Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s newest Pennsylvania poll finds Barack Obama’s lead in the state declining
by 5 points over the last month, but he still has a 7 point advantage at
51-44. He led 52-40 in mid-September.
Pennsylvania voters narrowly approve of the job Obama is doing, with 49%
giving him good marks to 47% who disapprove. Romney continues to have trouble
connecting with voters in the Keystone State, as 44% express a favorable
opinion of him to 49% who see him negatively.
Obama is competitive with white voters, trailing Romney only 49/46. Add in
Obama’s 86/7 lead with African Americans and it gives him his overall
advantage. He also leads with both women (53/42) and men (48/46). Finally he
has a 51/41 advantage with independents.
The Pennsylvania Senate race isn’t looking terribly competitive. Bob Casey
leads Republican challenger Tom Smith 50-39, an 11 point lead that’s pretty
similar to the 10 point one we found for Casey at 46-36 in July. Casey has a
44-36 advantage with independents and he continues to enjoy greater than normal
crossover support for a Democrat, taking 17% of the GOP vote.
Pennsylvanians continue to be closely divided on Casey’s job performance
with 37% approving of him to 39% who disapprove. That’s largely because he’s at
only 58% approval with Democrats, but even though they’re not necessarily
thrilled with Casey most of them are still planning to vote for him. Smith
hasn’t proven to be a very popular challenger, with only 33% of voters rating
him favorably to 36% with a negative opinion. 31% still aren’t familiar with
him.
“Barack Obama and Bob Casey still look like pretty clear favorites in
Pennsylvania,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “They
might not win by as much as they did last time but they don’t look terribly
vulnerable either.”
PPP surveyed 500 likely
Pennsylvania voters from October 12th to 14th. The margin of error
for the survey is +/-4.4%. This poll was not
paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys
are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney.
If the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bob
Casey’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .37%
Disapprove…………. .39%
Not sure …………….. .24%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Smith?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q6 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Bob Casey and Republican Tom Smith. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Bob Casey ……………………………………………… 50%
Tom Smith………………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 36%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 15%
Q10 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
