Raleigh, N.C. – When PPP last took a look at President Obama’s re-election effort in Mississippi back in March, he was actually trailing a few of his potential opponents by single-digit margins. That is no longer the case. All but one of the six Republicans tested against him in the latest survey beat Obama by larger spreads than John McCain’s 13-point win three years ago.
Mitt Romney, as nearly everywhere, tops the president by the largest amount, 18 points (54-36), up 12 points from a six-point lead in March. Rick Perry and Herman Cain each lead by 17 (55-38 and 54-37, respectively); neither was tested eight months ago. Newt Gingrich leads by 16 (54-38), up 10 points from March. Ron Paul is up 15 (52-37), and Michele Bachmann by 12 (52-40); neither was polled last time. The Republicans lead by 23 to 44 points with independents, and take 12-13% of the Democratic vote.
Obama’s approval rating has declined 11 points from 42-54 in March to 36-59 now. Only four states where PPP has measured him this year see the president worse (Nebraska, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming)—all much whiter states. Only 16% of white Mississippi voters approve of Obama’s performance, with 80% disapproving. That figure has actually not changed from March. What makes this state unique is that its large share of black voters have soured a little on the president, from 93-5 to 80-14.
Unlike in other states, black voters in Mississippi who disapprove are not rallying behind the president when it comes time to vote. Still roughly 80% of them vote for him, but that is down from over 90% in the previous poll. Herman Cain gets the largest share of the black vote, at 15%, but the others pull 12-14%.
“There’s going to have to be some sort of major national partisan realignment before Democrats can hope to win Mississippi in the Presidential race again,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 796 likely Mississippi voters from November 4th to 6th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 36%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 52%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 37%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 54%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 38%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 54%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 37%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 52%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 38%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 55%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 36%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 54%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q14 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 54%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 10%
Moderate………………………………………………… 21%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 32%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 47%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 14%
Q18 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 66%
African-American …………………………………….. 30%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 16%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
