Public Policy Polling

Support for gay marriage in Pennsylvania on the rise

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's found a net 14 point increase in support for gay marriage in Pennsylvania over the last year and a half. Voters in the state are now almost evenly divided on the issue with 45% thinking it should be legal and 47% believing it should continue to be illegal. In November of 2011 we found only 36% support and 52% opposition for gay marriage among Keystone State voters. Seniors continue to be opposed to gay marriage by a 28/62 margin, but voters under 45 support it 58/35, suggesting that it's only a matter of time.

Civil unions for same sex couples are pretty uncontroversial now with voters in the state. 74% support either gay marriage or civil unions with only 24% of voters opposed to any sort of legal recognition for gay couples. Even among Republicans there's 68% support for one or the other.

Pennsylvania Miscellany

-PPP's found a net 14 point increase in support for gay marriage in Pennsylvania over the last year and a half. Voters in the state are now almost evenly divided on the issue with 45% thinking it should be legal and 47% believing it should continue to be illegal. In November of 2011 we found only 36% support and 52% opposition for gay marriage among Keystone State voters. Seniors continue to be opposed to gay marriage by a 28/62 margin, but voters under 45 support it 58/35, suggesting that it's only a matter of time.

Civil unions for same sex couples are pretty uncontroversial now with voters in the state. 74% support either gay marriage or civil unions with only 24% of voters opposed to any sort of legal recognition for gay couples. Even among Republicans there's 68% support for one or the other.

-Pennsylvanians support an assault weapons ban by a 52/39 margin. It has majority support from independents, and even 36% of Republicans support it. Voters in the state favor stronger gun laws in general by a 53/41 margin, and by a 42/43 margin have an unfavorable opinion of the NRA.

-Bob Casey is Pennsylvania's most popular politician with a net +9 approval rating at 45/36. That makes him a good deal more well liked than junior colleague Pat Toomey who's at -3 with 34% of voters approving of him and 37% disapproving. Voters in the state are evenly divided in their feelings about Barack Obama- 48% approve and 48% disapprove.

Obama leads by 3 in Wisconsin, 6 in Pennsylvania

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final polls of the 2012 election cycle in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin find Barack Obama favored to win both states, although by margins a good deal closer than he won them by in 2008. In Pennsylvania Obama leads 52-46, while in Wisconsin his advantage is 51-48.

The same basic formula that pushed Obama to victory in 2008 is what has him favored to win both of these states again. In Pennsylvania he's up big with women (57/42), African Americans (90/8), and voters under 30 (66/34). It's a similar story in Wisconsin where he's up 54/44 with women, 63/32 with non-white voters, and 55/45 with young people. Obama also has an advantage in both states with independent voters- it's 49/45 in Pennsylvania and 57/40 in Wisconsin.

Obama leads in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin

PPP's final polls of the 2012 election cycle in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin find Barack Obama favored to win both states, although by margins a good deal closer than he won them by in 2008. In Pennsylvania Obama leads 52-46, while in Wisconsin his advantage is 51-48.

The same basic formula that pushed Obama to victory in 2008 is what has him favored to win both of these states again. In Pennsylvania he's up big with women (57/42), African Americans (90/8), and voters under 30 (66/34). It's a similar story in Wisconsin where he's up 54/44 with women, 63/32 with non-white voters, and 55/45 with young people. Obama also has an advantage in both states with independent voters- it's 49/45 in Pennsylvania and 57/40 in Wisconsin.

Democrats are also favored to hold on to the Senate seats in both of these states. In Wisconsin's open contest Tammy Baldwin leads Republican foe Tommy Thompson 51-48, thanks to a 55/41 advantage with independents. Voters aren't particularly in love with either candidate. Thompson has a 44/48 favorability rating and Baldwin's is 44/50. But it looks like the Democratic lean of the state might put her over the top.

In Pennsylvania incumbent Bob Casey leads challenger Tom Smith 52-44, aided by 15% crossover support from Republicans and a 49/41 advantage with independents. Casey's approval is back in positive territory at 42/41 after being in the red on several recent polls and despite the millions Smith has put into the race voters still aren't that enamored with him- he has a 38% favorability rating with 40% of voters giving him negative marks.

Full results here

Obama and Casey up comfortably in Pennsylvania

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest Pennsylvania poll finds Barack Obama's lead in the state declining by 5 points over the last month, but he still has a 7 point advantage at 51-44.  He led 52-40 in mid-September.

Pennsylvania voters narrowly approve of the job Obama is doing, with 49% giving him good marks to 47% who disapprove. Romney continues to have trouble connecting with voters in the Keystone State, as 44% express a favorable opinion of him to 49% who see him negatively.

Obama is competitive with white voters, trailing Romney only 49/46. Add in Obama's 86/7 lead with African Americans and it gives him his overall advantage. He also leads with both women (53/42) and men (48/46). Finally he has a 51/41 advantage with independents.

Obama and Casey lead in Pennsylvania

PPP's newest Pennsylvania poll finds Barack Obama's lead in the state declining by 5 points over the last month, but he still has a 7 point advantage at 51-44.  He led 52-40 in mid-September.

