Raleigh, N.C. – At this point, Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling would be Republicans’ best bet to keep the Virginia governor’s mansion, but first he has to get through the primary, and Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli is the favorite there. Regardless, no Republican has a shot against the enormously popular former governor and current Sen. Mark Warner if he chooses to make a bid for his old office.
Bolling leads 2009 primary runner-up Terry McAuliffe 36-34 and former congressman Tom Perriello 35-34, while Cuccinelli trails McAuliffe 41-36 and Perriello 39-36. Warner leads Bolling 53-32 and Cuccinelli 53-33.
Warner has a 2:1 (52-26) approval margin as a senator—not quite as lofty as the marks he posted in his days in Richmond, but he is far better liked and better known than any of the other potential candidates. In fact, all of the others are seen more unfavorably than favorably. Bolling’s 15-16 spread is the next best, followed by Perriello’s 14-16, Cuccinelli’s 30-37, and McAuliffe’s 13-20. 67% to 70% have no opinion of Bolling, Perriello, and McAuliffe, compared to 34% for Cuccinelli and 22% for Warner.
Last week, a new candidate all but declared he would enter the GOP primary next year: infamous White House gatecrasher Tareq Salahi. But voters do not take him seriously. He has only a 2% favorable rating with the general electorate, and 34% unfavorable. That is no better with Republican primary voters (4-42). Thus, he has only 4% support to Cuccinelli’s 51% and Bolling’s 23%. If Salahi were to miraculously capture the Republican nomination, he would be crushed by margins of 24 points versus Perriello, 25 against McAuliffe, and a whopping 39 against Warner.
“It’s way early, but there’s no question Mark Warner would be a daunting challenge for any Republican,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Democrats’ chances are fifty-fifty otherwise, but they have to be hoping to face Ken Cuccinelli.”
PPP surveyed 680 Virginia voters, including 400 usual Republican primary voters, from April 26th to 29th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/-3.8%, and +/-4.9% for the primary portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Warner’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .52%
Disapprove…………. .26%
Not sure …………….. .22%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Bolling?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ken Cuccinelli?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Terry McAuliffe?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Perriello?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tareq Salahi?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 2%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%
Q7 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Bill Bolling and Democrat Terry
McAuliffe, who would you vote for?
Bill Bolling ………………………………………………. 36%
Terry McAuliffe………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q8 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Bill Bolling and Democrat Tom
Perriello, who would you vote for?
Bill Bolling ………………………………………………. 35%
Tom Perriello…………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q9 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Bill Bolling and Democrat Mark
Warner, who would you vote for?
Bill Bolling ………………………………………………. 32%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q10 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Ken Cuccinelli and Democrat Terry
McAuliffe, who would you vote for?
Ken Cuccinelli …………………………………………. 36%
Terry McAuliffe………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q11 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Ken Cuccinelli and Democrat Tom
Perriello, who would you vote for?
Ken Cuccinelli …………………………………………. 36%
Tom Perriello…………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q12 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Ken Cuccinelli and Democrat Mark
Warner, who would you vote for?
Ken Cuccinelli …………………………………………. 33%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q13 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Tareq Salahi and Democrat Terry
McAuliffe, who would you vote for?
Tareq Salahi……………………………………………. 18%
Terry McAuliffe………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q14 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Tareq Salahi and Democrat Tom
Perriello, who would you vote for?
Tareq Salahi……………………………………………. 20%
Tom Perriello…………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q15 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Tareq Salahi and Democrat Mark
Warner, who would you vote for?
Tareq Salahi……………………………………………. 19%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q16 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 43%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 29%
Q20 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 19%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 29%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 If the Republican candidates for Governor next
year were Bill Bolling, Ken Cuccinelli, and
Tareq Salahi, who would you vote for?
Bill Bolling ………………………………………………. 23%
Ken Cuccinelli …………………………………………. 51%
Tareq Salahi……………………………………………. 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Bolling?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ken Cuccinelli?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 61%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tareq Salahi?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 55%
Q5 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 20%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 37%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 37%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q7 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 34%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 30%
