Polls

FL, MI, IL gov races all too close to call

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s final polls for Governor in Florida, Michigan, and Illinois find incredibly tight contests in all three states.

Florida is the closest. Rick Scott and Charlie Crist both have 44%, with Libertarian Adrian Wyllie polling at 6%. PPP usually has a policy of not releasing poll results to the decimal, but when we find a tie on our final poll of the cycle somewhere we make an exception. Crist is at 44.0% to 43.8% for Scott- in terms of raw respondents to the poll that’s 526 for Crist and 524 for Scott. Wyllie may be playing a spoiler role for Crist’s hopes of defeating Scott- those saying they support Wyllie would prefer Crist to Scott by 25 points, 43/18. In a straight head to head contest Crist leads Scott 47/46.

In Michigan Rick Snyder is clinging to a 46/45 lead over Mark Schauer. Our polling in this race has been remarkably consistent since Labor Day. Snyder has led by 1 points, 2 points, 1 point, been tied, and now he leads by 1 point on our final poll. Supporters of the third party candidates and leaners prefer Schauer over Snyder by 12 points though, so in a straight head to head contest they are tied at 47. After being under water for most of the election cycle on his approval, Snyder’s final numbers come in at 46% approve and 45% disapprove, mirroring his one point lead. Gary Peters looks to be headed for a double digit victory in the Michigan Senate race, leading Terri Lynn Land 51/38 in the full field and 54/41 head to head.

Pat Quinn is one of the most unpopular Governors in the country. Only 31% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 54% who disapprove. But he’s still clinging to a slight lead for reelection over Republican challenger Bruce Rauner, 47/45. Only 58% of Democrats approve of the job Quinn is doing, but 83% are nevertheless voting for him. Rauner is under water on his favorability but still in much better standing than Quinn, at 39/42. This is a race where the Libertarian candidate could play spoiler for GOP hopes. Chad Grimm is only polling at 3%, but those voting for him say they would pick Rauner over Quinn 54/14. In a head to head without him Quinn and Rauner would be tied at 48.

PPP surveyed 1,064 likely voters in Illinois, 1,198 likely voters in Florida, and 914 likely voters in Michigan on November 1st and 2nd. The margins of error for the surveys are +/-3.0%, +/-2.8%, and +/-3.2% respectively. 80% of interviews for each poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here (FL), here (IL), and here (MI).

Florida Toplines

Q1 The candidates for Governor this fall are
Republican Rick Scott, Democrat Charlie Crist,
and Libertarian Adrian Wyllie. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
Rick Scott……………………………………………….. 44%
Charlie Crist ……………………………………………. 44%
Adrian Wyllie…………………………………………… 6%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%

Q2 Combined horse race, with Wyllie supporters
and undecideds asked if they lean Scott or
Crist
Rick Scott……………………………………………….. 46%
Charlie Crist ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q3 The candidates for Attorney General are
Republican Pam Bondi, Democrat George
Sheldon, and Libertarian Bill Wohlsifer. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Pam Bondi ……………………………………………… 46%
George Sheldon………………………………………. 37%
Bill Wohlsifer …………………………………………… 5%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%

Q4 The candidates for Chief Financial Officer are
Republican Jeff Atwater and Democrat Will
Rankin. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Jeff Atwater…………………………………………….. 51%
Will Rankin……………………………………………… 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%

Q5 The candidates for Commissioner of
Agriculture are Republican Adam Putnam and
Democrat Thad Hamilton. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Adam Putnam…………………………………………. 49%
Thad Hamilton ………………………………………… 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%

Q6 Amendment 2 would allow the medical use of
marijuana for individuals with debilitating
diseases, as determined by a licensed Florida
physician. If the election was today, would you
vote for or against Amendment 2?
For ………………………………………………………… 53%
Against…………………………………………………… 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%

Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 39%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Scott’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charlie Crist?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Marco Rubio’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q11 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bill
Nelson’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%

Q12 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 7%

Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 34%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%

Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 23%

Q16 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2. If
African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 13%
White …………………………………………………….. 69%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older
than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%

Q18 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

Michigan Toplines

Q1 The candidates for Governor are Republican
Rick Snyder, Democrat Mark Schauer,
Libertarian Mary Buzuma, Green Party
candidate Paul Homeniuk, and U.S. Taxpayers
Party candidate Mark McFarlin. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
Rick Snyder ……………………………………………. 46%
Mark Schauer …………………………………………. 45%
Mary Buzuma………………………………………….. 3%
Paul Homeniuk ……………………………………….. 1%
Mark McFarlin…………………………………………. 0%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%

Q2 Combined horse race, with third-party
supporters and undecideds asked if they lean
Snyder or Schauer
Rick Snyder ……………………………………………. 47%
Mark Schauer …………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q3 The candidates for U.S. Senate are Republican
Terri Lynn Land, Democrat Gary Peters,
Libertarian Jim Fulner, Green Party candidate
Chris Wahmhoff, and U.S. Taxpayers Party
candidate Richard Matkin. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Terri Lynn Land ……………………………………….. 38%
Gary Peters…………………………………………….. 51%
Jim Fulner ………………………………………………. 2%
Chris Wahmhoff ………………………………………. 1%
Richard Matkin………………………………………… 1%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%

Q4 Combined horse race, with third-party
supporters and undecideds asked if they lean
Land or Peters
Terri Lynn Land ……………………………………….. 41%
Gary Peters…………………………………………….. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q5 The candidates for Attorney General are
Republican Bill Schuette, Democrat Mark
Totten, Liberatarian Justin Altman, Green Party
candidate John Anthony LaPietra, and U.S.
Taxpayers Party candidate Gerald Van Sickle.
If the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Bill Schuette……………………………………………. 47%
Mark Totten…………………………………………….. 37%
Justin Altman ………………………………………….. 3%
John Anthony LaPietra……………………………… 1%
Gerald Van Sickle ……………………………………. 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q6 The candidates for Secretary of State are
Republican Ruth Johnson, Democrat Godfrey
Dillard, Libertarian Jamie Lewis, Natural Law
Party candidate Jason Gatties, and U.S.
Taxpayers Party candidate Robert Gale. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Ruth Johnson………………………………………….. 46%
Godfrey Dillard………………………………………… 38%
Jamie Lewis ……………………………………………. 4%
Jason Gatties………………………………………….. 1%
Robert Gale ……………………………………………. 1%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Snyder’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Schauer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Terri Lynn Land?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Peters?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q12 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Carl
Levin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q13 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Debbie Stabenow’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q14 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 7%

Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%

Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 32%

Q18 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 80%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%

Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older
than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 11%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 19%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%

Q20 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

Illinois Toplines

Q1 The candidates for Governor are Democrat Pat
Quinn, Republican Bruce Rauner, and
Libertarian Chad Grimm. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Pat Quinn……………………………………………….. 47%
Bruce Rauner………………………………………….. 45%
Chad Grimm …………………………………………… 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%

Q2 Combined horse race, with Grimm supporters
and undecideds asked if they lean Quinn or
Rauner
Pat Quinn……………………………………………….. 48%
Bruce Rauner………………………………………….. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q3 The candidates for U.S. Senate are Democrat
Dick Durbin, Republican Jim Oberweis, and
Libertarian Sharon Hansen. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Dick Durbin …………………………………………….. 51%
Jim Oberweis ………………………………………….. 41%
Sharon Hansen……………………………………….. 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%

Q4 Combined horse race, with Hansen supporters
and undecideds asked if they lean Durbin or
Oberweis
Dick Durbin …………………………………………….. 52%
Jim Oberweis ………………………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Pat
Quinn’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 31%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bruce Rauner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Dick
Durbin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Oberweis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%

Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Kirk’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%

Q11 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 5%

Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 12%

Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 29%

Q15 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2. If
African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 8%
White …………………………………………………….. 72%
African-American …………………………………….. 14%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older
than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%

Q17 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

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