Public Policy Polling

Obama leads by 4 points in Virginia, 5 points in Ohio

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final polls in Ohio and Virginia find Barack Obama ahead in both states, 52/47 in Ohio and 51/47 in Virginia. PPP has conducted four polls in each of these states over the last three weeks and has found an average lead of 3.75 points for Obama in Ohio and an average advantage of 3.5 points for him in Virginia.

In Ohio Obama's already built up a large lead during the early voting period. He's up 60/39 with those who already cast their ballots. Romney's ahead 51/48 with people who plan to vote on election day but he's going to need a much wider margin than that to take the state.

Obama's winning thanks to leads of 54/44 with women, 86/11 with African Americans, and 61/33 with voters under 30. And although he trails Romney with independents (49/47) and white voters (51/47), he's holding Romney to margins well below what he would need to win those groups.

Obama leads in Ohio and Virginia

PPP's final polls in Ohio and Virginia find Barack Obama ahead in both states, 52/47 in Ohio and 51/47 in Virginia. PPP has conducted four polls in each of these states over the last three weeks and has found an average lead of 3.75 points for Obama in Ohio and an average advantage of 3.5 points for him in Virginia.

In Ohio Obama's already built up a large lead during the early voting period. He's up 60/39 with those who already cast their ballots. Romney's ahead 51/48 with people who plan to vote on election day but he's going to need a much wider margin than that to take the state.

Obama's winning thanks to leads of 54/44 with women, 86/11 with African Americans, and 61/33 with voters under 30. And although he trails Romney with independents (49/47) and white voters (51/47), he's holding Romney to margins well below what he would need to win those groups.

It's a similar story in Virginia. Obama's up 56/43 with women and 92/8 with African Americans and he's holding Romney to a 58/40 advantage with whites, which is below what we've generally been finding for him nationally recently. When you combine Obama's relative strength among white voters with Virginia being one of the more racially diverse states in the country it's the formula for a lead.

Democrats are also well positioned to win the US Senate races in each of these states. Tim Kaine leads George Allen 52/46 in Virginia's open seat race and Sherrod Brown's up 54/44 for reelection against Josh Mandel. It's a similar story in both states. Voters like the Democratic candidates- Brown has a 48/43 approval rating and Kaine has a 50/40 favorability rating. And they don't much care for the Republican contenders- Mandel's favorability is 36/50 and Allen's is 42/48.

There is one piece of good news for Republicans in these polls- Ohio's proposed independent redistricting commission is headed for defeat with 39% of voters planning to support it compared to 49% who are opposed.

Full results here

Obama up 4 in Ohio

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 51-47, up from a 49-48 margin a week ago.

It's starting to look like Obama might have turned the corner with his wins in the second and third debates. When asked who they think won the debates as a whole Obama wins out 45/43, suggesting he really fixed his problems from the first debate with the second two. Obama's approval is on positive ground at 51/48, while Romney's favorability is in negative territory at 47/51. Ohioans trust Obama over Romney on both the economy (52/46) and foreign policy (54/44).

Obama's built up a big lead among early voters in the state. 36% say they've already cast their ballots and they report having voted for Obama by a 63/36 margin. Romney's up 53/45 with those yet to vote.

Obama leads 51-47 in Ohio

PPP's newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 51-47, up from a 49-48 margin a week ago.

It's starting to look like Obama might have turned the corner with his wins in the second and third debates. When asked who they think won the debates as a whole Obama wins out 45/43, suggesting he really fixed his problems from the first debate with the second two. Obama's approval is on positive ground at 51/48, while Romney's favorability is in negative territory at 47/51. Ohioans trust Obama over Romney on both the economy (52/46) and foreign policy (54/44).

Obama's built up a big lead among early voters in the state. 36% say they've already cast their ballots and they report having voted for Obama by a 63/36 margin. Romney's up 53/45 with those yet to vote.

The main shift from a week ago is Democrats further unifying around Obama as the election nears. Last week he led 86/14 with them in the state and now he's pushed that up further to 88/10. Romney continues to lead with independents, 50/46, but that's down a tick from 49/42 last week.

Obama's lead in Ohio comes thanks to big advantages among women (55/43), African Americans (86/12), and young voters (60/36). Romney's winning with men (52/46), whites (52/46), and seniors (54/45) but he would need to win those groups, particularly whites and men, by considerably wider margins if he was going to take the state.

The Senate race really appears to be getting away from Josh Mandel in the closing stages. Sherrod Brown's opened up a 53/42 lead. Brown's winning independents 48/44 even as Obama loses them, and he has 89% of Democrats lined up behind him while only 81% of Republicans are committed to Mandel. Brown's approval is on slightly positive ground at 47/44, while Mandel continues to be very unpopular with only 38% of voters seeing him favorably to 51% with a negative opinion.

Obama lead in Ohio down to 1 point

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 49-48, down from a 51-46 advantage a week ago. Romney's closing the gap thanks to a lead among independents (49/42) and because the Republican base is continuing to become more unified around him with 90% of GOP partisans now saying they'll support him compared to 85% a week ago. Ohio voters think Obama won the debate this week 48-39, but that doesn't seem to extend to more people voting for him.

Obama does have one big advantage in Ohio though- he's already winning the election there. 21% of voters in the state say they've already voted, and they report having supported Obama 66/34. Romney has the 52/44 advantage among those yet to cast their ballots but obviously it's easier to count on votes that are already in the bank.

There are some troubling signs for Obama in the poll though. Ohioans trust Romney more on the economy by a 51/47 margin and trust him more on Libya 49/47. Obama had the advantage on each of those issues in our poll last weekend. Voters do trust Obama over Romney by a 52/44 margin on women's issues, and Obama leads 55/41 with female voters in the poll.

