Raleigh, N.C. – Mitt Romney continues to be headed for a comfortable win in New Hampshire. PPP’s final poll there finds him with 35% to 18% for Ron Paul, 16% for Jon Huntsman, 12% for Newt Gingrich, 11% for Rick Santorum, 3% for Buddy Roemer, and 1% for Rick Perry.
Romney’s support has been remarkably consistent over the course of PPP’s three Granite State tracking polls, never straying from 35-36%. He’s the most popular of the candidates in the state, with a 60/34 favorability rating. And he also has the most committed supporters…85% of them say they’re definitely going to vote for him and when you look at the race just among those whose minds are completely made up his lead over Paul expands to 40-19.
The excitement in New Hampshire on Tuesday night will probably be the battle for second place. There Huntsman has the momentum. His support is up from 12% to 16%, while Paul’s has declined from 21% to 18% over the last week and a half. Huntsman’s favorability (55/30) is far better than Paul’s (43/51) and 13% of voters list Huntsman as their 2nd choice compared to only 5% for Paul.
Beyond the battle for second it looks like the only other intrigue on Tuesday night will be who finishes fourth, which is presently close between Gingrich and Santorum. Gingrich has stopped the bleeding in New Hampshire over the last week and a half, dropping only from 13% to 12%. Santorum though is actually the biggest gainer relative to a week ago, up 8 points from his previous 3% standing.
“It doesn’t look like there’s much potential for a late surprise in New Hampshire this time,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Mitt Romney’s support has been steady and no one else is even close to him. The only suspense on Tuesday night will be for who finishes in 2nd place and who finishes 4th.”
PPP surveyed 1,771 likely Republican primary voters on January 7th and 8th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.3%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary
or the Democratic primary, or are you not sure?
Republican primary………………………………….100%
Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q2 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul,
Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and
Buddy Roemer, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 12%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 16%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 18%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 1%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 35%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 11%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 3%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 4%
Q3 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 76%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 24%
Q4 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 15%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 13%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 16%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 17%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 3%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 24%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Huntsman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 65%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Gatsas?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ovide Lamontagne?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kevin Smith?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q14 If the candidates for Governor were Ted
Gatsas, Ovide Lamontagne, and Kevin Smith,
who would you vote for?
Ted Gatsas …………………………………………….. 13%
Ovide Lamontagne…………………………………… 36%
Kevin Smith…………………………………………….. 11%
Undecided………………………………………………. 40%
Q15 If the candidates for Governor were just Ovide
Lamontagne and Kevin Smith, who would you
vote for?
Ovide Lamontagne…………………………………… 40%
Kevin Smith…………………………………………….. 12%
Undecided………………………………………………. 48%
Q16 In 2008, did you vote in the Democratic or
Republican primary, or did you not vote in a
primary?
Democratic primary………………………………….. 19%
Republican primary………………………………….. 71%
Didn’t vote in a primary …………………………….. 10%
Q17 (Among Republican primary voters:) Did you
vote for John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike
Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, Ron Paul, or
someone else in the 2008 primary, or do you
not remember?
John McCain…………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 21%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 11%
Rudy Giuliani ………………………………………….. 6%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Someone else…………………………………………. 4%
Don’t remember ………………………………………. 5%
Q18 What is more important to you when deciding
who to vote for: a candidate’s ability to beat
Barack Obama in the general election, or their
positions on the issues?
A candidate’s ability to beat Obama……………. 37%
Their issue positions ………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q19 Who do you think has run the strongest
campaign in New Hampshire?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 5%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 16%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 14%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 1%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 2%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 4%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 15%
Q20 Are you more or less likely to vote for a
candidate endorsed by John McCain, or does it
not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 13%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 28%
Doesn’t make a difference ………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q21 Do you think that Newt Gingrich has the same
values as you, or not?
He has the same values …………………………… 23%
He does not ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q22 Do you think that Jon Huntsman has the same
values as you, or not?
He has the same values …………………………… 34%
He does not ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q23 Do you think that Ron Paul has the same
values as you, or not?
He has the same values …………………………… 30%
He does not ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q24 Do you think that Mitt Romney has the same
values as you, or not?
He has the same values …………………………… 41%
He does not ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q25 Do you think that Rick Santorum has the same
values as you, or not?
He has the same values …………………………… 35%
He does not ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q26 Do you think Mitt Romney is too liberal, too
conservative, both, about right, or are you not
sure?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 18%
Too conservative……………………………………… 8%
Both ………………………………………………………. 18%
About right ……………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q27 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 45%
Man……………………………………………………….. 55%
Q28 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
Q29 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 4%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 37%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 26%
Q30 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 5%
Republican……………………………………………… 59%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 37%
Q31 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 68%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 24%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q32 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 20%
No …………………………………………………………. 71%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q33 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are ………………………………………………………… 21%
Are not …………………………………………………… 79%
