Raleigh, N.C. – Four weeks out from primary day, the Republican race for Senate in North Carolina continues to look like it’s headed for a runoff. Thom Tillis leads the GOP field with 18% to 15% for Greg Brannon, 11% for Mark Harris, 7% for Heather Grant, 6% for Ted Alexander, 5% for Alex Bradshaw, 2% for Jim Snyder, and 1% for Edward Kryn. 34% of voters remain undecided and Tillis will probably have to win most of them in order to get to the 40% mark needed to avoid a runoff.

Tillis’ small lead comes in spite of having far greater name recognition than the rest of the Republican field. 60% of voters know enough about him to have formed an opinion compared to 31% for Brannon and 30% for Harris, the other serious Republican contenders at this point. Tillis and Harris have both seen their support increase 4 points from a month ago, while Brannon has gained just one point.

“The Republican primary race is still pretty wide open with less than a month to go until the election,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Thom Tillis just hasn’t been able to break away from the pack.”

The general election story is the same as it’s been for six months now- Kay Hagan has negative approval numbers and finds herself within the margin of error against all of her potential Republican opponents. 41% of voters approve of the job Hagan’s doing to 48% who disapprove, pretty much what we’ve found ever since ads started attacking her over Obamacare in October.

She trails most of her Republicans opponents by small margins- it’s 44/40 against Mark Harris, 43/39 against Heather Grant, 42/40 against Greg Brannon, 41/40 against Edward Kryn, 42/41 against Alex Bradshaw, and 43/42 against Ted Alexander. Hagan does tie Jim Snyder at 41, and the one Republican who she actually leads is her most likely opponent- she has a slim 43/41 edge over Thom Tillis. In Tillis’ case being well known is not necessarily a positive thing- his time at the helm of an unpopular legislature has left him with a 20/39 favorability rating.

PPP surveyed 740 registered voters from April 3rd to 6th, including 314 Republican primary voters. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.6%, and for the Republicans it’s +/-5.5%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Hagan’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Alexander?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alex Bradshaw?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Brannon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Heather Grant?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Harris?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Edward Kryn?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 81%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Snyder?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 80%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%

Q11 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Ted
Alexander, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 42%
Ted Alexander…………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q12 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Alex
Bradshaw, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 41%
Alex Bradshaw………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q13 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Greg
Brannon, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 40%
Greg Brannon …………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q14 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Heather
Grant, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 39%
Heather Grant …………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q15 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Mark
Harris, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 40%
Mark Harris …………………………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q16 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Edward
Kryn, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 40%
Edward Kryn …………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q17 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Jim
Snyder, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 41%
Jim Snyder……………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q18 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Thom
Tillis, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 43%
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q19 Do you believe that the tax reform passed by
the legislature last summer resulted in a tax
increase for 80% of North Carolinians?
Yes………………………………………………………… 45%
No …………………………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%

Q20 Do you believe that the tax reform passed by
the legislature was actually just a tax cut for the
wealthy?
Yes………………………………………………………… 47%
No …………………………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%

Q21 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Koch brothers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%

Q22 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 4%

Q23 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q24 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 22%

Q25 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 20%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q26 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are 65
or older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%

Q27 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

Q28 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 11%
336………………………………………………………… 15%
704………………………………………………………… 14%
828………………………………………………………… 10%
910………………………………………………………… 11%
919………………………………………………………… 19%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Alexander?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alex Bradshaw?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Brannon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Heather Grant?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Harris?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Edward Kryn?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 84%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Snyder?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 84%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%

Q9 The Republican candidates for Senate are Ted
Alexander, Alex Bradshaw, Greg Brannon,
Heather Grant, Mark Harris, Edward Kryn, Jim
Snyder, and Thom Tillis. If the primary was
today, who would you vote for?
Ted Alexander…………………………………………. 6%
Alex Bradshaw………………………………………… 5%
Greg Brannon …………………………………………. 15%
Heather Grant …………………………………………. 7%
Mark Harris …………………………………………….. 11%
Edward Kryn …………………………………………… 1%
Jim Snyder……………………………………………… 2%
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 18%
Someone else / Not sure ………………………….. 34%

Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 21%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 32%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 39%

Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%

Q12 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are 65 or older, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 32%

Q13 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 9%
336………………………………………………………… 19%
704………………………………………………………… 20%
828………………………………………………………… 13%
910………………………………………………………… 12%
919………………………………………………………… 15%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 12%