Raleigh, N.C. – Newt Gingrich heads into South Carolina election day as the clear front runner in the state: he’s now polling at 37% to 28% for Mitt Romney, 16% for Rick Santorum, and 14% for Ron Paul.
Gingrich’s lead has actually increased in the wake of his ex-wife’s controversial interview with ABC. Although one night poll results should always be interpreted with caution, he led the final night of the field period by a 40-26 margin. One thing that continues to work to his advantage are the debates. 60% of primary voters report having watched the one last night, and Gingrich has a 46-23 lead with those folks.
The other reason his ex-wife’s interview isn’t causing him much trouble is that there’s a lot of skepticism about it. Only 31% of voters say they think her accusations are true while 35% think they are false and 34% are unsure. 51% of voters say that they have ‘no concerns’ about what came out in the interview.
The skepticism of Republican voters toward the media is helping Gingrich as well. Just 14% of likely voters have a generally favorable opinion of the media, while 77% view it negatively. Gingrich’s attacks on the media have clearly played well with the party base.
Gingrich is leading with pretty much every key segment of the Republican electorate. He’s up 41-21 on Romney and Santorum with Evangelicals, he has a 52-18 advantage on Romney with Tea Partiers, he leads Santorum 44-21 with ‘very conservative’ voters with Romney at 20%, and he’s up 39-26 with men.
“Newt Gingrich looks like the clear favorite now in tomorrow’s primary,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “There was a thought that his ex-wife’s interview could stop his momentum in South Carolina, but instead it seems to have reinforced his support. He’s winning with all the key groups that determine the winners and losers in Palmetto state GOP politics.”
PPP surveyed 1,540 likely Republican primary voters from January 18th to 20th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary
or the Democratic primary, or are you not sure?
Republican primary………………………………….100%
Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q2 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney,
and Rick Santorum who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 37%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 14%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 28%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 16%
Someone Else/Not Sure …………………………… 5%
Q3 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 78%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 22%
Q4 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 18%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 11%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 17%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 22%
Someone Else/Not Sure …………………………… 32%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 32%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 35%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 41%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 4%
Republican……………………………………………… 75%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q14 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 25%
No …………………………………………………………. 65%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q15 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are ………………………………………………………… 56%
Are not …………………………………………………… 44%
Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the media?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 77%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q17 Did you watch the debate last night, or not?
(Asked only of Friday respondents)
Watched…………………………………………………. 60%
Did not …………………………………………………… 40%
Q18 Are you familiar with accusations by Newt
Gingrich’s ex-wife that he wanted to have an
‘open marriage,’ or not? (Asked only of Friday
respondents)
Familiar ………………………………………………….. 86%
Not familiar……………………………………………… 14%
Q19 (Among those familiar) Do the accusations give
you major concerns about Newt Gingrich,
some concerns, or do they not concern you at
all? (Asked only of Friday respondents)
Major concerns ……………………………………….. 21%
Some concerns……………………………………….. 26%
No concerns……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q20 (Among those familiar) Do you think the
accusations against Newt Gingrich by his exwife
are true, or not? (Asked only of Friday
respondents)
True……………………………………………………….. 31%
Not true………………………………………………….. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q21 Region
Low Country……………………………………………. 35%
Midlands ………………………………………………… 33%
Upstate ………………………………………………….. 31%
