Raleigh, N.C. – For the first time in PPP’s monthly national polling since July 2010 Mitt Romney’s taken a lead, albeit a small one, over Barack Obama. He’s up 47-45.
Romney has two main things going for him. He leads the President 45-36 with independents. And he’s also benefiting from a much more unified party with 88% of Republicans committed to voting for him while only 83% of Democrats say they’ll vote for Obama.
Our national survey confirms the wide electability gap between Romney and the rest of the Republican candidate field. Obama leads both Newt Gingrich (49-44) and Ron Paul (46-41) by 5 points, Michele Bachmann (50-41) by 9, and Rick Perry (50-40) by 10. It continues to look like if GOP voters really want to defeat Obama they pretty much have to nominate Romney.
One thing that could confound Romney’s prospects is if a strong third party candidate entered the race. We find that pretty much all of the big names who have been mentioned for potential independent bids would take a lot more voters from Romney than Obama.
The strongest potential independent candidate we tested is Donald Trump who gets 19% in a three way contest with Obama at 45% and Romney at 31%. The folks who say they would support Trump go for Romney 71-10 in a straight up head to head with Obama. Donald Trump’s ego could potentially prove to be Obama’s greatest asset for reelection in 2012. Others who get double digits as independent candidates are Ron Paul at 17% and Jon Huntsman at 11%.
“The big picture on our national poll remains the same,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Obama/Romney is a toss up, Obama has an advantage on the rest of the Republican field, and a third party candidate could pave the way for Obama’s reelection.”
PPP surveyed 700 registered voters from December 16th to 18th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.7%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 66%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who
would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 9%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and independent Ron Paul, who
would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 37%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 17%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%
Q14 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and independent Michael Bloomberg,
who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Michael Bloomberg ………………………………….. 8%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q15 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and independent Rocky Anderson,
who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Rocky Anderson………………………………………. 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q16 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and independent Jon Huntsman, who
would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 37%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 11%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q17 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and independent Donald Trump, who
would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 31%
Donald Trump …………………………………………. 19%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q18 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and independent Bernie Sanders,
who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Bernie Sanders ……………………………………….. 7%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q19 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q20 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q21 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 24%
Q22 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 8%
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q23 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 16%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
