Raleigh, N.C. – Some consider 2010 a pro-Republican, anti-Democratic year, but if PPP’s data in North Carolina are replicated across the country, the sentiment against all incumbents is much stronger than the feelings against just Democrats. The real danger to Democrats is not their party identification or their ideology—it is simply that they have more seats to defend in Congress, governor’s mansions, and in North Carolina at least, in the state legislature, at a time when government and politicians in general are very unpopular.
43% of North Carolinians would rather vote for challengers than incumbents this year; those in power are favored by only 13%. Compare that to the slim margins the GOP gets in the generic congressional—46 to 40—and legislative ballots—45 to 42.
Democrats are only slightly more disposed to challengers, 28-22, but sentiment among Republicans and independents is unequivocal. The GOP and unaffiliateds favor fresh blood by 54-6 and 58-8 margins, respectively. Independents, however, only favor the generic Republican congressional and legislative candidate by 37-22 and 36-24 margins, respectively.
“Because they are in power in North Carolina and Washington, Democrats are in real trouble, and the net trend is toward the GOP,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But with our previous polls showing that congressional and legislative Republicans are even less popular than their Democratic counterparts, there are Democratic challengers who can neutralize this trend and pick up some Republican seats if they cast themselves as outsiders.”
Complete results are attached, including numbers on Governor Bev Perdue, state troopers, runoff elections, and corporal punishment by both parents and teachers. Results can also be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
PPP surveyed 502 North Carolina voters from June 28th to 30th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bev
Perdue’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 33%
Disapprove………… 47%
Not Sure……………. 19%
Q2 Compared to her first year in office do you think
Governor Perdue is doing a better job, a worse
job, or about the same in her second year? If
you think she’s doing better, press 1. If worse,
press 2. If about the same, press 3. If you’re
not sure, press 4.
Doing Better……………………………………………. 19%
Doing Worse…………………………………………… 24%
About the same……………………………………….. 50%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 7%
Q3 If there was an election for the state legislature
today, would you vote Democratic or
Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q4 If there was an election for Congress today,
would you vote Democratic or Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 How excited are you about casting your vote in
the general election this fall?
Very excited……………………………………………. 43%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 25%
Not very excited………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q6 Do you think North Carolina should continue to
have runoff elections if no candidate reaches
40% in a primary? If yes, press 1. If no, press
2. If you’re not sure, press 3.
Yes…………………… 41%
No ……………………. 32%
Not Sure……………. 27%
Q7 Do you think the candidates requesting a runoff
election should pay for the costs associated
with it? If yes, press 1. If no, press 2. If you’re
not sure, press 3.
Yes ……………………………………………………….. 56%
No …………………………………………………………. 24%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 20%
Q8 Do you think it is appropriate for parents to
spank their children when they misbehave? If
yes, press 1. If no, press 2. If you’re not sure,
press 3.
Yes ……………………………………………………….. 76%
No …………………………………………………………. 14%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 11%
Q9 Do you think public school teachers should be
able to spank children who misbehave? If yes,
press 1. If no, press 2. If you’re not sure,
press 3.
Yes ……………………………………………………….. 39%
No …………………………………………………………. 51%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of state troopers? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 67%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 17%
Q11 Generally speaking this year would you rather
vote for incumbents or challengers? If
incumbents, press 1. If challengers, press 2. If
you’re not sure, press 3.
Incumbents …………………………………………….. 13%
Challengers…………………………………………….. 43%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 44%
Q12 Do you have any children? If yes, press 1. If
no, press 2.
Yes ……………………………………………………….. 80%
No …………………………………………………………. 20%
Q13 Who did you vote for President last year?
John McCain…………………………………………… 47%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 38%
Conservative…………………………………………… 44%
Q15 I am going to name 7 issues. Which of these is
most important to you? The War in Iraq,
education, the economy and jobs, taxes, moral
or family values, health care, or immigration. If
the War in Iraq is most important, press 1. If
education, press 2. If the economy and jobs,
press 3. If taxes, press 4. If moral and family
values, press 5. If health care, press 6. If
immigration, press 7. If some other issue is
most important, press 8.
War in Iraq ……………………………………………… 5%
Education……………………………………………….. 14%
Economy and Jobs ………………………………….. 47%
Taxes…………………………………………………….. 5%
Moral and family values ……………………………. 14%
Health care …………………………………………….. 7%
Immigration…………………………………………….. 6%
Other……………………………………………………… 1%
Q16 Would you describe the community you live in
as urban, suburban, rural, or a small town?
Urban…………………………………………………….. 11%
Suburban ……………………………………………….. 27%
Rural ……………………………………………………… 29%
Small Town…………………………………………….. 32%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 57%
Man……………………………………………………….. 43%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
