Public Policy Polling

Limbaugh and Birthers

On our Georgia, Ohio, and Tennessee Republican polls in addition to looking at the Presidential race we also polled on some of the issues that have been in the news over the last week: Rush Limbaugh and the reemergence of birtherism.

Our numbers suggest that Rush Limbaugh has seen significant erosion in his popularity with Republican voters over the last week. The last time we polled on him nationally he was at 80/12 with GOPers. But now we find him below 50% in all three of these states: he's at 45/28 in Ohio, 46/29 in Tennessee, and 44/30 in Georgia.

Republican women in particular have become very skeptical about Limbaugh in the states holding tomorrow's 2 most competitive contests. He's at only 39/28 with them in Ohio and 36/30 in Tennessee

Feelings about Limbaugh produce a pretty big divide in who GOP voters are planning to cast their ballots for tomorrow. Among Ohio Republicans who like Limbaugh Rick Santorum leads Mitt Romney 39-35.  With ones who dislike him Romney has the 39-30 advantage.

Sheriff Joe Arpaio's press conference last week put the birther issue back in the news and our polling in these states finds that the birther contingent is still pretty strong within the Republican Party:

Split decision for GA, OH, TN

Raleigh, N.C. – The news is good for Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich and bad for Rick Santorum in PPP's final polls of the three biggest Super Tuesday states.

In Ohio Romney leads with 37% to 36% for Santorum, 15% for Gingrich, and 11% for Ron Paul.

In Tennessee Santorum leads with 34% to 29% for Romney, 27% for Gingrich, and 8% for Paul.

In Georgia Gingrich leads with 47% to 24% for Romney, 19% for Santorum, and 8% for Paul.

Split decision for Super Tuesday

The news is good for Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich and bad for Rick Santorum in PPP's final polls of the three biggest Super Tuesday states.

In Ohio Romney leads with 37% to 36% for Santorum, 15% for Gingrich, and 11% for Ron Paul.

In Tennessee Santorum leads with 34% to 29% for Romney, 27% for Gingrich, and 8% for Paul.

In Georgia Gingrich leads with 47% to 24% for Romney, 19% for Santorum, and 8% for Paul.

A week ago Santorum had a huge lead in Tennessee, a decent sized one in Ohio, and seemed like he had a good chance for second in Georgia. Now he's barely holding on in Tennessee, ever so slightly behind in Ohio, and seems doomed for third in Georgia.

Romney's fortunes have swung the other direction. What was looking like a runner up finish in Ohio is looking more like a win with each passing day. He has an outside chance at pulling off an upset win in Tennessee. And it looks like he'll finish a solid second in Georgia.

The news for Gingrich is good too. It's been expected he would win Georgia, but it looks now like he could even hit the 50% mark. And he's pulled within striking distance of Santorum and Romney in Tennessee.

Here's the breakdown on each individual state:

Americans love Hawaii, dislike California

Raleigh, N.C. – Over the course of four months starting last October, PPP asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

Americans generally have a favorable view of most states.  Only five are in negative territory, led by California (27% favorable and 44% unfavorable), Illinois (19-29), New Jersey (25-32), Mississippi (22-28), and Utah (24-27).  Only seven other states have net-positive ratings in the single digits, and another breaks even (Louisiana).

State favorability poll

Over the course of four months starting last October, we asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

State	+/-	Margin
Hawaii	54-10	44
Colorado	44-9	35
Tennessee	48-14	34
South Dakota	42-8	34
Virginia	45-13	32
Montana	39-7	32
Alaska	46-17	29
Oregon	43-14	29
North Carolina	40-11	29
Pennsylvania	40-11	29
Washington	43-17	26
Kentucky	42-16	26
Iowa	42-17	25
Oklahoma	40-16	24
Vermont	39-15	24
Wisconsin	40-17	23
Wyoming	34-11	23
Florida	43-21	22
North Dakota	33-11	22
Missouri	32-11	21
New Hampshire	37-18	19
Indiana	31-12	19
Idaho	30-11	19
Nebraska	29-11	18
Arizona	39-22	17
Michigan	38-21	17
Maine	32-15	17
Ohio	34-18	16
Delaware	32-16	16
Maryland	31-15	16
South Carolina	34-19	15
New Mexico	30-15	15
Kansas	28-13	15
New York	40-29	11
Georgia	31-20	11
Minnesota	27-17	10
Rhode Island	26-16	10
Texas	40-31	9
Massachusetts	35-27	8
West Virginia	23-15	8
Arkansas	25-20	5
Connecticut	26-22	4
Nevada	28-26	2
Alabama	27-26	1
Louisiana	24-24	0
Utah	24-27	-3
Mississippi	22-28	-6
New Jersey	25-32	-7
Illinois	19-29	-10
California	27-44	-17

NC sees Tea Party in better light than Occupy Wall St.

