Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s newest North Carolina poll finds the state all tied up for a second week
in a row: Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are each at 49% and virtually no voters
remain undecided.
If Obama ends up pulling out another narrow victory in the state he’ll have
done it during the early voting period. Among those who report already having
voted he’s ahead by a 58/41 margin. Romney leads 58/40 with those who haven’t
voted yet and he’ll really need them to turn out if he’s going to catch up with
Obama.
“The Presidential race in North Carolina is tied up with 6 days to go and
undecided voters basically no longer exist,” said Dean Debnam, President of
Public Policy Polling. “It all comes down to the ground game now.”
The Governor’s race is pretty steady with Pat McCrory at 50% to 39% for
Walter Dalton and 4% for Libertarian Barbara Howe. All of our polls since Labor
Day have shown McCrory with a lead in the 10-13 point range. McCrory has a
52/34 favorability rating and is winning over 24% of the Democratic vote.
The open race for Lieutenant Governor continues to look like it will be the
state’s closest besides President this year. Republican Dan Forest has a slim
lead over Democratic foe Linda Coleman, 43/41. Every poll we’ve done on this
race has found the candidates within a couple points of each other.
In the other Council of State races we tested incumbents lead comfortably.
Democrat Janet Cowell leads 46-41 for reelection as State Treasurer, Republican
Steve Troxler is up 48-38 for Agriculture Commissioner, and Democrat Beth Wood
has extended her lead to 50-38 in the Auditor’s race amidst a lot of personal
drama for her Republican challenger Debra Goldman. In the critical Supreme
Court contest Sam Ervin IV leads Paul Newby 39-35, but with 26% of voters
undecided in the nonpartisan race it could still end up going either way.
PPP surveyed 730
likely voters from October 29th to 31st. The margin of error for the
survey is +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 1%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 1%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Walter Dalton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat McCrory?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q6 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
Walter Dalton, Republican Pat McCrory, and
Libertarian Barbara Howe. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Walter Dalton ………………………………………….. 39%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 50%
Barbara Howe…………………………………………. 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q7 Have you already voted, either at an early
voting site or with an absentee ballot?
Yes………………………………………………………… 52%
No …………………………………………………………. 48%
Q8 The candidates for Lieutenant Governor are
Democrat Linda Coleman and Republican Dan
Forest. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Linda Coleman………………………………………… 41%
Dan Forest ……………………………………………… 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q9 The candidates for State Treasurer are
Democrat Janet Cowell and Republican Steve
Royal. If the election was today, who would you
vote for?
Janet Cowell …………………………………………… 46%
Steve Royal ……………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q10 The candidates for Agriculture Commissioner
are Democrat Walter Smith and Republican
Steve Troxler. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Walter Smith …………………………………………… 38%
Steve Troxler…………………………………………… 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q11 The candidates for State Auditor are Democrat
Beth Wood and Republican Debra Goldman. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Beth Wood……………………………………………… 50%
Debra Goldman ………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q12 The candidates for Supreme Court are Sam
Ervin IV and Paul Newby. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Sam Ervin IV…………………………………………… 39%
Paul Newby…………………………………………….. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 26%
Q13 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of the economy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q14 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of foreign policy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q15 Are you very excited, somewhat excited, or not
at all excited about voting in the 2012
elections?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 69%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 23%
Not at all excited ……………………………………… 9%
Q16 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the
General Assembly is doing?
Approve …………….. .16%
Disapprove…………. .57%
Not sure …………….. .27%
Q17 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Democrats in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q18 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republicans in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q19 If there was an election for the state legislature
today, would you vote Democratic or
Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q20 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q21 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 16%
Q22 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 71%
African-American …………………………………….. 22%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q23 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
Q24 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 10%
336………………………………………………………… 20%
704………………………………………………………… 19%
828………………………………………………………… 16%
910………………………………………………………… 13%
919………………………………………………………… 21%
