Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s final poll in Michigan finds Rick Santorum holding on to the smallest of leads with 38% to 37% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Ron Paul, and 9% for Newt Gingrich.
It’s always good to be cautious with one night poll numbers, but momentum seems to be swinging in Santorum’s direction. Romney led with those interviewed on Sunday, but Santorum has a 39-34 advantage with folks polled on Monday. The best sign that things have gone back toward Santorum might be that with those polled today who hadn’t already voted, Santorum’s advantage was 41-31.
Much has been made of Democratic efforts to turn out the vote for Santorum and we see evidence that’s actually happening. Romney leads with actual Republican voters, 43-38. But Santorum’s up 47-10 with Democratic voters, and even though they’re only 8% of the likely electorate that’s enough to put him over the top.
Even though things seem to be moving back in Santorum’s direction, there’s one big reason to think that Romney will still come out as the winner tomorrow night. 18% of the electorate has already cast its ballots and with those voters in the bank Romney has a 56-29 advantage. Santorum’s likely to win election day voters, but he”s going to have to do it by a wide margin to erase the lead Romney has stored. We see Santorum with a 40-33 advantage among those who have yet to vote.
Romney hasn’t made a good last impression on Michigan voters. His favorability in Sunday interviews was 57/36, but in Monday interviews it was only 47/48. Santorum saw little difference in his reviews between the two days: 54/39 on Sunday and 56/36 on Monday.
“It looks like things in Michigan are swinging back toward Rick Santorum in the final hours before the polls open,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The big questions are whether Romney’s absentee vote lead is too large for Santorum to make up, and whether Democrats really will turn out to support Santorum in the GOP primary.”
PPP surveyed 922 likely Republican primary voters on February 26th and 27th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.2%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary
or the Democratic primary, or are you not sure?
Republican primary………………………………….100%
Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q2 Have you already cast your ballot for President,
or do you plan to vote on election day?
Already voted………………………………………….. 17%
Plan to vote on election day………………………. 83%
Q3 (Early voters:) Did you vote for Newt Gingrich,
Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 9%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 56%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 29%
Q4 (Election day/not sure voters:) The Republican
candidates for President are Newt Gingrich,
Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 9%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 16%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 33%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 40%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 3%
Q5 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 73%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 27%
Q6 (Combined Horse Race, Q3 and Q4)
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 9%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 14%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 37%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 38%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 2%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q11 Did you watch the debate in Arizona on
Wednesday night?
Yes………………………………………………………… 34%
No …………………………………………………………. 66%
Q12 Generally speaking, would you prefer to vote
for a candidate you agree with most on the
issues or a candidate who you think is best
able to beat Barack Obama?
A candidate you agree with most on the
issues …………………………………………………….56%
A candidate you think is best able to beat
Obama……………………………………………………33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q13 Are you more concerned with a candidate’s
position on economic issues like jobs,
spending, taxes, and bailouts, or a candidate’s
position on social issues like abortion, birth
control, gay marriage, and immigration?
Economic issues……………………………………… 64%
Social issues…………………………………………… 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%
Q15 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 34%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 30%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 4%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 35%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 36%
Q17 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 24%
No …………………………………………………………. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q18 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 42%
Are not …………………………………………………… 58%
Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If an independent, press
3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 8%
Republican……………………………………………… 63%
Independent……………………………………………. 29%
Q20 Are you or is anyone in your household a
member of a labor union?
Yes………………………………………………………… 23%
No …………………………………………………………. 77%
Q21 Area Code
231………………………………………………………… 9%
248………………………………………………………… 12%
269………………………………………………………… 12%
313………………………………………………………… 4%
517………………………………………………………… 8%
586………………………………………………………… 6%
616………………………………………………………… 12%
734………………………………………………………… 11%
810………………………………………………………… 8%
906………………………………………………………… 5%
989………………………………………………………… 12%
Q22 Day of Interview
Sunday…………………………………………………… 44%
Monday………………………………………………….. 56%
