Public Policy Polling

McCaskill up narrowly, Romney and Nixon by wider margins

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final Missouri poll finds Claire McCaskill holding on to a narrow lead over Todd Akin, 48-44. Libertarian Jonathan Dine is polling at 6%. Since our last poll two weeks ago McCaskill's gained 2 points, while Akin's seen a 4 point increase in his support.

Akin's image isn't getting any better. He now has a 29% favorability rating with 56% of voters rating him unfavorably, the worst numbers we've found for him to date. Nevertheless Republicans are starting to unify around him a little bit more as the election approaches- he's gone from getting 74% of his party vote on our last poll to now 79%. He's also pulled even with independents at 46%, although he's still running 19 points behind Mitt Romney on that front.

McCaskill leads by 4, Romney and Nixon up comfortably

PPP's final Missouri poll finds Claire McCaskill holding on to a narrow lead over Todd Akin, 48-44. Libertarian Jonathan Dine is polling at 6%. Since our last poll two weeks ago McCaskill's gained 2 points, while Akin's seen a 4 point increase in his support.

Akin's image isn't getting any better. He now has a 29% favorability rating with 56% of voters rating him unfavorably, the worst numbers we've found for him to date. Nevertheless Republicans are starting to unify around him a little bit more as the election approaches- he's gone from getting 74% of his party vote on our last poll to now 79%. He's also pulled even with independents at 46%, although he's still running 19 points behind Mitt Romney on that front.

Akin's chances at pulling off an upset comeback victory may depend on whether Dine really gets 6% at the polls on Tuesday. His voters support Mitt Romney 70/25 over Barack Obama and Dave Spence 61/34 over Jay Nixon, so clearly he's pulling from folks who otherwise would have voted Republican. The Dine voters hate Akin- only 12% see him favorably to 67% with a negative opinion. But they hate McCaskill too- only 8% approve of the job she's doing to 67% who disapprove. If they stay with Dine, McCaskill wins. If they decide the desire for a Republican Senate outweighs their disgust for Akin, then Akin has a chance.

This race has one of the biggest gender gaps we've seen all year, with McCaskill leading 55/38 among women while Akin has a 52/38 lead with men. McCaskill's lead is largely built on the fact that 91% of Democrats support her while only 79% of Republicans support Akin. Akin is up 51/43 with whites, while McCaskill leads 90/6 with African Americans.

McCaskill lead steady at 6 points

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest poll of the Missouri Senate race finds little change from three weeks ago. Claire McCaskill leads Todd Akin 46-40. The only shift is Libertarian Jonathan Dine's support dropping from 9% to 6% with those folks moving into the undecided column.

There were a lot of reasons to think this race might shift back toward Todd Akin as the furor over his controversial comments in August died down. But his image has actually just continued to get worse as the election approaches. 31% of voters now say they have a favorable opinion of him to 57% with a negative one. It was a 33/55 spread earlier this month.

McCaskill continues to be unpopular with 44% of voters approving of her to 51% who disapprove. Still that's a significant improvement over the last couple months. In late August we found her at a 40/55 spread.

McCaskill continues to lead by 6

PPP's newest poll of the Missouri Senate race finds little change from three weeks ago. Claire McCaskill leads Todd Akin 46-40. The only shift is Libertarian Jonathan Dine's support dropping from 9% to 6% with those folks moving into the undecided column.

There were a lot of reasons to think this race might shift back toward Todd Akin as the furor over his controversial comments in August died down. But his image has actually just continued to get worse as the election approaches. 31% of voters now say they have a favorable opinion of him to 57% with a negative one. It was a 33/55 spread earlier this month.

McCaskill continues to be unpopular with 44% of voters approving of her to 51% who disapprove. Still that's a significant improvement over the last couple months. In late August we found her at a 40/55 spread so her lead over Akin isn't completely a function of him putting his foot in his mouth- McCaskill's become stronger on her own merits as well.

There are still a few reasons to think this race is not over. By a 48/41 margin Missouri voters would like for Republicans to have control of the US Senate. Those numbers suggest that Akin is about 13 points worse than an average GOP candidate would be. Still they also give Akin and his allies a strong message they could try to hammer home in the final two weeks to win over some of the folks who don't care for him but might not dislike him so much they want to keep Democrats in control of the Senate. Also the undecideds in the Senate race support Mitt Romney over Barack Obama 81-13. Maybe they'll leave the Senate race blank in the end but if they end up grudgingly voting for Akin it would make the race basically tied.

We said all these same things when we released our poll three weeks ago though and there hasn't been any movement towards Akin since then so a shift toward him may or may not ultimately materialize.

McCaskill leads by 6

Raleigh, N.C.-- PPP's newest poll of the Missouri Senate race finds Claire McCaskill expanding her lead to 6 points. She's at 46% to 40% for Todd Akin and 9% for Libertarian Jonathan Dine. On our last poll of the race, in late August, McCaskill had led by only a single point.

Todd Akin's image is not seeing any recovery even with six weeks having passed since his controversial comments. 33% of voters see him favorably to 55% with an unfavorable opinion. Those numbers are essentially unchanged from our last poll when he was at 33/56.

One interesting development over the last month in this race is that Claire McCaskill's own popularity has actually improved. 44% of voters approve of her and 49% disapprove, up from a 40/55 spread in late August. The reason for that change is that Democrats are really rallying around her. She now has an 89/8 approval rating within her own party, up from a 73/23 standing last time.

McCaskill takes a 6 point lead

PPP's newest poll of the Missouri Senate race finds Claire McCaskill expanding her lead to 6 points. She's at 46% to 40% for Todd Akin and 9% for Libertarian Jonathan Dine. On our last poll of the race, in late August, McCaskill had led by only a single point.

