Polls

Republicans hold slim leads in Colorado, Alaska Senate races

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s final Colorado and Alaska polls find the Republican candidates for the Senate with small leads, and both states have very tight races for Governor as well.

In Colorado, Cory Gardner leads Mark Udall 48/45 in the full field of candidates and 50/47 in a straight head to head contest. Udall is running up the score with Hispanics- he’s ahead 64/35- but he’s also down 53/40 with white voters. He is also ahead 46/37 with independents, but 15% of Democrats say they’re going to cross over and vote for Gardner compared to just 9% of Republicans who say they’re going to support Udall.

The Governor’s race could not be much closer. John Hickenlooper and Bob Beauprez are both at 46% and even when you take the results out to decimal places they’re still tied at 45.9%. The slightest hint of an advantage for Beauprez might come in the numbers in a head to head rather than the full field- there Beauprez leads 49/48 because supporters of the third party candidates say they’d prefer him over Hickenlooper.

The Alaska Senate race is even tighter than the one in Colorado, with Dan Sullivan leading Mark Begich just 46/45 with the full field and 47/46 in a head to head contest. Begich leads 50/36 with independents and has 91% of the Democratic vote behind him to just 81% of Republicans who are for Sullivan. The picture in this race is pretty steady- Sullivan led by 2 points on our last poll in September. Begich has a very strong ground game and it could be enough to put him over the top.

The Alaska Governor’s race is similarly tight with independent Bill Walker holding a 1 point lead over Republican incumbent Sean Parnell, 46/45. Walker held a 1 point lead in September as well. Voters are very closely divided on Parnell’s job performance with 44% approving of him to 45% who disapprove.  

The contest that’s seen a lot of movement in Alaska since September is the House race. Don Young now leads by just 6 points at 47/41, after having previously held a 15 point advantage at 48/33. His various incidents in the last month seem to be taking a toll.

PPP surveyed 739 likely voters in Colorado and 1,052 likely voters in Alaska on November 1st and 2nd. The margins of error for the surveys are +/-3.6% and +/- 3.0% respectively. 80% of interviews for each poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here (AK) and here (CO).

Colorado Toplines

Q1 The candidates for Governor this fall are
Democrat John Hickenlooper, Republican Bob
Beauprez, Green Party candidate Harry
Hempy, Libertarian Matthew Hess, unaffiliated
candidate Mike Dunafon, and unaffiliated
candidate Paul Noel Fiorino. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
John Hickenlooper …………………………………… 46%
Bob Beauprez …………………………………………. 46%
Harry Hempy…………………………………………… 2%
Matthew Hess …………………………………………. 2%
Mike Dunafon………………………………………….. 1%
Paul Noel Fiorino …………………………………….. 0%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%

Q2 Combined horse race, with third-party
supporters and undecideds asked if they lean
Hickenlooper or Beauprez
John Hickenlooper …………………………………… 48%
Bob Beauprez …………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q3 The candidates for U.S. Senate this fall are
Democrat Mark Udall, Republican Cory
Gardner, Libertarian Gaylon Kent, Unity Party
of Colorado candidate Bill Hammons,
unaffiliated candidate Raul Acosta, and
unaffiliated candidate Steve Shogan. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Mark Udall………………………………………………. 45%
Cory Gardner ………………………………………….. 48%
Gaylon Kent ……………………………………………. 2%
Bill Hammons………………………………………….. 0%
Raul Acosta…………………………………………….. 1%
Steve Shogan …………………………………………. 0%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%

Q4 Combined horse race, with third-party
supporters and undecideds asked if they lean
Udall or Gardner
Mark Udall………………………………………………. 47%
Cory Gardner ………………………………………….. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q5 The candidates for Secretary of State are
Democrat Joe Neguse, Republican Wayne
Williams, American Constitution Party
candidate Amanda Campbell, and Libertarian
Dave Schambach. If the election was today,
who would you vote for?
Joe Neguse…………………………………………….. 37%
Wayne Williams ………………………………………. 43%
Amanda Campbell …………………………………… 5%
Dave Schambach ……………………………………. 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%

Q6 The candidates for State Treasurer are
Democrat Betsy Markey, Republican Walker
Stapleton, and Libertarian David Jurist. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Betsy Markey ………………………………………….. 41%
Walker Stapleton……………………………………… 47%
David Jurist …………………………………………….. 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%

Q7 The candidates for Attorney General are
Democrat Don Quick, Republican Cynthia
Coffman, and Libertarian David Williams. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Don Quick………………………………………………. 37%
Cynthia Coffman ……………………………………… 50%
David Williams ………………………………………… 5%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q8 Amendment 67, which will be on the ballot this
fall, reads, “Shall there be an amendment to
the Colorado constitution protecting pregnant
women and unborn children by defining
‘person’ and ‘child’ in the Colorado criminal
code and the Colorado Wrongful Death Act to
include unborn human beings?” If the election
was today, would you vote ‘yes’ or ‘no’ on
Amendment 67?
Yes………………………………………………………… 38%
No …………………………………………………………. 56%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%

Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 35%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Hickenlooper’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob Beauprez?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q12 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Udall’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Cory Gardner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q14 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Michael Bennet’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 30%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%

Q15 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 5%

Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 25%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%

Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 24%

Q19 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2. If
other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 13%
White …………………………………………………….. 80%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%

Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older
than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 11%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%

Q21 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

Alaska Toplines

Q1 The candidates for U.S. Senate are Democrat
Mark Begich, Republican Dan Sullivan,
Libertarian Mark Fish, and non-affiliated
candidate Ted Gianoutsos. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Mark Begich……………………………………………. 45%
Dan Sullivan……………………………………………. 46%
Mark Fish……………………………………………….. 2%
Ted Gianoutsos……………………………………….. 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%

Q2 Combined horse race, with third-party
supporters and undecideds asked if they lean
Begich or Sullivan
Mark Begich……………………………………………. 46%
Dan Sullivan……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q3 The candidates for Governor this fall are
Republican Sean Parnell, non-affiliated
candidate Bill Walker, Libertarian Carolyn Clift,
and Alaska Constitution Party Candidate J.R.
Myers. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Sean Parnell …………………………………………… 45%
Bill Walker………………………………………………. 46%
Carolyn Clift ……………………………………………. 2%
J.R. Myers………………………………………………. 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%

Q4 Combined horse race, with third-party
supporters and undecideds asked if they lean
Parnell or Walker
Sean Parnell …………………………………………… 47%
Bill Walker………………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q5 The candidates for U.S. House this fall are
Republican Don Young, Democrat Forrest
Dunbar, and Libertarian Jim McDermott. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Don Young ……………………………………………… 47%
Forrest Dunbar………………………………………… 41%
Jim McDermott………………………………………… 6%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%

Q6 Ballot Measure 3 is an act to increase Alaska’s
minimum wage. It would raise Alaska’s
minimum wage from $7.75 per hour to $8.75
per hour in 2015 and $9.75 per hour in 2016.
After that, the minimum wage would be
adjusted each year for inflation, with Alaska’s
minimum wage always remaining one dollar
over the federal minimum. If the election was
today, would you vote ‘yes’ or ‘no’ on this
measure?
Yes………………………………………………………… 62%
No …………………………………………………………. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%

Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 34%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Begich’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Sullivan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Sean Parnell’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Walker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%

Q12 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Lisa
Murkowski’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q13 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 9%

Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%

Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%

Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 20%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 46%

Q17 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2,
White …………………………………………………….. 77%
Other……………………………………………………… 23%

Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older
than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 21%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 50%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 19%

Q19 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

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