Newt leads nationally but what does it matter?

It's been a bad week for Newt Gingrich in our early state Republican polling, but we still find him with a good sized lead nationally.  He's at 35% to 22% for Mitt Romney, 11% for Ron Paul, 7% for Michele Bachmann, 6% for Rick Perry, 4% for Rick Santorum, 3% for Jon Huntsman, and 1% for Gary Johnson.

On the surface that's good news for Gingrich but looking under the hood it's more bad news to some extent. We haven't done a national poll in 5 weeks, too long ago to make a good comparison, but on 6 state polls we've conducted since Thanksgiving in Florida, Montana, North Carolina, Colorado, Virginia, and New Mexico Newt has always had a lead of at least 19 points over Romney with the average of those polls coming out to a 27 point advantage at 42-15.  His present national lead represents some serious shrinkage from that. He's also seen a 13 point decline in his net favorability from our last national poll, going from +45 (68/23) to +32 (60/28).

The most interesting finding in this national poll might be that Romney's net favorability has improved 15 points in the last month from just +9 (48/39) to now +24 (55/31).  Republican voters are starting to warm up to him in a way that could pave his path to the nomination. Beyond that Romney is clearly next in line to take the national lead if Gingrich continues to falter.

Not only is he 11 points clear of Paul, his closest competitor, but he's the 2nd choice of 35% of Gingrich voters compared to 16% for Bachmann, 11% for Perry and Santorum, and only 6% for Paul.  If Newt's people keep jumping ship they're likely to end up with Romney.

The main thing our national poll proves is that national polls at this stage are irrelevant. Gingrich may still be doing ok in places where primary voters aren't closely following the Republican contest at this point but in the two states where his record is really facing a lot of scrutiny and voters are paying attention his favorability numbers have plummeted under water and his support has declined precipitously. 

It seems likely that if his support was that fragile in Iowa and New Hampshire, it's probably that fragile in South Carolina and Florida too once the campaign really heats up in those states. The national advantage is pretty irrelevant for Gingrich in the context of what's happening to him in the early states.

Full results here

Comments

[George]

It will be a good idea to run polls in South Carolina this weekend and the middle of the first week in January 2012. If Gingrich makes a resurgence we will see the first indication in South Carolina. I still have a difficult time believing that southern baptists and evangelicals will vote for a mormon. But, I may be wrong.

[Michael Sadowsky]

I agree that the early state polling is more important than national polling, but I don't think it's completely irrelevant. Sure in the early states Gingrich is losing a lot of support, but it's not just because people have been paying attention to the race; it's also because as the frontrunner this past month, Newt has been the main target of attacks, such as the many ads Paul is running against him in Iowa. With Newt weakening, Romney will likely face more scrutiny instead, so I'm not so sure his lead will be just as fragile going forward.

I think the national lead shows that if Romney doesn't gain momentum in Iowa and New Hampshire, Newt could still be in a good enough position to make a comeback in South Carolina and Florida. If Romney wins Iowa and New Hampshire, I think that his momentum will overwhelm Newt, but if Paul wins Iowa and comes close/wins in New Hampshire, Romney won't have much momentum and Newt can rebound.

[Obama 2012]

I agree with Michael Sadowsky.

And certainly Ron Paul, Rick Perry, & Michele Bachmann should be aiming their attack ads at Romney now...

[rick geiger]

So, everyone now understands that with the Paul thing, Iowa has become irrelevant. We all knew that Romney would do well in NH. That leaves SC next. Newt will not allow Romney and other to attack him 8::1 with impunity anymore, and that is the only reason Romney looks better, because Newt has been the by far the prime subject of most of the trash talking from the elite Repub establishment that want to keep the crony capitalist corruption gig going in DC. And the fact that Newt still has 35%, way above everyone else in your poll even after the massive attacks from all quarters makes the number very relevant.

PPP is well known as a flack for the Obama and the Dems and clearly Obama is VERY afraid of running against Newt and wants Romney to get the nomination..so you are pushing that line... In summary your analysis discounts the numbers...so I ask you, why even do the polling???

[James]

Tom, we have now had three pollsters show Gingrich and Romney in a dead heat tie (ABC, CBS and CNN) and a fourth (Gallup) show the race within 2% in the past two days. Serious question - Are you concerned your poll showing a 13% spread might be a little skewed? Are you planning on redoing your national primary poll in the wake of so many other polls showing a much tighter race?

[Elaine]

To Rick Geiger:

This Tea Party supporter is totally against Newt... he's worse than Mitt! Since his fellow Republicans booted him from Congress, it looks like he'll shill for just about anyone willing to give him some money for Tiffany's. Mitt Romney never sat on a couch with Nancy Pelosi for cash.

Still, the only real, principled conservative in the race is Congresswoman Michele Bachmann. She's taken on the establishment and big Wall Street banks, opposing the TARP bailout for Wall Street. But she's also willing to take on big government, even if it means opposing the big spenders in her own party. She is guided by the Constitution -- not whoever gives her a paycheck.

Obama is so weak that it's time to elect a REAL conservative... Michele Bachmann is the only candidate I'm considering!

[Tom Jensen]

James,

No, we're going to use our resources to keep on regularly polling Iowa and New Hampshire. That's considerably more important now than the national picture.

[Obama 2012]

Rick: The idea that the Obama campaign is afraid to run against Newt is preposterous. They would absolutely love it if Newt were to win the nomination. I think they are probably trying to to even think about that gift... it's better to focus on the much more realistic (and much more dangerous) opponent: Mitt Romney.