Raleigh, N.C. – The last week and a half has brought little change in the standings for the Iowa Republican caucus: Ron Paul continues to lead Mitt Romney by a modest margin, 24-20. Newt Gingrich is in 3rd at 13% followed by Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.
Paul’s strength in Iowa continues to depend on a coalition of voters that’s pretty unusual for a Republican in the state. Romney leads 22-20 with those who are actually Republicans, while Paul has a 39-12 advantage with the 24% who are either independents or Democrats. GOP caucus voters tend to skew old, and Romney has a 34-12 advantage with seniors. But Paul’s candidacy looks like it’s going to attract an unusual number of younger voters to the caucus this year, and with those under 45 he has a 35-11 advantage on Romney.
Newt Gingrich just keeps on sliding. He’s gone from 27% to 22% to 14% to 13% over the course of our four Iowa tracking polls. His favorability numbers are pretty abysmal now at 37/54.
Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum continue to all be clustered right around 10%. Santorum actually has the best favorability numbers of any of the candidates at +27 (56/29). He’s also the most frequent second choice of voters at 14%. Whether he can translate any of this into a top 3 finish remains to be seen, but he’s someone who would seem to have the potential to grow his support in the final week.
“If Ron Paul really manages to change the electorate by turning out large numbers of young people and independents he should win Iowa,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If it’s a more traditional turnout with an older electorate, Romney will probably win. And given his personal popularity it’s worth keeping an eye on Santorum in the final week.”
PPP surveyed 565 likely Republican caucus voters on December 26th and 27th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican caucus
or the Democratic caucus, or are you not sure?
Republican caucus…………………………………..100%
Democratic caucus ………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q2 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Buddy
Roemer, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum,
who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 11%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 13%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 4%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 24%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 10%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 2%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 20%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 10%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 5%
Q3 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 72%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 28%
Q4 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 12%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 12%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 7%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 11%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 1%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 10%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 14%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 25%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Huntsman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q12 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are ………………………………………………………… 47%
Are not …………………………………………………… 53%
Q13 Do you regularly watch Fox News, or not?
Do …………………………………………………………. 52%
Do not ……………………………………………………. 48%
Q14 In 2008 did you vote in the Democratic or
Republican caucus, or did you not vote in a
caucus?
Democratic caucus ………………………………….. 16%
Republican caucus…………………………………… 55%
Didn’t vote in a caucus……………………………… 29%
Q15 (Among Republican caucus goers:) Did you
vote for Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Fred
Thompson, John McCain, Ron Paul, Rudy
Giuliani, or someone else in the 2008 caucus,
or do you not remember?
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 36%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 17%
Fred Thompson ………………………………………. 13%
John McCain…………………………………………… 13%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Rudy Giuliani ………………………………………….. 3%
Someone else…………………………………………. 3%
Don’t remember ………………………………………. 7%
Q16 Which of the following things is most important
to you when deciding how to vote: jobs and the
economy, government spending and reducing
the debt, taxes, social issues like gay marriage
and abortion, illegal immigration, or foreign
policy and national security?
Jobs/economy…………………………………………. 25%
Government spending, reducing the debt ……. 39%
Taxes …………………………………………………….. 4%
Social issues…………………………………………… 12%
Illegal immigration……………………………………. 3%
Foreign policy/national security………………….. 3%
Someone else…………………………………………. 4%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q17 What is more important to you when deciding
who to vote for: a candidate’s ability to beat
Barack Obama in the general election, or their
positions on the issues?
A candidate’s ability to beat Obama……………. 30%
Their issue positions ………………………………… 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q18 Do you think that Newt Gingrich has strong
principles, or not?
He does …………………………………………………. 32%
He does not ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q19 Do you think that Ron Paul has strong
principles, or not?
He does …………………………………………………. 68%
He does not ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q20 Do you think that Mitt Romney has strong
principles, or not?
He does …………………………………………………. 42%
He does not ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q21 Which of the Republican candidates do you
think has the best chance of defeating Barack
Obama?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 8%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 13%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 4%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 14%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 8%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 1%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 25%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 5%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 23%
Q22 How much attention have you paid to the
televised debates between the candidates so
far: a lot of attention, some attention, or not
much attention at all?
A lot of attention………………………………………. 36%
Some attention………………………………………… 35%
Not much attention at all …………………………… 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q23 Have you seen any of the candidates speak in
person, and if so, how many?
Have not seen any of the candidates in
person…………………………………………………….54%
Have seen only one candidate…………………… 11%
Have seen more than one candidate ………….. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q24 When deciding who to vote for, how important
is it to you that a candidate has spent a lot of
time in Iowa: very important, somewhat
important, or not important at all?
Very important…………………………………………. 22%
Somewhat important ………………………………… 40%
Not important at all…………………………………… 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q25 Who do you think has run the strongest
campaign in Iowa?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 18%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 5%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 26%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 7%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 1%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 5%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 10%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 28%
Q26 Who do you think is going to win the Iowa
caucuses?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 7%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 8%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 29%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 4%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 1%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 15%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 5%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 30%
Q27 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q28 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
Q29 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 4%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 21%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 33%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 37%
Q30 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 8%
Republican……………………………………………… 76%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 16%
Q31 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 26%
No …………………………………………………………. 64%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
