Polls

GOP likely to win Arkansas, Kentucky Senate Races; Louisiana Still Close

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s final polls in Arkansas and Kentucky find Republicans in a strong position to win the Senate seats in those states on Tuesday, but the Louisiana Senate race still has the potential to be pretty competitive.

In Kentucky Mitch McConnell leads Alison Lundergan Grimes 50/42, with Libertarian David Patterson getting 3%. In a head to head match up, McConnell’s lead is 53/44. McConnell remains unpopular, with only 39% of voters approving of him to 50% who disapprove. But his campaign succeeded in making Grimes just as unpopular- her 39/49 favorability rating is nearly identical to his approval rating. For the millions and millions of dollars spent on this race it’s ended up right back around where it started- when we first polled it in December of 2012 McConnell led Grimes by 7 and in this final poll he leads by 8.

In Arkansas, we find Republicans leading the races for Governor and the Senate by 8-10 points. Tom Cotton is up 49/41 on Mark Pryor, and Asa Hutchinson is up 51/41 on Mike Ross. At the end of the day Barack Obama’s unpopularity in the state may be too much for the Democratic candidates to overcome- only 29% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 62% who disapprove. The Republican candidates have proven to be relatively strong in their own right though. Hutchinson has a 49/35 favorability rating and Cotton’s is 48/40, better than we’re seeing for most candidates across the country this year.

In Louisiana it looks like Mary Landrieu will finish first in Tuesday’s election. She’s polling at 43% to 35% for Bill Cassidy, 15% for Rob Maness, and just 1% for ‘someone else.’ We find that a head to head between Landrieu and Cassidy would be pretty close at this point, with Cassidy ahead just 48/47. Whether a runoff election would really be that close depends on whether Landrieu can get Democratic leaning voters, especially African Americans and young people, to come back out and vote again in December.

PPP surveyed 1,003 likely voters in Louisiana, 1,503 likely voters in Kentucky, and 1,092 likely voters in Arkansas from October 30th to November 1st. The margins of error for the surveys are +/-3.1%, +/-2.5%, and +/-3.0% respectively. 80% of interviews for each poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here (AR), here (KY), and here (LA).

Arkansas Toplines

Q1 The candidates for U.S. Senate this fall are
Democrat Mark Pryor, Republican Tom Cotton,
Green Party candidate Mark Swaney, and
Libertarian Nathan LaFrance. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
Mark Pryor ……………………………………………… 41%
Tom Cotton …………………………………………….. 49%
Mark Swaney ………………………………………….. 3%
Nathan LaFrance …………………………………….. 1%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%

Q2 Combined horse race, with third-party
supporters and undecideds asked if they lean
Pryor or Cotton
Mark Pryor ……………………………………………… 45%
Tom Cotton …………………………………………….. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q3 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat Mike Ross, Republican Asa
Hutchinson, Green Party candidate J. Joshua
Drake, and Libertarian Frank Gilbert, who
would you vote for?
Mike Ross………………………………………………. 41%
Asa Hutchinson……………………………………….. 51%
J. Joshua Drake………………………………………. 2%
Frank Gilbert …………………………………………… 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%

Q4 Combined horse race, with third-party
supporters and undecideds asked if they lean
Ross or Hutchinson
Mike Ross………………………………………………. 44%
Asa Hutchinson……………………………………….. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q5 The candidates for Lieutenant Governor are
Democrat John Burkhalter, Republican Tim
Griffin, and Libertarian Christopher Olson. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
John Burkhalter……………………………………….. 38%
Tim Griffin ………………………………………………. 46%
Christopher Olson……………………………………. 6%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%

Q6 The candidates for Secretary of State are
Democrat Susan Inman, Republican Mark
Martin, and Libertarian Jacob Holloway. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Susan Inman…………………………………………… 35%
Mark Martin…………………………………………….. 47%
Jacob Holloway……………………………………….. 6%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%

Q7 The candidates for Attorney General are
Democrat Nate Steel, Republican Leslie
Rutledge, and Libertarian Aaron Cash. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Nate Steel ………………………………………………. 40%
Leslie Rutledge ……………………………………….. 44%
Aaron Cash…………………………………………….. 7%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%

Q8 The candidates for State Auditor are Democrat
Regina Stewart Hampton, Republican Andrea
Lea, and Libertarian Brian Leach. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
Regina Stewart Hampton………………………….. 36%
Andrea Lea …………………………………………….. 44%
Brian Leach…………………………………………….. 8%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%

Q9 The candidates for State Treasurer are
Democrat Karen Garcia, Republican Dennis
Milligan, and Libertarian Chris Hayes. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Karen Garcia…………………………………………… 37%
Dennis Milligan ……………………………………….. 45%
Chris Hayes ……………………………………………. 10%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q10 The candidates for State Land Commissioner
are Democrat Mark Robertson, Republican
John Thurston, and Libertarian Elvis Presley. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Mark Robertson ………………………………………. 36%
John Thurston…………………………………………. 45%
Elvis Presley …………………………………………… 9%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q11 The Arkansas Minimum Wage Initiative would
increase the state’s minimum wage from $6.25
to $7.50 per hour in 2015, $8 an hour in 2016,
and $8.50 hour in 2017. If the election was
today, would you vote for or against the
Arkansas Minimum Wage Initiative?
For ………………………………………………………… 65%
Against…………………………………………………… 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%

Q12 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 29%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q13 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Pryor’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 39%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Cotton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q15 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Mike Beebe’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 64%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Ross?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q17 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Asa Hutchinson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q18 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John
Boozman’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%

Q19 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 39%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 53%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 8%

Q20 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 12%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 23%

Q21 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q22 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 29%

Q23 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 81%
African-American …………………………………….. 14%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q24 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older
than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 18%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%

Q25 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

Kentucky Toplines

Q1 The candidates for U.S. Senate are Republican
Mitch McConnell, Democrat Alison Lundergan
Grimes, and Libertarian David Patterson. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Mitch McConnell ……………………………………… 50%
Alison Lundergan Grimes …………………………. 42%
David Patterson ………………………………………. 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%

Q2 Combined horse race, with Patterson
supporters and undecideds asked if they lean
McConnell or Grimes
Mitch McConnell ……………………………………… 53%
Alison Lundergan Grimes …………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 30%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mitch
McConnell’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 39%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alison Lundergan Grimes?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Rand
Paul’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Steve Beshear’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q8 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 53%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 7%

Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 28%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%

Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 52%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 12%

Q12 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 89%
African-American …………………………………….. 8%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%

Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older
than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 21%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%

Q14 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

Louisiana Toplines

Q1 The main candidates for U.S. Senate this fall
are Democrat Mary Landrieu, Republican Bill
Cassidy, and Republican Rob Maness. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Mary Landrieu…………………………………………. 43%
Bill Cassidy …………………………………………….. 35%
Rob Maness……………………………………………. 15%
Someone else…………………………………………. 1%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%

Q2 Combined horse race, with minor candidate
supporters and undecideds asked if they lean
Landrieu or Cassidy
Mary Landrieu…………………………………………. 47%
Bill Cassidy …………………………………………….. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 36%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mary
Landrieu’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Cassidy?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rob Maness?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%

Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
David Vitter’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Bobby Jindal’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 33%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q9 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 38%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 55%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 7%

Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 12%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 24%

Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 20%

Q13 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 65%
African-American …………………………………….. 30%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older
than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%

Q15 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

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