Raleigh, N.C. – Democrat Tim Kaine leads former Republican Senator George Allen by just 1 point in their U.S. Senate race, a new survey from Public Policy Polling finds. Kaine takes 46% of the vote and Allen 45%, with 9% undecided. The race has tightened since the last time PPP polled the contest – in July 2011 Kaine led Allen 46%-43%. Kaine leads Allen among Democrats, 77-13, while Allen leads Kaine among Republicans 83-10 and independents break slightly for Allen, 46-44.
Tim Kaine’s favorability rating sits at 42% positive and 37% negative, a net positive rating but far below 50%. Allen is at 38% positive and 38% negative. Kaine has an edge in favorability ratings with independents – they view him favorably by a 41-39 margin. Allen isn’t viewed nearly as positively by independents, with just 34% viewing him favorably and 43% unfavorably.
Kaine leads his two other potential Republican opponents easily – he leads Jamie Radtke by 15 points, 50-35, and he leads Bob Marshall by 13, 49-36. Marshall (7% favorable, 19% unfavorable, 75% not sure) and Radtke (6% favorable, 17% unfavorable, 77% not sure) are simply non-entities to voters.
It sure looks like Kaine is stuck with Allen – he holds a commanding lead in the Republican primary, getting 66% of the vote compared to Bob Marshall’s 8%, Jamie Radtke’s 3%, and E.W. Jackson’s 2%. Republicans view Allen favorably by a 65-17 margin, while over 75% of Republicans aren’t familiar enough with either Marshall or Radtke to form an opinion of them.
“The Virginia Senate race is about the most boring race we poll,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It’s always too close to call and probably will be all the way to November. Voters know the candidates, are split in their feelings about them, and haven’t shown much inclination to budge.”
PPP surveyed 680 Virginia voters and 400 Virginia Republican primary voters from April 26th to 29th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.8% for the overall survey and +/- 4.9% for the Republican primary survey. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George Allen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob Marshall?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jamie Radtke?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Kaine?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q5 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican George Allen and Democrat Tim
Kaine, who would you vote for?
George Allen…………………………………………… 45%
Tim Kaine……………………………………………….. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q6 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Jamie Radtke and Democrat Tim
Kaine, who would you vote for?
Jamie Radtke………………………………………….. 35%
Tim Kaine……………………………………………….. 50%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Bob Marshall and Democrat Tim
Kaine, who would you vote for?
Bob Marshall…………………………………………… 36%
Tim Kaine……………………………………………….. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 43%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 29%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 19%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 29%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
