Polls

Alaskans down on Palin, potential 2016 bid

| Tom Jensen

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Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s newest Alaska poll finds that voters in the state continue to hold a very dim view of Sarah Palin and any aspirations she might have about running for President in 2016. Only 36% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of Palin to 55% who view her negatively. Just 20% would like to see her make a bid for the White House, compared to 74% who think she should sit it out. There’s actually almost as many Democrats- 17%- who want Palin to run as there are Republicans- 23%- suggesting there are as many Alaskans who want to see her run for the entertainment value as because they actually want her to be President.

Palin finishes 6th when it comes to who Republican voters want to be the 2016 Presidential candidate in her home state. Ted Cruz leads with 16%, followed by Rand Paul at 15%, Mike Huckabee at 14%, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie at 12%, Palin at 11%, Scott Walker at 7%, Paul Ryan at 6%, and Marco Rubio at 5%.

Beyond the lack of enthusiasm for her among Republicans, Palin also has the dubious distinction of being the only potential GOP candidate who would trail Hillary Clinton in a head to head match up- Clinton leads Palin 46/40. The rest of the potential Republican hopefuls all lead Clinton by at least 8 points- Huckabee leads her 47/39, Bush has a 47/38 advantage, Christie is on top 45/34, and Paul has a 50/36 edge.

Of course Palin seems more interested in money making opportunities than seeking elected office again anyway- but her new internet TV channel isn’t likely to get a lot of traction in Alaska- only 4% of voters in the state say they’re interested in buying a subscription to it compared to 89% who say they won’t and 7% who are unsure.

“It’s been more than 5 years since Sarah Palin quit as Governor of Alaska,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “And there’s no evidence that her image is getting any better.”

PPP surveyed 673 Alaska voters, including 337 Republican primary voters, from July 31st to August 3rd. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/-3.8% and for the Republicans it’s +/-5.3%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Lisa
Murkowski’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q2 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed, or not?
Think it should be allowed…………………………. 49%
Think it should not be……………………………….. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q3 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..46%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………26%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q4 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 38%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q5 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 34%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q6 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 39%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q7 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Sarah
Palin, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 46%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q8 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 36%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q10 Do you think Sarah Palin should run for
President in 2016, or not?
Think she should run………………………………… 20%
Think she should not………………………………… 74%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q11 Sarah Palin has a new Internet TV channel that
costs $9.95 a month. Do you plan to purchase
a subscription to her online TV channel, or not?
Plan to purchase a subscription…………………. 4%
Do not plan to …………………………………………. 89%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q12 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 39%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 11%

Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%

Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%

Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 20%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 47%

Q16 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 78%
Other……………………………………………………… 22%

Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 18%

Q18 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Rand
Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Scott
Walker, who would you most like to see as the
GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 12%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 12%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 16%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 14%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 11%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 15%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 5%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 6%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 7%
Someone else / Not sure ………………………….. 4%

Q2 Do you think Sarah Palin should run for
President in 2016, or not?
Think she should run………………………………… 21%
Think she should not………………………………… 72%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q3 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 24%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 33%

Q4 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 45%
Man……………………………………………………….. 55%

Q5 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1.If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 34%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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