Polls

McCrory still unpopular, opposition to gay marriage declines

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s newest North Carolina poll finds that Pat McCrory remains unpopular, and would find himself in a toss up contest for reelection. 40% of voters approve of the job McCrory’s doing to 45% who disapprove. This marks the 10th month in a row McCrory’s approval numbers have been under water. McCrory finds himself tied in a hypothetical contest with Attorney General Roy Cooper at 43%. Cooper is unknown to 50% of North Carolinians, but among those who do have an opinion about him 33% see him favorably to 17% with a negative view.

PPP continues to find that North Carolina is likely to maintain its new found swing state status in 2016 if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic candidate for President. Clinton leads all of her potential Republican opponents in the state by small margins- it’s 45/44 over Jeb Bush, 46/44 over Chris Christie, 47/43 over Rand Paul, and 48/43 over Mike Huckabee.

In 2012 North Carolinians voted by a 22 point margin to ban gay marriage in the state. Now less than 2 years later voters say they oppose gay marriage by only 13 points, mirroring the kind of movement we’ve seen on the issue across the country. 40% say they think it should be legal to 53% who continue to think it should be illegal. Showing the direction things are headed in on the issue, 62% of young voters support it to only 33% who believe it should be illegal. There is increasingly little division among voters in the state about whether gay couples should at least have some sort of legal rights in the form of civil unions. 62% support either marriage or civil unions for same sex couples to only 34% who think they should have no legal recognition at all. 68% of both Democrats and independents support at least civil unions, and even Republicans narrowly do by a 50/48 spread.

“At the rate things are moving a plurality of North Carolinians will likely support gay marriage in the next 5 years or so,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “There’s been a lot of movement just in the last 2 years and that’s likely to continue.”

PPP surveyed 740 registered voters from April 3rd to 6th, including 314 Republican primary voters. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.6%, and for the Republicans it’s +/-5.5%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Pat
McCrory’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Roy Cooper?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charles Meeker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%

Q4 If the candidates for Governor in 2016 were
Republican Pat McCrory and Democrat Roy
Cooper, who would you vote for?
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 43%
Roy Cooper…………………………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q5 If the candidates for Governor in 2016 were
Republican Pat McCrory and Democrat
Charles Meeker, who would you vote for?
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 45%
Charles Meeker ………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Richard Burr’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 30%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%

Q7 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 45%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q8 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 46%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q9 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 48%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q10 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 47%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the city of Charlotte?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%

Q12 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the
General Assembly is doing?
Approve …………………………………………………. 23%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%

Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Democrats in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republicans in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q15 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
the state legislature today, would you vote for
the Democratic or Republican candidate from
your district?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q16 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage to $10 an hour?
Support ………………………………………………….. 54%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q17 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Koch brothers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%

Q18 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed, or not?
Think it should be allowed…………………………. 40%
Think it should not be……………………………….. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q19 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..36%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………26%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q20 Is your favorite Major League Baseball team
the Atlanta Braves, Baltimore Orioles, Boston
Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, New
York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Washington
Nationals, or some other team?
Braves …………………………………………………… 32%
Orioles …………………………………………………… 4%
Red Sox…………………………………………………. 9%
Cubs ……………………………………………………… 2%
Reds ……………………………………………………… 2%
Yankees …………………………………………………. 10%
Rays ……………………………………………………… 0%
Nationals………………………………………………… 1%
Some other team / Don’t have a favorite……… 39%

Q21 Is your favorite baseball team in North Carolina
the Asheville Tourists, Burlington Royals,
Carolina Mudcats, Charlotte Knights, Durham
Bulls, Greensboro Grasshoppers, Hickory
Crawdads, Kannapolis Intimidators, or Winston
-Salem Dash?
Tourists ………………………………………………….. 8%
Royals……………………………………………………. 2%
Mudcats …………………………………………………. 13%
Knights…………………………………………………… 9%
Bulls………………………………………………………. 17%
Grasshoppers …………………………………………. 7%
Crawdads……………………………………………….. 5%
Intimidators …………………………………………….. 4%
Dash ……………………………………………………… 7%
Some other team / Don’t have a favorite……… 26%

Q22 Would you like a Major League Baseball
franchise in North Carolina?
Yes………………………………………………………… 47%
No …………………………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%

Q23 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 4%

Q24 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%

Q25 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q26 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 22%

Q27 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 20%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q28 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are 65
or older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%

Q29 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

Q30 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 11%
336………………………………………………………… 15%
704………………………………………………………… 14%
828………………………………………………………… 10%
910………………………………………………………… 11%
919………………………………………………………… 19%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Rand
Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Scott
Walker, who would you most like to see as the
GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 18%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 12%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 12%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 22%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 2%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 9%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 5%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 9%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 7%
Someone else / Not sure ………………………….. 6%

Q2 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 21%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 32%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 39%

Q3 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%

Q4 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are 65 or older, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 32%

Q5 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 9%
336………………………………………………………… 19%
704………………………………………………………… 20%
828………………………………………………………… 13%
910………………………………………………………… 12%
919………………………………………………………… 15%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 12%

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