Polls

Hagan widens lead on Tillis

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. —
The latest PPP poll shows incumbent Democratic Senator Kay Hagan growing a lead over Republican State House Speaker Thom Tillis. Hagan leads Tillis 41/34 with Libertarian Sean Haugh receiving 8% of the vote and 16% of voters still undecided. The gap between Hagan and Tillis is even wider among women where Hagan leads Tillis 44/27.

Tillis is forced to contend with incredibly low approval numbers; both personally and in terms of the statewide perception of the legislature. Tillis has a 24% favorability rating compared to 47% unfavorable. The Legislature has a 19% approval rating and a 57% disapproval rating; even among Republican voters the Legislature faces a 44% disapproval while only 31% of Republicans approve of the Legislature. In addition, statewide Republicans within the Legislature have a 31% favorability rating to 52% unfavorable.

Hagan herself is facing an uphill battle in terms of approval, 40% of statewide voters approve of Hagan’s job performance to 50% who disapprove. Hagan has a stronger base than Tillis does. Hagan’s approval among Democrats is at 66% while Tillis’ favorability among Republicans is only 39%.

The Legislature faces additional unpopularity on the issue of teacher pay. Across the state 54% of voters do not believe that the Legislature is making a good faith effort to raise teacher pay while only 31% believe that are making a good-faith effort.

“Kay Hagan’s lead just continues to rise as the legislature spends longer and longer and longer in session,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The big question though is whether she’ll be able to sustain this bigger lead once they’ve gone home, or if the race will quickly return back to normal like it did last year.”

PPP surveyed 1062 North Carolina voters from July 17th to 20th. The margin of error for the sample is +/-3.0 %. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Hagan’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sean Haugh?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%

Q5 The candidates for U.S. Senate are Democrat
Kay Hagan, Republican Thom Tillis, and
Libertarian Sean Haugh. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 41%
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 34%
Sean Haugh……………………………………………. 8%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%

Q6 Horse race, with Haugh supporters allocated to
whether they lean Hagan or Tillis
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 42%
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q7 The candidates for one North Carolina
Supreme Court seat this fall are Robin Hudson
and Eric Levinson. If the election was today,
who would you vote for?
Robin Hudson …………………………………………. 21%
Eric Levinson ………………………………………….. 14%
Undecided………………………………………………. 65%

Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the
General Assembly is doing?
Approve …………………………………………………. 19%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republicans in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q10 Would you be more or less likely to vote for a
candidate who wants to restrict access to
affordable birth control, or would it not make a
difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 19%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 54%
Wouldn’t make a difference……………………….. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q11 Do you think it is appropriate for Thom Tillis to
be fundraising while North Carolina doesn’t
have a budget, or not?
Think it’s appropriate………………………………… 24%
Think it’s not……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%

Q12 Do you think the General Assembly is making a
good-faith effort to raise teacher pay, or not?
Think they are…………………………………………. 31%
Think they are not ……………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q13 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 6%

Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%

Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 22%

Q17 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
African-American …………………………………….. 20%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are 65
or older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%

Q19 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

Q20 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 9%
336………………………………………………………… 15%
704………………………………………………………… 14%
828………………………………………………………… 13%
910………………………………………………………… 12%
919………………………………………………………… 18%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

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