Polls

Claire McCaskill leads all Republicans but barely

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results Mccaskill_leads_gop_0311 Raleigh, N.C. – Senator Claire McCaskill’s standing with Missouri voters has improved by a hair on the margin since PPP’s last look at the state in November, but with voters divided on her job performance, she is still no better than even-money to be re-elected next fall.

The shape of the race has changed.  Jim Talent, whom McCaskill narrowly ousted in the strong Democratic year of 2006, has decided against a rematch since the previous survey was conducted, and Lt. Governor Peter Kinder has announced a challenge to Governor Jay Nixon instead.  So the identity of McCaskill’s eventual opponent is less clear, but even the least-known of them trails by single digits.

McCaskill tops former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman, 45-42. Steelman was the only candidate tested in both polls; she was down only 45-44 in the first, the same margin Rep. Todd Akin now has.  Attorney Ed Martin lags, 46-40.  And former state GOP chairwoman Ann Wagner is down by the largest margin, 45-36.  Steelman and Martin are the only announced candidates so far.  McCaskill has her base pretty locked up, getting 88-89% of Democrats in each matchup, and losing only 3-7% to the Republican candidates.  But a lot of Republicans and independents are still undecided, and the latter split almost evenly between McCaskill and the GOP contenders.

Right now, the contest is a measure of name recognition, with McCaskill showing a ceiling of 45-46% regardless of her opponent, and those opponents’ levels of support varying by voters’ familiarity with them.  Akin and Steelman are the best known, but still a non-entity to 56% of voters.  Two-thirds have no opinion of Martin, and almost three-quarters cannot express their views about Wagner.  McCaskill’s job approval rating is now at 46%, up from 43% last time, but her disapproval is also up to 45% from 44%.  Though McCaskill is not well liked, all her potential opponents have net negative favorability margins except Steelman, who breaks even.

“This continues to look like a 50/50 race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “Missouri had a rare lopsided Senate election last year but in 2012 it looks like it will return to being one of the closest states in the country.”

PPP surveyed 612 Missouri voters from March 3rd to 6th.  The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.0%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Claire McCaskill’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Todd Akin?
Favorable ………….. 20%
Unfavorable……….. 24%
Not sure ……………. 55%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ed Martin?
Favorable ………….. 12%
Unfavorable……….. 22%
Not sure ……………. 66%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Steelman?
Favorable ………….. 22%
Unfavorable……….. 22%
Not sure ……………. 56%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ann Wagner?
Favorable ………….. 8%
Unfavorable……….. 18%
Not sure ……………. 74%

Q6 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican
Todd Akin, who would you vote for?
Claire McCaskill ………………………………………. 45%
Todd Akin……………………………………………….. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%

Q7 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican Ed
Martin, who would you vote for?
Claire McCaskill ………………………………………. 46%
Ed Martin ……………………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%

Q8 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican
Sarah Steelman, who would you vote for?
Claire McCaskill ………………………………………. 45%
Sarah Steelman ………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%

Q9 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican
Ann Wagner, who would you vote for?
Claire McCaskill ………………………………………. 45%
Ann Wagner……………………………………………. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%

Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 22%

Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%

Q13 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%

Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%

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