Todd Akin's image is not seeing any recovery even with six weeks having passed since his controversial comments. 33% of voters see him favorably to 55% with an unfavorable opinion. Those numbers are essentially unchanged from our last poll when he was at 33/56. Republicans still give him pretty high marks. 65% see him favorably to 23% with an unfavorable opinion, suggesting that they actually still like him and aren't just voting for him grudgingly. But his reviews from independents (28/59) and Democrats (7/84) are pretty dreadful.

One interesting development over the last month in this race is that Claire McCaskill's own popularity has actually improved. 44% of voters approve of her and 49% disapprove, up from a 40/55 spread in late August. The reason for that change is that Democrats are really rallying around her. She now has an 89/8 approval rating within her own party, up from a 73/23 standing last time. And that's where the shift in the horse race is coming from as well. She now gets 91% of the Democratic vote, up from 81% on our previous poll. The numbers with Republicans and independents are pretty steady.

Despite McCaskill's lead there's still reason to think this will be a competitive race. By a 50/42 margin voters would rather Republicans had control of the US Senate next year than the Democrats. Right now Akin's only winning 78% of the vote among people who wanted a GOP controlled Senate, compared to the 95% McCaskill's getting with folks who want a Democratic controlled Senate. It's possible as election day nears that more people who want the GOP in charge will suck it up and vote for Akin even though they don't like him.

The other reason to think this race could still end up pretty close is who the 14% of voters either undecided or leaning toward voting for the Libertarian candidate are. They are overwhelmingly conservative voters, who support Mitt Romney over Barack Obama for President by a 66/9 margin. They'd like for the Republicans to be in charge of the Senate by a 65/14 spread. If these folks actually ended up voting for the candidate of the party they want in charge Akin would be up by one point. It's not likely they'll move en masse to Akin in that way, but it is possible and that's why this race is still worth keeping an eye on.

Missouri Senate still looks like a toss up

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest poll of the Missouri Senate race finds that Todd Akin is weathering the storm and the contest remains a toss up. Claire McCaskill leads 45-44, just a small change from our poll last week which found Akin ahead by a 44-43 margin.

53% of voters say that they accept Akin's apology for his comments last week to 40% who do not. For most Missourians Akin's words weren't a permanent deal breaker. Although Democrats are not ready to forgive him, 77% of Republicans say they accept his apology to only 18% who do not.

Only 37% of voters now say they think Akin should withdraw from the race to 54% who believe he should not. There's a bipartisan consensus that he should stay in- 57% of independents, 53% of Democrats, and 52% of Republicans think he should continue running. There's clearly a disconnect on Akin's candidacy between GOP leaders in Washington DC and actual GOP voters back in Missouri.

Still a toss up in Missouri

PPP's newest poll of the Missouri Senate race finds that Todd Akin is weathering the storm and the contest remains a toss up. Claire McCaskill leads 45-44, just a small change from our poll last week which found Akin ahead by a 44-43 margin.

A few key findings related to Akin's candidacy:

-53% of voters say that they accept Akin's apology for his comments last week to 40% who do not. For most Missourians Akin's words weren't a permanent deal breaker. Although Democrats are not ready to forgive him, 77% of Republicans say they accept his apology to only 18% who do not.

-Only 37% of voters now say they think Akin should withdraw from the race to 54% who believe he should not. There's a bipartisan consensus that he should stay in- 57% of independents, 53% of Democrats, and 52% of Republicans think he should continue running. There's clearly a disconnect on Akin's candidacy between GOP leaders in Washington DC and actual GOP voters back in Missouri.

-Akin's favorability numbers are still poor with 33% of voters rating him favorably to 56% with a negative opinion. But that's up a net 11 points from our survey last Monday when it came down at 24/58. A lot of voters have already moved on from being disgusted with him over his comments.

Akin still leads McCaskill by a point

Raleigh, N.C. – Missouri voters strongly disagree with the comments Todd Akin made about abortion over the weekend, but it hasn't moved the numbers a whole lot in the Senate race. Akin leads Claire McCaskill by a single point, 44-43. That's basically identical to our last poll of the contest in late May, which found Akin ahead by a 45-44 spread.

It's not that Missouri voters are ok with or supportive of Akin's comments. 75% of voters, including even 64% of Republicans, say they were inappropriate to only 9% who consider them to have been appropriate. 79% of voters say they disagree with what Akin said, including 65% who express 'strong' disagreement with him. 51% of GOP voters say they strongly disagree with him.

Akin 44 McCaskill 43

Missouri voters strongly disagree with the comments Todd Akin made about abortion over the weekend, but it hasn't moved the numbers a whole lot in the Senate race. Akin leads Claire McCaskill by a single point, 44-43. That's basically identical to our last poll of the contest in late May, which found Akin ahead by a 45-44 spread.

It's not that Missouri voters are ok with or supportive of Akin's comments. 75% of voters, including even 64% of Republicans, say they were inappropriate to only 9% who consider them to have been appropriate. 79% of voters say they disagree with what Akin said, including 65% who express 'strong' disagreement with him. 51% of GOP voters say they strongly disagree with him.

All of that is taking a toll on Akin's image. Only 24% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 58% with a negative one. He's pretty universally disliked by Democrats (3/85) and independents (21/61) and even with Republicans (43/34) he's on only narrowly positive ground.

But for all of that the overall numbers in the race have moved very little. When we polled in May McCaskill was getting only 8% of the Republican vote, and even with the controversy around Akin she's only pushed up to 10% of it. GOP voters dislike McCaskill so much they're not going to vote for her no matter what their nominee does. Independent voters haven't moved at all either. In May they supported Akin 45-41, and even though they don't like him on tonight's poll we still found him leading 45-41 with them.