Raleigh, N.C. – After several months of declining poll numbers that saw Kay Hagan go from leading her potential GOP opponents by double digits to being effectively tied with most of them, her numbers have leveled out this month. 43% of voters approve of the job she’s doing to 49% who disapprove, almost identical to 44/49 in November. Still it’s clear the Obamacare rollout has taken its toll on her- in September she had this same 43% approval rating, but her disapproval has spiked 10 points from its 39% level then.
Hagan finds herself in toss up territory with all of her potential Republican opponents. She leads Thom Tillis 44/42, is tied with both Heather Grant and Mark Harris at 43, and trails both Greg Brannon and Bill Flynn 45/43. Those numbers are all pretty similar to what they were in November.
It may seem counter intuitive that Tillis, generally seen as the likely Republican candidate, is the only one who trails Hagan. That’s a reflection of his being the only one of the GOP candidates who’s particularly well known, and it not being a good thing for him. Only 12% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 30% with a negative one, a residual effect of his association with this year’s unpopular legislative session. That’s causing him to poll slightly worse than the more generic Republican candidates.
One thing that could play to Hagan’s advantage is the chaotic status of the Republican primary field in the state. 44% of GOP voters aren’t sure who they want their candidate to be next year and right now Tillis is only polling at 13% to 12% for Harris, 11% for Brannon and Grant, and 8% for Flynn. That’s the kind of tightness that could lead to a GOP runoff, as Republican Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest predicted earlier this week.
“The good news for Kay Hagan is that this race has stabilized after several months of things getting progressively worse for her,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But it’s definitely looking like a much tighter race now than it had for most of the year.”
PPP surveyed 1,281 North Carolina voters, including an oversample of 529 Republican primary voters, from December 5th to 8th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 2.7% and for the Republican primary part it’s +/-4.3%. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Hagan’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Brannon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Flynn?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 71%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Heather Grant?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Harris?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Greg
Brannon, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 43%
Greg Brannon …………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Bill
Flynn, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 43%
Bill Flynn ………………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Heather
Grant, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 43%
Heather Grant …………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q11 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Mark
Harris, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 43%
Mark Harris …………………………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q12 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Thom
Tillis, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 44%
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q13 Do you approve or disapprove of the Affordable
Care Act?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q14 Do you think the implementation of the
Affordable Care Act so far has been very
successful, somewhat successful, somewhat
unsuccessful, very unsuccessful, or are you
not sure?
Very successful……………………………………….. 4%
Somewhat successful ………………………………. 26%
Somewhat unsuccessful …………………………… 20%
Very unsuccessful……………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q15 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or ve ry conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%
Q19 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African-American …………………………………….. 21%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q20 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are 65 or older, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 36%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Q21 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 13%
336………………………………………………………… 17%
704………………………………………………………… 23%
828………………………………………………………… 14%
910………………………………………………………… 13%
919………………………………………………………… 19%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Brannon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Flynn?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Heather Grant?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Harris?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%
Q6 Given the choices of Greg Brannon, Bill Flynn,
Heather Grant, Mark Harris, and Thom Tillis,
who would you most like to see as the
Republican candidate for Senate in 2014?
Greg Brannon …………………………………………. 11%
Bill Flynn ………………………………………………… 8%
Heather Grant …………………………………………. 11%
Mark Harris …………………………………………….. 12%
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 13%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 44%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or ve ry conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 7%
Moderate………………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 39%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 37%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q9 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are 65 or older, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 33%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 31%
Q10 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 11%
336………………………………………………………… 21%
704………………………………………………………… 22%
828………………………………………………………… 18%
910………………………………………………………… 12%
919………………………………………………………… 15%
