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July 08, 2015


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As a conservative, I have found your polls to be the most accurate over the last few years. You guys nailed the 2012 election and did incredibly well on the 2014 election as well.

Here you have Scott Walker and Mike Huckabee leading Clinton by 4, yet CNN had a national poll showing her leading every major GOP candidate by double digits.

To me, it suggests the CNN poll is a outlier / inaccurate, because there is no way Scott Walker leads Hillary by 4 in NC, yet trails her nationally by 15 points plus.

Any thoughts?


Thanks for the poll. The numbers that caught my eye: Sanders loses to Scott Walker by 8, and Clinton loses the same matchup by 4. Not great for either, but also not so bad against the strongest performing Republican in a red-leaning state. Among the more interesting tidbits: Since PPP's last North Carolina poll in late May, Sanders has gained two points in a head-to-head contest with Walker, while Clinton has lost four. And consider this: In the Sanders-Walker matchup, 23% of 2012 Obama voters are undecided, while only 15% of 2012 Romney voters remain undecided. In the Clinton-Walker matchup, there are fewer undecided voters, and among those the Romney voters outnumber Obama voters 3 to 1. This suggests Sanders has more room to grow in a general election than Clinton.

Clinton has a -16% net favorability among North Carolina voters, while Sanders has the highest favorability rating of all the Democrats running at -3%. Sanders' favorability has improved from -7 in the May poll, while Clinton's has dropped a point from -15. Perhaps most surprisingly, given Sanders' left-wing image, Sanders scores much stronger favorability numbers than Clinton among Independents and Republicans.


Your poll has a number of flaws, the biggest by far is:

1. Methodological. Party affiliation is self assessed, rather than determined through a series of questions, which is more accurate.
I know that it might take longer, but if you design 30 questions about the issues, you get a more accurate finding of whether people are progressive or conservative.
You should let people agree or disagree with 30 statements on a 5-point scale, For example:
"Rich people should pay a higher percentage of taxes than poor people"
agree strongly, agree somewhat, middle, agree somewhat, disagree strongly

If you do that, it might avoid bizarre results like Clinton trailing Walker by only FOUR points in state that self describes as 88 (EIGHTY EIGHT!!!) percent conservative.

2. The huge difference in internet vs phone results, page 62. Maybe not an outright flaw, but it is bizarre:
Hillary Clinton trails 41/52 with phone respondents, but LEADS him 52/25 with internet respondents???? Then how do you weigh phone v internet?

3. Your wording in the summary:
"Despite his success, Trump still trails Hillary Clinton among all voters, 47/44. Other Republican candidates have surpassed Clinton since the last PPP poll in North Carolina on June 4th."
It's unclear whether your talking about NC voters or all Americans. I'd assume just NC voters, but your wording made it unclear.

The last one is connected to the first flaw, obviously.


If we're trying to ferret out people's likely voting habits, why don't we ask about them? Instead of simply asking people to self-identify, it's arguably better to ask them what they voted in the last presidential, governor, senatorial and congress elections. Last 4 presidentials and senatorial, last 10 congressionals. Also ask if the candidate is conservative or a liberal, WITH NO OPTION FOR MODERATE otherwise you will get moderate bias. (everybody is in the middle class if you ask them)

I know for myself, if you asked me to self-identify with a political party, I'd decline to. If you asked me which party I historically have voted for, and am more likely to vote for in the future, I'd be identified as 99% Democrat.


another good way to suss out party affiliation is to ask them what they voted before. I suggest the previous 4 presidentials, senate and previous 10 or 8 congressionals.

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