Raleigh, N.C. – North Carolina is the rare state where the Tea Party is seen more positively than the much newer Occupy Wall Street movement.  Asked to choose between the two, 43% of Tar Heels prefer the Tea Party, and 40% O.W.S.  Independents say they are bigger fans of the Tea Party by a 45-38 margin, and Republicans (11-76) are more supportive of the Tea Party than Democrats of O.W.S. (63-18).  At 50-33, voters under 30 are the only age group with a higher opinion of O.W.S. than the Tea Party.  The left’s movement is preferred over the right’s in the Triangle area (919), but the Tea Party is favored in every other area code.  Overall, 35% support O.W.S.’s goals, and 41% oppose them, compared to 40-47 for the Tea Party.

North Carolinians on their Neighbors

Election days are serious stuff so we thought it would be good to release one of our lighter poll this afternoon- one looking at how North Carolinians feel about their neighboring states.

-The neighbor North Carolinians have the highest opinion of is Virginia. 54% of voters see it favorably to only 14% with a negative opinion. Every demographic group we track has pretty positive feelings toward Virginia.

The neighbor North Carolinians have the lowest opinion of is South Carolina, although it still comes out alright with 43% of voters holding a favorable view of it to 24% with a negative one. The problem for South Carolina is that both Democrats (27/37) and African Americans (28/36) see it unfavorably. It's interesting to note though that the North Carolinians closest to South Carolina- those in Metro Charlotte- give it its best reviews at 52/25.  Folks in the Triangle have the dimmest view at 38/33. Maybe they just need to get to know it better.

Tennessee (48/14) and Georgia (47/17) both fall in between the Virginia and South Carolina numbers.

Of 17 states polled, US voters most divided on TX, least on PA

Raleigh, N.C. – In its latest national poll, in the first of a three-part series, PPP asked American voters how they feel about 17 different states.  Of this first bunch, Texas is the most polarizing—it has both the highest favorability and highest unfavorability rating.  Pennsylvania matches Texas in favor and has much less disfavor, making it the most popular.  The least liked are Illinois and Mississippi, two of only three (along with Utah) which more voters see negatively than positively.

Polling the States

Over the next 3 months PPP will be polling the favorability of all 50 states as part of its national surveys, in order to determine the most popular and least popular ones in the country.  We started off this month with the first 17.  Here's how they stack up from best net favorability to worst:

State	Favorability	Spread
Pennsylvania	40/11	+29
Indiana	31/12	+19
Idaho	30/11	+19
Arizona	39/22	+17
Maryland	31/15	+16
New Mexico	30/15	+15
Georgia	31/20	+11
Minnesota	27/17	+10
Rhode Island	26/16	+10
Texas	40/31	+9
Massachusetts	35/27	+8
Arkansas	25/20	+5
Alabama	27/26	+1
Louisiana	24/24	Even
Utah	24/27	-3
Mississippi	22/28	-6
Illinois	19/29	-10

GOP candidates unpopular at home

We've done polls in Massachusetts and Minnesota over the last couple weeks and found that Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, and Michele Bachmann are all unpopular in their home states. That's par for the course with this GOP Presidential field- we've polled on 9 of the candidates or potential candidates in their home states and only one of them is well liked- Gary Johnson in New Mexico.

That's probably not a good sign for any of these candidates. If the voters who know them best don't care for them, why would others around the country? Certainly you don't have to be popular in your home state to get elected President but it would be a good sign if you were.

Here's how they stack up from most popular to least popular:

Candidate (State)	Favorability	Net
Gary Johnson (New Mexico)	44/32	+12
Newt Gingrich (Georgia)	39/47	-8
Herman Cain (Georgia)	28/36	-8
Rick Perry (Texas)	42/50	-8
Rick Santorum (Pennsylvania)	37/47	-10
Mitt Romney (Massachusetts)	40/52	-12
Tim Pawlenty (Minnesota)	40/53	-13
Sarah Palin (Alaska)	33/58	-25
Michele Bachmann (Minnesota)	33/59	-26