Public Policy Polling

Voters much prefer Obama to Republicans

Raleigh, N.C.- PPP’s latest national poll finds President Obama’s approval ratings narrowly split at 47% positive to 49% negative. His nemeses, Congressional Republicans, do far worse at 24% favorable to 67% unfavorable. Voters trust Obama over Congressional Republicans to deal with the major issues facing the country by 50% to 42%. Congressional Democrats have a better-but-still-bad rating of 40% positive to 52% negative. They lead the GOP on the generic ballot 47%-40%.

Respondents support universal background checks 71%-22%. Democrats (85%), Republicans (57%) and Independents (66%) all support universal background checks. Only 14% say they’d be more likely to support their elected officials if they voted against universal background checks; 51% say a “no” vote would make them less likely to vote for the official. The National Rifle Association has a net-positive approval rating of 43%-41%. Contradictorily, 40% of voters say they’d be less likely to support an NRA-endorsed candidate to 28% who would be more likely to vote for him or her.

Voters still mad about lack of gun legislation

PPP's newest national poll finds on the 6th month anniversary of Newtown that voters are still angry with Congress over the lack of action on expanded background checks. They continue to have overwhelming bipartisan support with 71% of voters favoring them to only 22% who are opposed. That includes an 85/10 spread among Democrats, a 66/23 one with independents, and a 57/35 one with Republicans.

This still has the potential to be a major issue in next year's midterm elections. 51% of voters say they're less likely to support someone who voted against background checks next year to only 14% who say they would consider that a positive. Even among Republicans 30% say they'd be less inclined to vote for someone who opposed expanded background checks to 25% more likely, so this isn't even something that would be a particular salient issue for potential primary challengers.

Fear of the NRA seems to drive much of the opposition to gun legislation, but our polling continues to find its brand just isn't that strong with average voters. It has a narrowly positive favorability rating at 43/41. But 40% of voters say they're less likely to vote for an NRA supported candidate to only 28% who would be more likely to, suggesting there's a greater intensity of feeling among voters with a negative view of the organization.

Other notes from our national poll:

Warner solid for re-election

Raleigh, N.C.- PPP’s latest Virginia poll finds Barack Obama with a 49% positive to 48% negative job approval rating in the Commonwealth. Senator Mark Warner’s job performance gets positive ratings by 53%-27%. Senator Tim Kaine enjoys a 44%-38% positive spread. Bob McDonnell has 44% positive marks and negative ratings of 37%.

Virginians have favorable opinions of Bill Bolling by a margin of 22%-20%. Eric Cantor elicits unfavorable opinions from 40% of voters and favorable views from 26%. Mark Warner leads Bolling 54%-33% in the former’s reelection race. Warner tops Cantor by 53%-34%. Bob McDonnell trails Warner 39%-50%.

Warner safe for reelection

Mark Warner continues to be by far and away Virginia's most popular politician, and doesn't look like he would face much trouble for reelection regardless of who the Republicans put up next year.

53% of Virginians approve of the job Warner is doing to only 27% who disapprove. He's at 58/25 with independents, and has 26% crossover approval from Republicans. He would have an 11 point lead in a hypothetical match up with Bob McDonnell, 50/39. He would also lead Eric Cantor by 19 points at 53/34 and Bill Bolling by 21 points at 54/33. Cantor continues to be unpopular statewide, with only 26% of voters rating him favorably to 40% who have a negative opinion.

Other findings from Virginia:

Dayton leads potential opponents for reelection

Raleigh, N.C.- PPP’s newest Minnesota poll finds Governor Mark Dayton with a 49% approval rating to 47% disapproval and 4% not sure. Potential Republican challenger Kurt Daudt has a 6% approval rating to 15% disapproval. Tom Emmer elicits positive ratings from 20% of voters and negative ones from 37%. David Hann has a 4% favorable rating and 16% unfavorable rating. Scott Honour has a 3% favorability rating to 11% unfavorable. Jeff Johnson has a positive rating of 6% and negative rating of 13%. Julie Rosen has ratings of 9% favorable and 13% unfavorable. Dave Thompson’s favorability rating is 8% and a 13% unfavorable rating. 10% like Kurt Zellers, and 25% have a negative opinion of him.

Governor Dayton would beat Kurt Daudt 51% to 39%.  Dayton leads Tom Emmer 52% to 39%. He has a 51% to 36% advantage over David Hann. Dayton leads Scott Honour 52%-34%. He also has Jeff Johnson by 52%-34%. Voters favor Dayton over Julie Rosen 51%-34%. Dayton leads Dave Thompson 51%-35%. He leads Kurt Zellers 53%-35%.

