Polls

Obama holds narrow edge in North Carolina

| Tom Jensen

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PresidentGraphRaleigh, N.C.–
President Barack Obama added a couple of points to his slim margin over Mitt Romney in North Carolina that PPP found in a survey last month, bringing his current lead in the state to 3 points, at 49% to 46%. While Obama picked up two points in his approval rating to bring it to -1, Romney’s favorability experienced a drop of 5 points.

Independent voters have warmed up to the President considerably over the past month, turning towards Obama by 12 points, though still favoring Romney by a 48% to 44% mark. Obama’s approval rating has also improved among this key demographic, from a scathing -25 in July to -13 today.

This most recent survey includes results among North Carolina’s newer residents, asking both if respondents were born in the Tar Heel state and how long they have lived there. Obama’s entire margin comes from non native North Carolinians. In this group, the President leads 51% to 45%, while he is tied with Romney among natives at 47%.

Even more telling is Obama’s standing with the newest group of NC residents; among those who have lived in the state for 10 years or less, a group that constitutes 11% of the voting population, Obama leads by 39 points. Romney’s share of the vote generally increases with length of NC residence, peaking at +14 with those who have lived in North Carolina for 40 years or more.

“North Carolina continues to be one of the closest states in the country,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Month after month we find Barack Obama and Mitt Romney polling within 3 points of each other.”

When possible Vice Presidential candidates are included on the Republican ticket, only favorite son Senator Richard Burr and the exceedingly popular Condoleezza Rice produce positive motion for Romney, with Rice pulling the race into a tie at 47%.

PPP surveyed 813 likely North Carolina voters from August 2nd to 5th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q3 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Richard Burr’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .31%
Disapprove…………. .34%
Not sure …………….. .35%

Q5 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Richard Burr for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 49%
Romney-Burr ………………………………………….. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bobby Jindal?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%

Q7 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Bobby Jindal for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 48%
Romney-Jindal………………………………………… 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%

Q9 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Tim Pawlenty for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 48%
Romney-Pawlenty……………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rob Portman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 57%

Q11 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Rob Portman for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 48%
Romney-Portman…………………………………….. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Condoleezza Rice?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 61%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q13 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Condoleezza Rice for Vice
President, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 47%
Romney-Rice ………………………………………….. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%

Q14 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 47%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%

Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%

Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%

Q18 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
African-American …………………………………….. 20%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

Q20 Were you born in North Carolina or in another
state?
North Carolina…….. .62% Another state ……… .38%

Q21 How long have you lived in North Carolina: 10
years or less, 11 to 20 years, 21 to 30 years,
31 to 40 years, or more than 40 years?
10 years or less ….. .11%
11 to 20 years …….. .17%
21 to 30 years …….. .18%
31 to 40 years …….. .15%
More than 40 years .39%

Q22 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 14%
336………………………………………………………… 21%
704………………………………………………………… 17%
828………………………………………………………… 11%
910………………………………………………………… 15%
919………………………………………………………… 23%

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