Polls

Hagan maintains lead in North Carolina Senate race

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s newest North Carolina poll finds a steady race, with Kay Hagan leading at 46% to 43% for Thom Tillis and 5% for Sean Haugh. This is the third month in a row that Hagan has held an advantage of either 3 or 4 points. In a two candidate race Hagan still leads Tillis 47/44, indicating that Haugh’s potential ‘spoiler effect’ on the race is waning. Haugh’s supporters only say their second choice would be Tillis by a 34/30 spread now, considerably closer than the difference was earlier in the campaign.

Both candidates remain unpopular in the closing stretch of the contest, but Hagan at least fares a little bit better with voters than Haugh does. 41% of voters approve of the job she’s doing to 50% who disapprove, for a -9 net approval rating. That’s not good but it puts her ahead of Tillis who just 37% of voters see favorably to 49% who have a negative opinion, for a -12 net favorability rating.

There’s nothing very surprising about where the candidates’ support is coming from. Hagan is up 49/37 with women, 85/4 with African Americans, and 61/27 with young voters. Meanwhile Tillis is up 49/42 with men, 55/34 with white voters, and 54/37 with seniors. Tillis is ahead 43/38 with independents but in an unusual finding for North Carolina politics, Hagan is getting the same share of the Democratic vote (81%) that Tillis getting of the Republican vote and if you do that as a Democrat in North Carolina you’re generally going to win given the party’s voter registration advantage in the state.

“The North Carolina Senate race has always been close,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But Kay Hagan’s lead has been persistent for six months now.”

Voters in the state remain very closely divided in their feelings about state politics. 40% approve of the job Pat McCrory is doing to 43% who disapprove. The General Assembly continues to be very unpopular with a 25% approval rating to 52% of voters who disapprove of it, but despite Republican control voter anger with it doesn’t seem to know party bounds. The Democrats have a 38/48 favorability rating, with the Republicans at 40/45. The generic legislative ballot is still very tight, with 46% of voters saying they would choose a Republican candidate and 44% a Democrat if the election was today.

PPP surveyed 780 likely voters from October 16th to 18th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.5%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Hagan’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sean Haugh?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%

Q5 The candidates for U.S. Senate are Democrat
Kay Hagan, Republican Thom Tillis, and
Libertarian Sean Haugh. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 46%
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 43%
Sean Haugh……………………………………………. 5%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%

Q6 Combined horse race, with Haugh supporters
asked if they lean Hagan or Tillis
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 47%
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Pat
McCrory’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Richard Burr’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 31%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%

Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the
General Assembly is doing?
Approve …………………………………………………. 25%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Democrats in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republicans in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q12 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
the state legislature today, would you vote for
the Democratic or Republican candidate from
your district?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q13 Given the choices of Appalachian State, Duke,
East Carolina, UNC, NC State, and Wake
Forest, which is your favorite college football
team in North Carolina?
App State……………………………………………….. 8%
Duke ……………………………………………………… 16%
ECU………………………………………………………. 13%
UNC………………………………………………………. 23%
NC State ………………………………………………… 13%
Wake Forest …………………………………………… 4%
Not sure / No favorite……………………………….. 22%

Q14 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 6%

Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%

Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 19%

Q18 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African-American …………………………………….. 20%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%

Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are 65
or older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%

Q20 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

Q21 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 9%
336………………………………………………………… 19%
704………………………………………………………… 16%
828………………………………………………………… 11%
910………………………………………………………… 12%
919………………………………………………………… 13%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

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