PPP's newest Florida poll finds a very tight race for President in the state. In the full field Donald Trump gets 44% to 43% for Hillary Clinton, with Gary Johnson at 5%, and Jill Stein and Evan McMullin each at 1%. But in a head to head between Clinton and Trump, the nominal lead flips to Clinton at 47/46. That's because voters who support one of the minor candidates or are undecided in the full field pick Clinton by 12 points over Trump if they had to choose just between the two major candidates.
Much has been made about how Trump will struggle in Florida because of his weakness with minorities and that's certainly the case. Among non-white voters he trails Clinton by 49 points, getting just 22% to her 71%. But white voters still make up the majority in the state, and with them Trump has a 27 point advantage with them at 60/33. If he's able to win the white vote by that much, Clinton doesn't have much chance of running away with the race in Florida. The state will be the same toss up it's accustomed to being.
Florida might go either way this year but there are signs within the poll that are good news for Democrats' long term prospects in the state. Among voters under 45 Clinton leads Trump 57/31, and when you extend that to voters under 65 Clinton keeps a 50/41 advantage. It's only Trump's 59/39 lead with seniors that keeps things in toss up territory overall, but those voters aren't going to do Republicans much good 20 or 30 years down the line.
Floridians say if they had to choose between another four years of Barack Obama or electing Trump as President, they'd keep Obama by a 50/45 spread. One thing that both shows Clinton's difficulty in winning over Democratic leaning voters but also shows that she may have more room for growth in Florida is that among voters who are undecided between her and Trump, 54% of them would rather have Obama as President to only 13% who would go for Trump. Clinton's lead would grow by a couple points if those folks voted their Clinton/Trump preference in line with the party of their Obama/Trump preference. That's also a data point that shows how useful Obama can be to Clinton out on the trail.
62% of voters in the state think Trump needs to release his tax returns, to only 29% who don't think it's necessary for him to do so. 75% of Trump voters in Florida think that if Hillary Clinton wins the election it will only be because it was rigged on her behalf, to just 15% who say it would be because she received more votes.
In the US Senate race Marco Rubio leads Patrick Murphy 40/37, but one thing that's particularly notable is that Libertarian Paul Stanton pulls 10% of the vote at this point. That's a reflection of the choice Floridians face at this point. Rubio is not popular, with only 35% of voters approving of the job he's doing to 45% who disapprove. But Murphy is relatively unknown with 47% of voters having no opinion about him one way or another- he does have a 29/24 favorability rating among those who are familiar with him. These are the conditions that can lead to a third party candidate doing well and right now Stanton is benefiting from that dynamic.