PPP’s newest North Carolina poll finds that Roy Cooper continues to lead Michael Whatley, 48-44, but that Whatley does have a path to victory.

Cooper’s lead is driven in part by a significant name recognition advantage. 92% of voters are familiar with him, compared to 69% who are familiar with Whatley.

Because of that dynamic Democrats are almost completely lined up behind Cooper, while a lot of Republican voters remain undecided.

That gives Whatley much more room for growth. Voters who remain on the fence supported Donald Trump by a 72 point margin in 2024. If they all voted for the same party for Senate in 2026 that they did for President in 2024, Whatley would win 51-49.

Early negative ads in the race have been effective in driving up Cooper’s negatives and keeping the race competitive for the GOP. Where his favorability was 47/40 in March, he’s now barely on positive ground at 47/45.

North Carolina’s other statewide races remain tight as well. Anita Earls leads Sarah Stevens 44-42 in the Supreme Court race, and all the Court of Appeals races are basically tied.

One clear piece of good news for Democrats in the poll is a 46-44 generic legislative ballot lead. That creates the potential for significant seat gains this fall as long as the party’s candidates have the resources they need to succeed in Republican held districts.

Even when Democrats win in North Carolina they rarely win big. It would be a mistake to count Republicans out when it comes to this year’s Senate and judicial races.

PPP interviewed 759 North Carolina voters on July 10th and 11th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.6%. Full results here