Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama’s approval rating in North Carolina is the best it has been in three months, but he remains knotted with his perennially toughest foe for next year, Mitt Romney, while leading the others tested against him by larger margins.
Romney edges Obama 46-45, a reversal of last month. Herman Cain was not tested in the previous poll, but he trails now by three points (47-44). Obama remains up on Newt Gingrich by seven points (50-43), but has improved versus the others, leading Ron Paul (48-40), Rick Perry, and Michele Bachmann (each 50-42) by eight points. That is up five versus Paul, four versus Perry, and one versus Bachmann.
45% approve and 50% disapprove of the president’s handling of his duties now, up four points from 44-53 in early October and 43-53 in September, and only down a hair from 46-50 in August.
The president continues to be bolstered by the state’s demographics, with a large minority population and a continuing influx of transplants from the Northeast and Midwest. 21% do not consider themselves Southerners, and those folks prefer Obama to the Republicans by margins of seven (versus Romney) to 18 points (against Gingrich). Even the rest who do label themselves Southern prefer Romney by only four and split evenly on Obama vs. Cain. Obama leads the others by four to eight points with region natives. With the 21% who are African-American, even Cain pulls only 10% of their support, roughly the same as the others.
“Barack Obama’s status in North Carolina has been the same for months now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He’s not going to win any popularity contests but voters aren’t finding any of the GOP alternatives compelling either and that puts him in a position where he has a very decent chance of claiming the state again in 2012.”
PPP surveyed 615 North Carolina voters from October 27th to 31st. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q14 Do you consider yourself to be a Southerner or
not?
Consider yourself a Southerner …………………. 79%
Do not ……………………………………………………. 21%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%
Q18 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 21%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q20
252………………………………………………………… 11%
336………………………………………………………… 18%
704………………………………………………………… 16%
828………………………………………………………… 14%
910………………………………………………………… 17%
919………………………………………………………… 23%
