Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama has brought his approval rating back into the high 40s, and he finds himself with his largest national popular vote lead over Mitt Romney since last May—a turnaround from last month, which was the first time Romney had actually led the president nationally in 17 months.
47% approve and 50% disapprove of the president’s job performance, up from 45-52 in PPP’s December national poll. Obama leads Romney by five points, 49-44. The Republican frontrunner had actually pulled ahead of the president by two points (47-45) in the previous survey.
Romney is still pulling 13% of Democrats, more than any of the other four Republicans tested, but a few more Republicans have moved from Romney’s camp to the ranks of the undecided. The most movement, however, is with independents, who favored Romney by nine points in December and Obama by 10 now.
Obama leads the others by similar margins to last month: Ron Paul also by five (47-42), Newt Gingrich by seven (49-42), and Rick Perry by 11 (51-40). Rick Santorum, tested nationally for the first time, trails by eight points (50-42).
Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is down from 9% to 7% of the national vote since last month, but he still stands to hurt Romney more, helping Obama to a 47-40 win. Another potential candidate, Stephen Colbert, would actually hurt the president more than Romney, pulling 13% of the national vote and keeping Obama to a 41-38 margin.
“Mitt Romney’s in a great position to win the Republican nomination right now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But the things he’s had to say to get to that point don’t seem to be helping him with independent voters. This is the worst he’s polled against Obama since right after Osama bin Laden was killed.”
PPP surveyed 700 American voters from January 13th to 16th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.7%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q7 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q9 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q11 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q12 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who
would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 40%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 7%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Stephen Colbert?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q14 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and independent Stephen Colbert,
who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 38%
Stephen Colbert………………………………………. 13%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 24%
Q18 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 10%
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
