Polls

Florida and North Carolina going down to the wire

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –

PPP’s final polls of the cycle in Florida and North Carolina suggest that they
may be the closest states in the country this year.

In Florida Obama leads 50/49, but to be more specific 473 respondents chose
Obama and 472 picked Romney. PPP has conducted 4 polls in Florida over the last
three weeks and found a 1 point race every time- Obama has been up slightly
twice and Romney has been up slightly twice.

It’s a similar story in North Carolina- the candidates are tied at 49 there
based on rounded numbers, but if you break it out to decimal points Romney’s up
49.4% to 49.2% with 457 respondents having chosen him to 455 for Obama. Both
states are likely in for a long night on Tuesday. Our last three polls in North
Carolina have all come out as ties. Barack Obama has built up a 54/45 lead
during the early voting period, but Mitt Romney’s ahead 57/41 with those
planning to vote on election day. Romney is making up for the registration
advantage Democrats in the state have with a 55/40 lead among independent
voters.

“It looks like Florida and North Carolina will be the two closest states in
the country on Tuesday night,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy
Polling. “The candidates have been incredibly even matched for weeks now in
both of those places.”

In the Florida Senate race Bill Nelson is in good position to be reelected,
leading Republican foe Connie Mack IV 51/46. Nelson’s lead has bounced around
in the 4-7 point range in our polling over the last few weeks.

Pat McCrory continues to be favored in the North Carolina Governor’s race,
although the contest has tightened in the closing stretch. He’s at 50% to 43%
for Walter Dalton and 4% for Libertarian Barbara Howe. Dalton’s moving closer
because he’s gone from 62% of the Democratic vote to 73% in the last week

PPP surveyed 955
likely voters in Florida and 926 in North Carolina on November 3rd
and 4th. The margin of error for both states is +/-3.2%.  This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Florida Toplines

Q1 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 1%

Q2 The candidates for Senate are Democrat Bill
Nelson and Republican Connie Mack IV. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Bill Nelson………………………………………………. 51%
Connie Mack IV ………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bill
Nelson’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .44%
Disapprove…………. .41%
Not sure …………….. .15%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Connie Mack IV?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Scott’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .37%
Disapprove…………. .48%
Not sure …………….. .15%

Q8 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
Governor today, would you vote for Republican
Rick Scott or his Democratic opponent?
Rick Scott…………… .44%
Democratic
opponent……………..48%
Not sure …………….. . 8%

Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%

Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 56%
Man……………………………………………………….. 44%

Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%

Q12 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 16%
White …………………………………………………….. 66%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%

North Carolina Toplines

Q1 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 1%

Q2 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
Walter Dalton, Republican Pat McCrory, and
Libertarian Barbara Howe. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Walter Dalton ………………………………………….. 43%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 50%
Barbara Howe…………………………………………. 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%

Q3 Have you already voted, either at an early
voting site or with an absentee ballot?
Yes………………………………………………………… 62%
No …………………………………………………………. 38%

Q4 The candidates for Lieutenant Governor are
Democrat Linda Coleman and Republican Dan
Forest. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Linda Coleman………………………………………… 44%
Dan Forest ……………………………………………… 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%

Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Walter Dalton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat McCrory?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Hagan’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .35%
Disapprove…………. .37%
Not sure …………….. .28%

Q10 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
Senate today, would you vote for Democrat
Kay Hagan or her Republican opponent?
Kay Hagan…………. .46%
Republican
opponent……………..43%
Not sure …………….. .11%

Q11 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bev
Perdue’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .31%
Disapprove…………. .54%
Not sure …………….. .14%

Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%

Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 56%
Man……………………………………………………….. 44%

Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 47%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%

Q15 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African-American …………………………………….. 21%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

Q17 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 11%
336………………………………………………………… 23%
704………………………………………………………… 17%
828………………………………………………………… 16%
910………………………………………………………… 13%
919………………………………………………………… 21%

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