Raleigh, N.C. – In a state he won by a hair in 2008, North Carolinians are now again evenly split on President Obama’s job performance, and he has upped his leads over all four remaining Republican contenders since PPP’s last survey in February.
49% both approve and disapprove of the job Obama is doing in office, basically unchanged from the 48-49 spread PPP found last month. But he now leads GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney by three points (49-46), up from 47-46. He also tops challengers Rick Santorum (49-44, up from 48-46), Ron Paul (48-41, up from 47-41), and Newt Gingrich (51-42, up from 50-45).
Though their personal popularity, like the president’s, remains essentially unmoved from the previous survey, the Republicans are all far less liked than the president is, a common theme throughout the primary process, but increasingly so. Santorum is actually best liked, but only 36% see him favorably, to 52% unfavorably. That is followed by Romney (31-56), Paul (27-57), and Gingrich (28-59).
Obama loses 13-16% of his party to the Republicans, but he still locks up about as much of his base (81-82%) as the Republicans do (77% for Paul to 84% for Romney and Santorum) because more of them remain undecided.
Santorum and Gingrich are splitting conservatives in the primary such that Romney remains in the lead. He has 31% to Santorum’s 27% and Gingrich’s 24%, but if Gingrich were to drop out before May 8th, Santorum would lead with 42% to Romney’s 38%.
“North Carolina is a classic example of the spoiler effect Newt Gingrich is having at this point,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If Newt’s in the race, Mitt Romney’s the small favorite in the state. If he’s out, Rick Santorum becomes the leader.”
PPP surveyed 804 North Carolina voters, including an oversample of 492 usual Republican primary voters, from March 8th to 11th. The margin of error for the entire survey is +/-3.5%, and +/-4.4% for the GOP sample. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q6 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q7 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q9 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q13 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
African-American …………………………………….. 21%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q15
252………………………………………………………… 9%
336………………………………………………………… 19%
704………………………………………………………… 22%
828………………………………………………………… 14%
910………………………………………………………… 15%
919………………………………………………………… 20%
Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney,
and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 24%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 31%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 27%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 10%
Q6 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 49%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 51%
Q7 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 38%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 32%
No …………………………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q9 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 64%
Are not …………………………………………………… 36%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 42%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 37%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 3%
Republican……………………………………………… 77%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%