Dayton numbers drop, but still favored over Republicans

Mark Dayton's poll numbers have taken a slide over the last four months, but he still looks like a pretty big favorite for reelection against the folks considering a run against him.

In January Dayton's approval was a +14 spread at 53/39. It's dropped a net 12 points since then and now 49% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 47% who disapprove. He hasn't lost much support with Democrats but independents have turned against him to some extent, going from 49/40 approval to 39/54. Republicans have also further hardened against him, going from 14/80 to 8/90.

Nevertheless Dayton still has a double digit lead against every Republican we tested against him. Kurt Daudt trails by 12 points at 51/39, Tom Emmer is down 13 at 52/39, David Hann has a 15 point deficit at 51/36, Dave Thompson is 16 back at 51/35, Julie Rosen trails by 17 at 51/34, and Scott Honour, Jeff Johnson, and Kurt Zellers each trail by 18 at 52/34, 52/34, and 53/35 respectively.

There are a couple different ways to process those numbers. We tested Johnson, Rosen, and Zellers against Dayton in January and he was doing an average of 6 points better against that trio then than he is now. At the same time Dayton defeated Emmer by less than a point in 2010 but leads him by 13 now. The best way to sum up is that Dayton is a good deal stronger than he was when first elected, but somewhat weaker than he was at the start of the year.

Other notes from Minnesota:

Americans continue to support background checks

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s latest national survey finds President Barack Obama enjoying a strong advantage over Congressional Republicans. 48% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 49% who disapprove with 3% who are not sure. Just 25% approve of Congressional Republicans. 68% disapprove of them, and 7% are not sure. 38% like Congressional Democrats; 56% don’t, and 12% aren’t sure.

73% of Americans still support universal background checks to 21% who oppose. Just 26% are more likely to support a politician who opposed background checks, and 42% would be less likely to support the candidate. 40% would be less likely to vote for a candidate supported by the NRA to 29% who say an NRA endorsement would strengthen their support.

Hillary leads Dem 2016 field among Massachusetts voters

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest Massachusetts poll finds Hillary Clinton leading among 2016 Democratic primary contenders. Clinton got the support of 55% of Bay Staters, compared to 17% for Joe Biden, 4% for Andrew Cuomo, 1% for Martin O’Malley and negligible support for Brian Schweitzer and Mark Warner. Home-state contenders Elizabeth Warren and Deval Patrick each received 4%.

“It says a lot about the universal desire for Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic candidate in 2016 that she’s over 50% in Massachusetts even with two home state officials in the mix,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

On matters of state politics, Massachusetts voters are somewhat divided. 48% approve of Governor Deval Patrick’s job performance, to 41% who disapprove. This is very close to the 48%-38% spread PPP found last October, suggesting Patrick’s leadership after the Boston bombing hasn’t much changed voters’ perceptions of him. Elizabeth Warren receives a similarly split verdict; 44% approve of her job performance, and 39% disapprove.

Hillary over 50 even in Massachusetts

-More than 50% of Democrats in Massachusetts want Hillary Clinton to be their candidate for President in 2016. In a sense that's unremarkable- it's what we find everywhere we poll. But what makes it remarkable in Massachusetts is that she's over 50% despite the fact that we included 2 Bay State politicians- Governor Deval Patrick and Senator Elizabeth Warren- and she's still over 50%. 55% would like her to be the nominee to 17% for Joe Biden, 4% each for Warren, Patrick, and Andrew Cuomo, and 1% for Martin O'Malley. It's just another data point of how overwhelming the desire is for Hillary in 2016.

-Our first look at Senator Elizabeth Warren's approval numbers finds 44% of voters approving of her to 39% who disapprove. That +5 net approval is pretty much in line with her 8 point margin of victory last fall. Deval Patrick's approval rating is 48/41- the 48% approval is identical to what we found when we last polled on him in October.

-We're coming up on the 9th anniversary of gay marriage being legal in Massachusetts, and only 15% of voters in the state think its being legal has had a negative impact on life there. 25% believe it's had a positive impact and 60% don't think it's had any effect on them one way or the other. Overall 58% of Massachusetts voters support gay marriage to just 32% opposed.

Clinton and Paul are neck and neck in Kentucky

Raleigh, N.C. – Hillary Clinton is standing her ground in a historically red state with a favorability rating of 45% and an equal likelihood of voters choosing her over Rand Paul.

When asked whether they would vote for Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Rand Paul, 45% of voters chose Clinton and 45% of voters chose Rand Paul. 10% of voters were unsure. Hillary Clinton does even better against Marco Rubio with a 6 point lead (46-40).

“Hillary Clinton’s competitiveness in Kentucky shows what a formidable Presidential candidate she would be in 2016,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Democrats haven’t been able to make it a race in Kentucky since her husband was on the ticket almost 20 years ago.”