Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest New Hampshire poll finds everything pretty much as it was a week and a half ago with one exception: Newt Gingrich’s support continues to plummet in the state, allowing Ron Paul to move into a clear second place.
Mitt Romney continues to have a solid lead in the state with 36% to 21% for Paul, 13% for Gingrich, 12% for Jon Huntsman, 7% for Michele Bachmann, and 3% each for Buddy Roemer, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum. Every candidate is within 2 points of their standing when PPP polled New Hampshire 2 weekends ago with the exception of Gingrich, who has dropped from 17% to 13%.
There’s little to suggest anyone could come from behind to defeat Romney in New Hampshire. He has the best favorability numbers in the state at 63/32 and 78% of his supporters are strongly committed to him, higher either than Paul’s number on that front.
Paul’s second place standing in New Hampshire is being driven by the same groups he’s doing well with in Iowa: young people and non-Republicans. With voters under 45 Paul actually leads Romney by a 27-24 margin. But Romney is destroying Paul 46-11 with seniors, accounting for most of his overall advantage. With non-Republicans, almost 40% of the vote in New Hampshire, the race is very close with Romney at 27%, Paul at 24%, and Huntsman at 21%. With actual Republican voters Romney has the 42-19 advantage.
After hitting double digits for the first time in our last New Hampshire poll Huntsman seems to have hit a wall, going from 13% to 12%. Talking about a ‘Santorum surge’ seems to be all the rage this week but he’s polling at only 3% in New Hampshire. His favorability is slightly under water at 39/40.
“New Hampshire continues to look like Mitt Romney’s firewall,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “We don’t see a lot in the numbers to suggest someone could make a run at him there.”
PPP surveyed 830 likely Republican primary voters on December 27th and 28th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary
or the Democratic primary, or are you not sure?
Republican primary………………………………….100%
Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q2 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Buddy
Roemer, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum,
who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 7%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 13%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 12%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 21%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 3%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 3%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 36%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 3%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 2%
Q3 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 71%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 29%
Q4 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 7%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 15%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 13%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 4%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 2%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 18%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 8%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 25%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Huntsman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q12 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are ………………………………………………………… 23%
Are not …………………………………………………… 77%
Q13 Do you regularly watch Fox News, or not?
Do …………………………………………………………. 51%
Do not ……………………………………………………. 49%
Q14 If the candidates at the time of the New
Hampshire primary were just Newt Gingrich,
Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, and Mitt Romney,
who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 16%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 16%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 23%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q15 In 2008, did you vote in the Democratic or
Republican primary, or did you not vote in a
primary?
Democratic primary………………………………….. 17%
Republican primary………………………………….. 70%
Didn’t vote in a primary …………………………….. 13%
Q16 (Among Republican primary voters:) Did you
vote for John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike
Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, Ron Paul, or
someone else in the 2008 primary, or do you
not remember?
John McCain…………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 21%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 9%
Rudy Giuliani ………………………………………….. 7%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Someone else…………………………………………. 4%
Don’t remember ………………………………………. 6%
Q17 Which of the following things is most important
to you when deciding how to vote: jobs and the
economy, government spending and reducing
the debt, taxes, social issues like gay marriage
and abortion, illegal immigration, or foreign
policy and national security?
Jobs/economy…………………………………………. 37%
Government spending, reducing the debt ……. 33%
Taxes …………………………………………………….. 5%
Social issues…………………………………………… 8%
Illegal immigration……………………………………. 3%
Foreign policy/national security………………….. 4%
Someone else…………………………………………. 2%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q18 What is more important to you when deciding
who to vote for: a candidate’s ability to beat
Barack Obama in the general election, or their
positions on the issues?
A candidate’s ability to beat Obama……………. 36%
Their issue positions ………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q19 Do you think that Newt Gingrich has strong
principles, or not?
He does …………………………………………………. 31%
He does not ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q20 Do you think that Jon Huntsman has strong
principles, or not?
He does …………………………………………………. 51%
He does not ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q21 Do you think that Ron Paul has strong
principles, or not?
He does …………………………………………………. 72%
He does not ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q22 Do you think that Mitt Romney has strong
principles, or not?
He does …………………………………………………. 52%
He does not ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q23 Which of the Republican candidates do you
think has the best chance of defeating Barack
Obama?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 6%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 11%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 8%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 1%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 1%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 18%
Q24 How much attention have you paid to the
televised debates between the candidates so
far: a lot of attention, some attention, or not
much attention at all?
A lot of attention………………………………………. 34%
Some attention………………………………………… 38%
Not much attention at all …………………………… 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q25 Have you seen any of the candidates speak in
person, and if so, how many?
Have not seen any of the candidates in
person…………………………………………………….64%
Have seen only one candidate…………………… 10%
Have seen more than one candidate ………….. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q26 When deciding who to vote for, how important
is it to you that a candidate has spent a lot of
time in New Hampshire: very important,
somewhat important, or not important at all?
Very important…………………………………………. 25%
Somewhat important ………………………………… 33%
Not important at all…………………………………… 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q27 Who do you think has run the strongest
campaign in New Hampshire?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 3%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 4%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 10%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 15%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 1%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 2%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 40%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 0%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 26%
Q28 Who do you think is going to win the New
Hampshire primary?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 3%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 6%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 5%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 13%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 1%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 2%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 23%
Q29 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q30 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
Q31 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 5%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 39%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 25%
Q32 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 4%
Republican……………………………………………… 61%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 34%
Q33 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 68%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 21%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 11%
Q34 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 24%
No …………………………………………………………. 66%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
