Raleigh, N.C. – Newt Gingrich’s campaign is rapidly imploding, and Ron Paul has now taken the lead in Iowa. He’s at 23% to 20% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Gingrich, 10% each for Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Perry, 4% for Jon Huntsman, and 2% for Gary Johnson.
Gingrich has now seen a big drop in his Iowa standing two weeks in a row. His share of the vote has gone from 27% to 22% to 14%. And there’s been a large drop in his personal favorability numbers as well from +31 (62/31) to +12 (52/40) to now -1 (46/47). Negative ads over the last few weeks have really chipped away at Gingrich’s image as being a strong conservative- now only 36% of voters believe that he has ‘strong principles,’ while 43% think he does not.
Paul’s base of support continues to rely on some unusual groups for a Republican contest. Among voters under 45 he’s at 33% to 16% for Romney and 11% for Gingrich. Paul is also cleaning up 35-14 with the 24% of voters who identify as either Democrats or independents. Romney is actually ahead 22-19 with GOP voters.
Romney’s vote share is up 4 points from a week ago to 20% from it previous 16% standing. His favorability numbers have improved a little bit as well from 48/44 to 49/40. One thing Romney really has going for him is more room for growth than Paul. Among voters who say they’re not firmly committed to their current candidate choice, Romney is the second choice for 19% compared to 17% for Perry, 15% for Bachmann, and only 13% for Paul.
“Newt Gingrich’s Iowa support was extremely soft and has collapsed in only two weeks,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Ron Paul has taken the lead, but it will be interesting to see if he can turn out his unique base of voters for the caucus. If any of the second tier candidates see their supporters abandon them in the final two weeks, Mitt Romney is the most likely beneficiary and it could propel him to the win.”
PPP surveyed 597 likely Republican caucus voters from December 16th to 18th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican caucus
or the Democratic caucus, or are you not sure?
Republican caucus…………………………………..100%
Democratic caucus ………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q2 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, Rick
Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who
would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 10%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 14%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 4%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 2%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 23%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 20%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 10%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 7%
Q3 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 63%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 37%
Q4 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 15%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 13%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 7%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 14%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 12%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 9%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 18%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Huntsman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q12 Do you think that Barack Obama was born in
the United States, or not?
He was…………………………………………………… 47%
He was not……………………………………………… 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q13 Did you watch the debate in Sioux City on
Thursday night?
Yes………………………………………………………… 54%
No …………………………………………………………. 46%
Q14 In 2008 did you vote in the Democratic or
Republican caucus, or did you not vote in a
caucus?
Democratic caucus ………………………………….. 13%
Republican caucus…………………………………… 55%
Didn’t vote in a caucus……………………………… 32%
Q15 (Among Republican caucus goers:) Did you
vote for Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Fred
Thompson, John McCain, Ron Paul, Rudy
Giuliani, or someone else in the 2008 caucus,
or do you not remember?
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 26%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 19%
Fred Thompson ………………………………………. 14%
John McCain…………………………………………… 19%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Rudy Giuliani ………………………………………….. 3%
Someone else…………………………………………. 2%
Don’t remember ………………………………………. 7%
Q16 Which of the following things is most important
to you when deciding how to vote: jobs and the
economy, government spending and reducing
the debt, taxes, social issues like gay marriage
and abortion, illegal immigration, or foreign
policy and national security?
Jobs/economy…………………………………………. 30%
Government spending, reducing the debt ……. 37%
Taxes …………………………………………………….. 3%
Social issues…………………………………………… 11%
Illegal immigration……………………………………. 3%
Foreign policy/national security………………….. 5%
Someone else…………………………………………. 3%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q17 What is more important to you when deciding
who to vote for: a candidate’s ability to beat
Barack Obama in the general election, or their
positions on the issues?
A candidate’s ability to beat Obama……………. 32%
Their issue positions ………………………………… 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q18 Do you think that Newt Gingrich has strong
principles, or not?
He does …………………………………………………. 36%
He does not ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q19 Do you think that Ron Paul has strong
principles, or not?
He does …………………………………………………. 73%
He does not ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q20 Do you think that Mitt Romney has strong
principles, or not?
He does …………………………………………………. 50%
He does not ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q21 Which of the Republican candidates do you
think has the best chance of defeating Barack
Obama?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 7%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 17%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 2%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 16%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 25%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 3%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 20%
Q22 How much attention have you paid to the
televised debates between the candidates so
far: a lot of attention, some attention, or not
much attention at all?
A lot of attention………………………………………. 43%
Some attention………………………………………… 35%
Not much attention at all …………………………… 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q23 Have you seen any of the candidates speak in
person, and if so, how many?
Have not seen any of the candidates in
person…………………………………………………….59%
Have seen only one candidate…………………… 9%
Have seen more than one candidate ………….. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q24 When deciding who to vote for, how important
is it to you that a candidate has spent a lot of
time in Iowa: very important, somewhat
important, or not important at all?
Very important…………………………………………. 22%
Somewhat important ………………………………… 40%
Not important at all…………………………………… 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q25 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republican establishment?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q26 Who do you think has run the strongest
campaign in Iowa?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 19%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 8%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 2%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 22%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 7%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 5%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 8%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 28%
Q27 Who do you think is going to win the Iowa
caucuses?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 6%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 20%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 20%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 3%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 19%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 27%
Q28 Would you be more or less likely to vote for a
candidate endorsed by Herman Cain, or would
it not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 11%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 26%
Woudn’t make a difference ……………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q29 Do you support or oppose ethanol subsidies?
Support ………………………………………………….. 33%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q30 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 43%
Man……………………………………………………….. 57%
Q31 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 19%
Q32 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 36%
Q33 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 5%
Republican……………………………………………… 75%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%
Q34 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 26%
No …………………………………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