Pennsylvania voters narrowly approve of the job Obama is doing, with 49% giving him good marks to 47% who disapprove. Romney continues to have trouble connecting with voters in the Keystone State, as 44% express a favorable opinion of him to 49% who see him negatively.

Here are some of the keys for Obama in Pennsylvania:

-He's competitive with white voters, trailing Romney only 49/46. Add in Obama's 86/7 lead with African Americans and it gives him his overall advantage.

-Obama leads with both women (53/42) and men (48/46).

-Obama has a 51/41 advantage with independents.

The Pennsylvania Senate race isn't looking terribly competitive. Bob Casey leads Republican challenger Tom Smith 50-39, an 11 point lead that's pretty similar to the 10 point one we found for Casey at 46-36 in July. Casey has a 44-36 advantage with independents and he continues to enjoy greater than normal crossover support for a Democrat, taking 17% of the GOP vote. He's winning white voters 47-43 and is at 50% with both women (50-35) and men (50-43).

Casey maintains lead for re-election

Raleigh, N.C. -- Pennsylvania’s senior Senator Bob Casey has a healthy 10 point advantage over his opponent, businessman Tom Smith. Even following PPP’s last poll in the state which gave him a larger 16 point lead, these results are good news for Casey considering approval numbers that have been, and remain, tepid at best.

That mark is basically unchanged from the May poll, and is even with 36% approving and 36% disapproving of the Senator’s job performance. This comes both from lower than optimal support among Democrats, who only approve of Casey by a margin of 53% to 23%, and a decidedly chilly figure from Independents, with whom Casey’s net rating is -7.

Pennsylvania Miscellany

-PPP's newest poll of Pennsylvania finds there's still a fair amount of support for Joe Paterno in the state, although his image has taken somewhat of a hit. 45% of voters in the state see him favorably to 37% with a negative opinion. That represents a net 15 point decline from a November survey when he was at +23 (51/28). By a 48/35 margin respondents expressed opposition to removing his statue from the Penn State campus, something that ended up happening in the middle of the poll's Saturday-Monday field period.

50% of voters in the state now express a favorable opinion of the university as a whole to 31% who see it negatively. That's down from 61/25 the last time we asked about it. Finally, 94% of Pennsylvanians have a negative view of Jerry Sandusky to 2% with a positive one. Those represent the worst poll numbers we've ever found for any public figure.

-Bob Casey remains favored in the Pennsylvania Senate race, but it's tightened over the couple months since PPP last polled it. He's up 46-36 on Republican challenger Tom Smith, compared to 49-33 on our May poll. Casey continues to have pretty so so approval numbers with an equal 36% giving him good marks and disapproving of him. That's largely due to a lack of enthusiasm for him among Democrats but most of his party is committed to voting for him in the fall whether it loves him or not and when you combine that with a 42/32 advantage among independents and a decent 14% crossover support from Republicans it gives him his 10 point lead.

It appears likely Smith will at least improve on Rick Santorum's performance against Casey in 2006, which probably says more about Santorum than anything else.

PA blacks shift quickly in favor of gay marriage

Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama’s announcement that he supports same-sex marriage is rapidly shifting the opinions of black voters around the country; PPP has found this already in North Carolina and nationally.  Nearly all of the slight movement in Pennsylvania toward acceptance of same-sex marriage since PPP last polled on the issue in November is with black voters.  Whereas only 36% of all Pennsylvanians thought gay marriage should be legal and 52% illegal last fall, now that is a 39-48 spread.  That is because African Americans have moved from being against it by a strong margin (34-52) to being split, 42-41 for it. 

“We’ve now found in both North Carolina and Pennsylvania that black voters have moved more toward support of gay marriage in the wake of Barack Obama’s announcement,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The media’s been asking the wrong question- the big issue isn’t how Obama’s stance will affect his reelection hopes. It’s how Obama’s stance will move public opinion on gay marriage.”

Casey looks safe

-Bob Casey continues to look like an overwhelming favorite for reelection in the Pennsylvania Senate race. He's at 49% to 33% for Tom Smith, numbers that have changed little from March when Casey was ahead 49-31. Smith has not received much of a bounce from receiving the primary.

Pennsylvania has a Democratic registration advantage to begin with and on top of that Casey's winning 22% of the Republican vote and has a 42-24 lead with independents. Casey continues to post unimpressive approval ratings, 39/38 this time around, but that's largely because only 56% of Democrats give him good marks. Approve of him or not, 76% of Democrats still plan to vote for him.

Smith's name recognition has increased from 25% to 45% over the last couple months. But that hasn't necessarily been a good thing for him- only 16% of voters see him favorably to 29% who have a negative opinion.

-Democrats are starting out with an advantage in the race for Attorney General. Kathleen Kane leads Republican opponent David Freed 42-33. The contests for Auditor General and Treasurer produce the exact same result with the Democrat ahead 35-34 in each of them and a lot of voters still undecided.