Romney pulls within 1 in Ohio

PPP's newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 49-48, down from a 51-46 advantage a week ago. Romney's closing the gap thanks to a lead among independents (49/42) and because the Republican base is continuing to become more unified around him with 90% of GOP partisans now saying they'll support him compared to 85% a week ago. Ohio voters think Obama won the debate this week 48-39, but that doesn't seem to extend to more people voting for him.

Obama does have one big advantage in Ohio though- he's already winning the election there. 21% of voters in the state say they've already voted, and they report having supported Obama 66/34. Romney has the 52/44 advantage among those yet to cast their ballots but obviously it's easier to count on votes that are already in the bank.

There are some troubling signs for Obama in the poll though. Ohioans trust Romney more on the economy by a 51/47 margin and trust him more on Libya 49/47. Obama had the advantage on each of those issues in our poll last weekend. Voters do trust Obama over Romney by a 52/44 margin on women's issues, and Obama leads 55/41 with female voters in the poll.

Romney's growing momentum in Ohio is built on strong support from men (57/41) and white voters (55/42). Obama continues to have the small overall advantage based on his strength with women, African Americans (91/9), and young voters (52/39).

Other notes from Ohio:

Obama leads by 5 in Ohio

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading 51-46, a 5 point lead not too different from our last poll two weeks ago when he led 49-45.

The key finding on this poll may be how the early voters are breaking out. 19% of people say they've already cast their ballots and they report having voted for Obama by a 76-24 margin. Romney has a 51-45 advantage with those who haven't voted yet, but the numbers make it clear that he already has a lot of ground to make up in the final three weeks before the election.

We've found a major improvement in Mitt Romney's image in most of the states that we've polled since the Presidential debate, but Ohio is an exception. His favorability now is a 45/51 spread, showing no improvement from his 45/49 breakdown two weeks ago. Obama meanwhile has seen a small spike in his approval rating, from 48/49 to 50/48.

Obama leads 51-46 in Ohio

PPP's newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading 51-46, a 5 point lead not too different from our last poll two weeks ago when he led 49-45.

The key finding on this poll may be how the early voters are breaking out. 19% of people say they've already cast their ballots and they report having voted for Obama by a 76-24 margin. Romney has a 51-45 advantage with those who haven't voted yet, but the numbers make it clear that he already has a lot of ground to make up in the final three weeks before the election.

We've found a major improvement in Mitt Romney's image in most of the states that we've polled since the Presidential debate, but Ohio is an exception. His favorability now is a 45/51 spread, showing no improvement from his 45/49 breakdown two weeks ago. Obama meanwhile has seen a small spike in his approval rating, from 48/49 to 50/48.

The Vice Presidential debate may have given Obama at least a small boost as well. 46% of Ohio voters think Joe Biden won it to 37% who believe Paul Ryan was the victor. Biden's advantage is 44/32 with independents. 62% of both Democrats and Republicans say they're 'very excited' to vote this fall, reversing a trend we saw in some post-Presidential debate polling of GOP voters expressing more enthusiasm about the election this year.

One thing clear from our poll: Republican efforts to make a big deal out of Libya aren't succeeding. By a 51/43 margin, voters trust Obama more than Romney on dealing with that issue. Obama also has a 51/46 advantage on dealing with the economy that mirrors his overall lead.

One reason Romney might be struggling to get traction in Ohio even as he surges elsewhere is his record on the auto bailout. Voters in the state support it by a 54/37 margin, including 58/35 with independents. They think Obama would be better than Romney for the auto industry 50/43, and 79% of voters consider it to be an important issue including 42% who say it's 'very important.'

Brown remains ahead of Mandel in Ohio

Raleigh, N.C. – Democrat Sherrod Brown remains ahead of Republican Josh Mandel for Ohio’s US Senate race.  Brown continues to lead Mandel by 8 points (49-41), a survey conducted over the weekend found.  Compared to a survey earlier in September, Brown still leads by 8 points, yet both candidates have gained one point over in their favor over the past few weeks.

“Sherrod Brown is holding steady with a high single digit lead in the Ohio Senate race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He continues to run several points ahead of President Obama so unless there’s a major shift over the last five weeks in the Presidential race he should be in pretty good shape.”

Brown leads Mandel by 8 in Ohio poll

-PPP's newest poll of the Ohio Senate race finds no change in the state of the contest over the last three weeks. Sherrod Brown continues to lead Josh Mandel by 8 points. The spread is 49-41 this time after being 48-40 on the previous survey.

Ohioans have mixed feelings about Brown. 42% approve of the job he's doing while 43% disapprove. But Mandel has proven to be a very unappealing candidate with only 33% of voters seeing him favorably to 48% with a negative opinion. It's going to be interesting to see how much long term damage he's done to his political career after this campaign.

While Mitt Romney leads with independents in the Presidential race in Ohio, Brown has the 41-35 advantage over Mandel with them in the Senate contest. Brown's also winning over 16% of the Republican vote. The most notable crosstab may be Brown's 46-44 advantage with white voters. Obviously any Democrat who wins white voters in Ohio is going to win overall by a healthy margin.

-When we polled Ohio right around this time last year John Kasich was one of the most unpopular Governors in the country with only 37% of voters approving of him to 54% who disapproved. What a difference a year makes. Kasich's seen a huge recovery in his image and now has a 44% approval rating with 40% of voters disapproving of him. He leads a hypothetical Democratic opponent by a 46-41 margin, including 43-32 with independents. And in a rematch with Ted Strickland he would lead 45-42 right now, pretty comparable to his 2010 margin of victory. Throughout 2011 it looked like Kasich had the potential to be a major liability for the top of the ticket in Ohio but now it looks as if he could actually be an asset.