Polls

Romney up in South Carolina

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
Mitt Romney’s taken a modest lead in South Carolina. He’s at 30% there to 23% for Newt Gingrich and 19% for Rick Santorum. None of the other candidates hit double digits- Ron Paul at 9%, Rick Perry at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 1% round out the field.

Romney’s benefiting from very strong personal favorability numbers in the state- 60% of voters see him favorably to only 29% with a negative opinion, numbers that far outstrip anything he ever posted in our Iowa polling. And he also has the most committed support out of the leading contenders. 67% of his supporters say they’ll definitely vote for him, compared to only 59% of Gingrich and 44% of Santorum’s voters who say that. Among ‘solidly committed’ voters Romney’s lead expands to double digits at 37% to 26% for Gingrich and 15% for Santorum.

Gingrich may be in second place right now but the candidate who would have the best chance of beating Romney in South Carolina is Santorum. We tested hypothetical head to head match ups between Romney and the other leading Republican candidates in the instance that were some drop outs before the primary. Romney defeats Gingrich handily in such a match, 49-35.  But Santorum runs only slightly behind Romney at 45-40.

There are two things that taken together might make it possible for Santorum to upset Romney in South Carolina. The first is both Gingrich and Perry dropping out.  Gingrich’s voters prefer Santorum over Romney 52-37 and Perry’s do by a 54-41 margin.  The other thing that would give Santorum the potential for an upset is a Jim DeMint endorsement. 31% of voters say his nod would make them more likely to vote for a candidate.  That compares to 15% for Lindsey Graham, 14% for Nikki Haley, 13% for Mark Sanford, and 11% for John McCain.

“Mitt Romney’s the favorite in South Carolina,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But with a couple of breaks Rick Santorum could win the state.”

PPP surveyed 1,112 likely Republican primary voters from January 5th to 7th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.9%.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary
or the Democratic primary, or are you not sure?
Republican primary………………………………….100%
Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%

Q2 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul,
Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and
Buddy Roemer, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 23%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 4%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 30%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 19%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 9%

Q3 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 59%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 41%

Q4 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 14%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 5%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 16%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 21%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 26%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Huntsman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q11 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q12 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 67%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q13 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 57%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q14 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum,
who would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q15 In 2008, did you vote in the Democratic or
Republican primary, or did you not vote in a
primary?
Democratic primary………………………………….. 7%
Republican primary………………………………….. 82%
Didn’t vote in a primary …………………………….. 11%

Q16 (Among Republican primary voters:) Did you
vote for John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Fred
Thompson, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Rudy
Giuliani, or someone else? If John McCain,
press 1. If Mike Huckabee, press 2. If Fred
Thompson, press 3. If Mitt Romney, press 4. If
Ron Paul, press 5. If Rudy Giuliani, press 6. If
someone else or you don’t remember, press 7.
John McCain…………………………………………… 47%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 23%
Fred Thompson ………………………………………. 11%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 8%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 3%
Rudy Giuliani ………………………………………….. 4%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 4%

Q17 If the Republican candidates for President
were Stephen Colbert, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney,
Rick Santorum, and Buddy Roemer who would
you vote for?
Stephen Colbert………………………………………. 5%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 23%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 4%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 7%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 27%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 18%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 8%

Q18 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Stephen Colbert?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%

Q19 Do you think that corporations are people or
that only people are people?
Corporations are people …………………………… 33%
Only people are people…………………………….. 67%

Q20 Are you comfortable with the idea of a Mormon
being President, or not?
Comfortable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not comfortable ………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%

Q21 Are you more or less likely to vote for a
candidate endorsed by John McCain, or does it
not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 11%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 30%
Doesn’t make a difference ………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q22 Are you more or less likely to vote for a
candidate endorsed by Lindsey Graham, or
does it not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 15%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 27%
Doesn’t make a difference ………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q23 Are you more or less likely to vote for a
candidate endorsed by Jim DeMint, or does it
not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 31%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 18%
Doesn’t make a difference ………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q24 Are you more or less likely to vote for a
candidate endorsed by Nikki Haley, or does it
not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 14%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 25%
Doesn’t make a difference ………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q25 Are you more or less likely to vote for a
candidate endorsed by Mark Sanford, or does
it not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 13%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 24%
Doesn’t make a difference ………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q26 Who do you think has run the strongest
campaign in South Carolina?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 13%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 6%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 1%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 18%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 4%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 49%

Q27 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%

Q28 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 30%

Q29 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 38%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 41%

Q30 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 3%
Republican……………………………………………… 82%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 14%

Q31 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 31%
No …………………………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q32 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are ………………………………………………………… 57%
Are not …………………………………………………… 43%

Q33 Region
Low Country……………………………………………. 33%
Midlands ………………………………………………… 34%
Upstate ………………………………………………….. 33%

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