Asian……………………………………………………… 30%
White …………………………………………………….. 37%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%

Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 49%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%

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